So Russia and Georgia just went to war

[StateBoiler]

My brother read that Russia could have staged this purposely during the Olympics because most of the world leaders are in Beijing. Anyone think it's possible?

Based on what I've read from various websites, I think the Georgians and South Ossetians were skirmishing for a week. It could be that the Russians just decided to respond this time and help their "friends", and all the world leaders are in Beijing, which one must admit is a nice side effect, although to be honest I think most of them have cell phones.

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Listen to the Georgian President talk, you can tell this guy's an idiot. Him and his information minister are doing impersonations of Baghdad Bob.

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So let's get this straight, this is a breakaway region you haven't controlled for 15 years because you got stalemated by the "awesome firepower" of the South Ossetian military, and add on to that now you have superior Russian aircraft shooting at you and the Russian military involved (who have a bit more firepower, manpower, and expertise than South Ossetia), yet you still managed to gain back every town but one within a day? Sure. Imbecile.

[StateBoiler]

Listen to the Georgian President talk, you can tell this guy's an idiot. Him and his information minister are doing impersonations of Baghdad Bob.

What the hell do you want him to do? Admit all is lost and surrender to Russia?

No, just be honest and not be Baghdad Bob.

The only way Georgia will ever control South Ossetia and Abkhazia (the other breakaway republic from Georgia that is sympathetic to Russia) is with long-term NATO involvement and a significant military investment on our part and the European Union.

Russia is the United States military in this conflict. Georgia is the Iraq military. Per the CIA World Factbook, Russia has 1 million standing troops. Georgia has 17,500.

He should just be realistic by not stating he controls nearly the entirety of the territory when anyone that knows anything about military geopolitics in the world can see in 5 seconds he's lying. If you're a CIA of State Department official, it would make you take a pause before working with the guy. If he can't grasp reality, would you commit resources to him? So he's really doing nothing but hurting his country and his countrymen with such statements. If this conflict goes on as it is currently, the best end result he can hope for is Russia loses interest in fighting and it ends in a stalemate. The Georgian President can then claim victory by not suffering total defeat, similar to Hezbollah when they fought Israel in the July War. He's been itching to fight Russia for awhile now, he finally got his wish.

If anyone is interested, here's a comprohensive list of news articles on the conflict and some background information on South Ossetia from The Small Wars Journal.

http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2008/08/flash-point-south-ossetia/

[StateBoiler]

If we really want to spread blame around, Stalin started it. After all, Ossetia was not a part of Georgia until he shoved it into the Georgian SSR.

That would mean Franklin Roosevelt instigated the Korean War though.

Factoid I saw, this is the Kremlin's first deployment of Russian soldiers in a conflict in a foreign country since before the Soviet Union dissolved. Their last deployment was in 1989 when they were pulling out of Afghanistan, 19 years ago.

[StateBoiler]

Listen to the Georgian President talk, you can tell this guy's an idiot. Him and his information minister are doing impersonations of Baghdad Bob.

What the hell do you want him to do? Admit all is lost and surrender to Russia?

No, just be honest and not be Baghdad Bob.

The only way Georgia will ever control South Ossetia and Abkhazia (the other breakaway republic from Georgia that is sympathetic to Russia) is with long-term NATO involvement and a significant military investment on our part and the European Union.

Russia is the United States military in this conflict. Georgia is the Iraq military. Per the CIA World Factbook, Russia has 1 million standing troops. Georgia has 17,500.

He should just be realistic by not stating he controls nearly the entirety of the territory when anyone that knows anything about military geopolitics in the world can see in 5 seconds he's lying. If you're a CIA of State Department official, it would make you take a pause before working with the guy. If he can't grasp reality, would you commit resources to him? So he's really doing nothing but hurting his country and his countrymen with such statements. If this conflict goes on as it is currently, the best end result he can hope for is Russia loses interest in fighting and it ends in a stalemate.

I think he's trying to reassure a nation faced by overwhelming odds and doubt he actually believes he controls South Ossetia. I'm sure he can grasp reality just fine.

Your last sentence is incredibly naïve. Putin's Russia has imperial ambitions and hates Georgia for allying itself with the West. It's unimaginable that Russia will suddently lose interest in fighting a county it has had tensions with since Saakashvili got to power. Russia will not settle for anything less than a humiliating defeat for Georgia and will probably force it to surrender not only South Ossetia but Abkhazia as well.

I don't blame him if he wants to instill confidence. But you don't do that by lying to the population and your soldiers.

Saakashvili is about to learn the first law of a Chicago Street Fight: "If you can talk the talk, you better be able to walk the walk." Regardless of whether the Georgian President likes it or not, his neighbor is Russia, they have better equipment, more manpower, and are itching to get back to being a world power. His actions are about as stupid as if Mongolia ever wanted to pick a fight with China. And that's what he did, he picked a fight with Russia, and he got it.

And Georgia doesn't have South Ossetia or Abkhazia, and hasn't for more than 15 years now. That's reality. Just like Serbia doesn't have Kosovo anymore. That's reality.

Don't get me wrong, I wish them the best. But what they did makes as much sense as me picking a fight with Mike Tyson.

[StateBoiler]

Russia has been commiting blatant acts of war against Georgia for well over a year now and Georgia has not adequately retaliated precisely because it knew it doesn't stand a chance against Russia. But it was only a matter of time before Russia opted for an all-out invasion.

You don't read the news do you?

This is the Fox News article:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,400741,00.html

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Rebels would be South Ossetian nationals, and Georgia was responding to those; so the original instigator was not from Russia, per Fox News.

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This is an article from American media, and in this case on Fox News' website.

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Exactly. I've lost a number of poker games this way.

[StateBoiler]

Russia has been commiting blatant acts of war against Georgia for well over a year now and Georgia has not adequately retaliated precisely because it knew it doesn't stand a chance against Russia. But it was only a matter of time before Russia opted for an all-out invasion.

You don't read the news do you?

You have no background knowledge on the situation except what brief news articles give you, don't you?

On the contrary, I love geopolitics and I read up on it a good bit. The whole chess game nature of it has always interested me.

[StateBoiler]

In A.D. 2008

War was beginning.

Saakashvili: What happen ?

Georgian Military Commander: Somebody set up us the bomb.

Secretary: We get signal.

Saakashvili: What !

Secretary: Main screen turn on.

Saakashvili: It's you !!

Putin: How are you gentlemen !!

Putin: All your base are belong to us.

Putin: You are on the way to destruction.

Saakashvili: What you say !!

Putin: You have no chance to survive make your time.

Putin: Ha ha ha ha ....

Secretary: Captain !! *

Saakashvili: Take off every 'MiG'!!

Saakashvili: You know what you doing.

Saakashvili: Move 'MiG'.

Saakashvili: For great justice.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4AuN6pN1kY

Gotta love the Japanese.

[StateBoiler]

Here is a video news report on MSNBC from (I guess their partner) ITV:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/26095477#26095477

Right after that is an interview with Richard Holbrooke, the former U.N. Ambassador. Sounds like the U.S. will be 100% behind Georgia.

[StateBoiler]

Some more videos. :

http://life.ru/video/4932

[StateBoiler]

Pretty old news at this point, but (as far as I can tell) hasn't been reported on here.

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Seems the Russians are making the most of their opportunity to bomb the hell out of Georgia.

Yup.

Latest BBC article:

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[StateBoiler]

I actually agree with StatesRights here, Putin's Russia is super manipulative and wants a large Russian sphere.

Well no sh*t. Russia's looking out for Russia's interests. Georgia's looking out for Georgia's interests. Those interersts intersect and that's why there is war. A lot of people in this thread need to go read Clausewitz. It'll do you some good.

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[StateBoiler]

Here's an article written by an American armchair admiral.

http://informationdissemination.blogspot.com/2008/08/observing-outbreak-of-war-in-georgia.html

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This is the first sign of DoD mobilization for the military events unfolding in Georgia, and simply saying it out loud is sure to bring in a political perspective. Cutting through the spin, the Air Force has been asked and may be ordered to conduct a major airlift from Iraq to Georgia of all 2000 Georgian troops that have been part of the coalition forces in Iraq. That is certainly one twist in events we intend to keep an eye on. The politics of using an air base in Iraq to support an airlift into a war zone outside Iraq is the stuff the political spinners dream about.

Day two of the conflict featured a massive increase in Russian air power, including the use of Russian Strategic Bombers hitting Air Bases and other targets in Georgia. The number of sorties increased by about 4 fold, and we expect will continue to increase. We note this in the NY Times article, which implies escalation is likely.

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Last night the Russian Air Force reportedly devastated the Georgian Black Sea port of Poti. Local language (unverified) internet reports suggest both the Slava class cruiser Moskva and the Kara class cruiser Kerch are part of Russian naval group that deployed, and the Kilo class submarine Alrosa was reportedly not in port. The number of and types of other Russian naval vessels has not been reported. Speculation by some local sources suggests an amphibious operation may be in the works. Specifically there are some local internet reports of activity among the three Ropucha class LSTs. We want to reiterate that these reports are unverified, but note that because of where these unofficial internet reports are coming from, they may be credible.

Several implications here. The use of air power in the Kodori Gorge in Abkhazia and if Amphibious forces are soon to put to sea, the implication is Russia may be looking to opening a second front. The movement of the Black Sea Fleet towards Georgia could be a tactical move to cut off supply to Georgia, and nothing says 'turn around' faster than a Kilo SSK guarding the port entrance. These types of major events give implication that Russia is moving towards a campaign of consolidation, rather than a peacekeeping action. The next few days will tell the story, but it looks like we may need to redraw some border lines in that region in the near future.

Georgia is not well known by Americans, and while we can hear the stories, read the history, and understand the events it is still very difficult to follow events of war in foreign lands. Luckily, it is easier to follow war from home in the 21st century than any other time in history, and all you need is a little advice. This is our advice.

Use the map in this post as a cross reference with Google Earth. Zoom in on Georgia and follow the press reports. While not all places are on the Google Earth map, most are, and one can use markers to track air strikes and where ground forces are based on press reports. Using about twenty press reports this morning we were able to track air strikes and where the ground combat is taking place, thus get a good feel for how early events are unfolding. These are amateur tools using open source media information, but if you were a professional, you would already have the tools to track the action.

We note that despite a number of bombings very near the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, it is reported that the pipeline has 'miraculously' survived undamaged. Such miracles in war are hardly so accidental. As the pipeline is a strategically important aspect of the Georgian economy, but is also a very important part of the regional economy, it is just one more odd detail worth keeping an eye on.

While we are aware of US Navy activity in the Black Sea, we will let other news sources discuss specific forces in the region. It is enough to say the US Navy is there, with exactly the kind of capabilities one would want the US to have in a confusing, evolving war where one country may feel obligated to protect themselves from an attack by sea. Should Georgia open up with anti-ship missiles against Russian targets at sea, or if either side should engage in unrestricted war at sea in the eastern Black Sea, the US Navy does not have the forces in the region yet to protect or support unarmed commercial vessels. Our advice to commercial shipping is to run west, those waters to the east are not safe.[/quote]

[StateBoiler]

Azerbaijan is actually giving vocal support to Georgia. Not very surprising but does this mean anything?

Well Russia did the same thing to them in the early 1990s over Nagorno karabakh so it makes sense they would have little tolerance for the Russian "we are supporting separatists in your borders under the guise of peacekeepers" game.

Nagorno-Karabakh is not an issue between Russia and Azerbaijan, it's an issue between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It's something like a 75% majority Armenian region completely surrounded by Azerbaijan.

In response to Idaho's question, unless Azerbaijan commits troops to help Georgia, their support is not worth a rat's ass.

[StateBoiler]

There's been three new articles on the conflict on an armchair admiral's blog I read.

http://informationdissemination.blogspot.com/

I suggest reading all three, but here are the highlights. All times are eastern U.S. time:

Article at 9:50pm last night:

-A lot of "noise" out there as far as what is reliable info and what is not
-Both states are controlling outgoing info and sending out both accurate and inaccurate info
-Georgian internet still on; Russia have been disruptive with cyber attacks, Russia has pounded military and specific government websites; Russia have not eliminated bandwidth, but are jamming the satellites
-Ukrainian sources are updating every 2-3 hours on action going on at Russia's Black Sea staging area; so Russia is doing stuff out there right in the open
-Ukrainians have mixed feelings on the conflict; the entire fight is about Russia from their end and whether you're pro-Russia or anti-Russia, no one cares about Georgia
-Georgian forces are putting up quite a fight
-conventional Russian forces have not entered the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali; Tskhinvali is being ruled by snipers; vehicles on both sides take a pounding when visible; Russia does not appear to have sufficient infantry yet
-Russia is working to surround the city with armor and mechanized forces, and intends to enter the city with infantry to support the mechanized units; he notes that this was the U.S. strategy when they took over Fallujah
-the 58th Army of Russia has suffered some damage, conflicting reports on how much; Georgia is having a degree of success with irregular and conventional forces
-both countries have used artillery on Tskhinvali and the city has been blasted to hell
-civilian death toll probably higher than being reported
-Georgian air force still flying sorties, he says this is incredible!

Midnight article:

-NY Times reports Russian navy dispatched from Ukrainian Black Sea base and will land troops in a port city in Abkhazia called Ochamchire
-Russia notified western governments it was moving ships toward Abkhazia
-on July 31st, Russia announced that Ochamchire in Abkhazia had a major railroad completed going toward it; he ventures this means it will be a logistical base
-it could also be that Ochamchire will just be a "ferry point" from the larger Russian port of Adler, 100 miles north of Abkhazia and thus bypassing land transport in the tough terrain

2:10am article:

-Georgian Army gave withdrawel orders to forces in Tskhinvali; began around 5am local time
-more than 100 Georgian soldiers were killed by all-night artillery, city is completely destroyed, civilian casualties are very high

10:50am article today:

-Russian navy confirmed that a section of the Black Sea Fleet was heading to the Georgian coastline and it included a missile cruiser; three assault ships were earlier sent to the same destination
-Georgian government statement says Russia sent 4000 troops to Ochamchire and have already landed; author notes that if all seven ships that were sent were fully loaded, they couldn't carry 4000 troops, and wonders if Russia had sent more ships than are being reported, maybe a commercial ship
-Ukraine not excited about being a forward operating naval base for Russia and has threatened to block ships helping the Russian campaign from returning; author questions practical effects of this, and that this war has exposed a Russian weakness in the Black Sea with its basing
-Russia has put in place a blockade on Georgia, denying passage for a Moldovan-flagged ship, but is denying it is doing so; he notes that up to this point, Russia had been fairly honest about what they've been doing in that they've not hidden their desire to secure Abkhazia and South Ossetia and this marks a departure from that
-in international law, a blockade is an official act of war (see Cuban Missile Crisis and why we called a blockade a quarantine)
-with the Georgian withdrawel from South Ossetia, Russian's stated position of "peacekeepers" has reached its limit as since the opponent's army has withdrawn, there's no reason to fight against them
-the ball is in Russia's court, and the question is how far it will push and what the world will do if they decide to do so

[StateBoiler]

The Georgian President right now is on CNN stating his case.

[StateBoiler]

What are the chances of Ukraine getting involved militarily?

If they're smart, zero.

[StateBoiler]

This is...crazy. From the Guardian:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug/10/georgia.russia4

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Chechen peacekeepers and Cossack volunteers. That's the ticket.

[StateBoiler]

I am not suprised the Russian Army is having trouble. Its performance in Chechnya was unimpressive, and man for man it is vastly inferior to the Georgian forces.

Part of Chechnya was Soviet aftermath and how the troops weren't getting a lot in the way of a paycheck, not to mention lack of maintenance to equipment. That problem doesn't exist now what with the energy market. But like was stated elsewhere, this was Russia's first foreign deployment in 19 years. You have to go way back to when Gorbachev was in power. There's certain to be cobwebs. One of the nice side effects of temporary excursions that the U.S. military does every so often is it provides on-the-job training to our military for when the "real" fight comes.

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Agree. This is Israel's main problem with their neighbors. They're technologically superior, but the neighbors can afford to be far more expendable with their forces.

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This is where we can tell the strategic intelligence of Putin, Medvedev, and the other people that run the country. Soviet Cold War strategy was always based on using Eastern Europe as a buffer. If I were running Russia, I wouldn't want to annex Georgia, I'd just use it as a buffer state while hinting to Georgians to vote for leaders that don't openly hate us or want to join NATO. Looking at a map, Abkhazia makes sense to annex. South Ossetia just from looking at a map looks indefensible to me. It's just a finger sticking out into Georgia and could get attacked from three directions.

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I disagree. Because Russia rejects the wisdom of the EU and what they think about Russia's own elections as a matter of sovereignty. So if they used the EU's point about the Georgian leader's election, that means that Russia would be admitting the EU would also have a point on how Russian elections are carried out, which the Russians categorically reject.

[StateBoiler]

Apparently Chechen militia are "destroying villages in South Ossetia", at least so says SkyNews...
EDIT:
Ok, clarification:

SkyNews breaking news:

Russia using "Chechen militia" to ethnically-cleanse Georgian villages.

I'm at Sky News' website and not seeing this. Provide link por favor?

[StateBoiler]

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1831523,00.html

[StateBoiler]

So, what do you guys think the chances of Russian tanks rolling into Tbilisi are?

As prepared as they were for this war that they are claiming was started "by the other guy" I'd guess that was their plan the whole time.  You don't just pull a column of tanks out of your butt.

Yes. The Russians had very good inside intelligence in Georgia. Saakashvili like the dumb motherf***er he is made the decision to move forces into South Ossetia and the Russians probably knew within 15 minutes he'd done it.