McCrory takes this in November.
Doesn't have a chance in hell. 10% of the state always vote Republican for President and always vote Democrat for Governor, and it's those 10% that decide who wins every state election, the opinion of the other 90% is irrelevant. Take a look at the last 4 presidential/gubernatorial elections.
2004:
G.W. Bush (Rep) 56.0%, Kerry (Dem) 43.6%, Badnarik (Lib) 0.4%
Easley (Dem) 55.6%, Ballantine (Rep) 42.9%, Howe (Lib) 1.5%
12% of the state voted for Bush and then Easley. So 21% of Bush voters voted for Easley.
2000:
G.W. Bush (Rep) 56.0%, Gore (Dem) 43.2%, Browne (Lib) 0.4%, Buchanan (Ref) 0.3%
Easley (Dem) 52.0%, Vinroot (Rep) 46.3%, Howe (Lib) 1.5%, Schell (Ref) 0.3%
9% of the state voted for Bush and then Easley. So 16% of Bush voters voted for Easley.
1996:
Dole (Rep) 48.7%, Clinton (Dem) 44.0%, Perot (Ref) 6.7%, Browne (Lib) 0.4%, Other 0.2%
Hunt (Dem) 56.0%, Hayes (Rep) 42.8%, Yost (Lib) 0.7%, Van Witt (NL) 0.6%
At a minimum, 6% of the state voted for Dole and then Hunt. More likely number of around 10%. That equates to a range of between 12% and 21% of Dole voters voted for Hunt.
1992:
G.H.W. Bush (Rep) 43.4%, Clinton (Dem) 42.7%, Perot (Indy) 13.7%, Other 0.2%
Hunt (Dem) 52.7%, Gardner (Rep) 43.2%, McLaughlin (Lib) 4.1%
Hard to determine the number of floor-crossers due to Perot's presence, but Bush still outperformed the Republican nominee for governor despite another major candidate in his race that he lost votes to in Perot.
