Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[StateBoiler]

So is this Zelensky's master plan? Arming the citizenry and expecting people to turn their cities and towns into all-out war zones? Do the users in this thread promoting this idea understand the misery and destruction that insurgencies bring?

I'm not saying the people of Ukraine should give up without a fight, but there has to be a limit to what you expect of civilian populations.

Zelensky has been criminally incompetent. It's hard not to wonder if he's in league with the Russians at this point.

What evidence is there of that as opposed to the fact Ukraine is fundamentally outmatched militarily by Russia?

Observers say the loss of the airport is critical and came much earlier than Ukraine expected:

The helo assault at Antanov Airport is bold, very bold.

Seems like a bit of a crazy and unnecessary risk. Suggests to me the Russians have made a very dim assessment of the Ukranian forces to think they could take and hold it, and will get relief soon enough by ground forces. Perhaps thinking Ukrainian defense and counters would be weak and slow due to major element of surprise.

Not really. I have zero doubts that the Russians fully have intel assets spread across Ukraine. The Russians would have real time intel on the Ukrainian forces deployed at the airport and what is available for call up. What is bold is how this threw Kiev for a loop. I would have expected several points to be taken before the Russians made a move on Kiev. Hitting it on the first day meant that the Ukrainians were not only physically not prepared to receive the assault but also psychologically not prepared. Also showed just how unprepared the Ukrainians are. Yeah, I would have been surprised too but I would also have a [rapid response force] ready to respond.

Standard doctrine. Seize an airfield by airborne/air assault. Bring in reinforcements by air landing. You can bring in a metric sh**t ton of equipment and vehicles in AN-124s & 225s. If you notice the Ukrainian air defense networks were early targets.

[StateBoiler]

Mitt Romney was wrong in 2012, he remains wrong in 2022. China is clearly the biggest geopolitical foe and threat to the United States, whereas Russia is a regional threat to Europe, it is basically a negligible threat to the US itself.

Stated different, was Mitt Romney prescient in repeating old adages rooted in elderly nostalgia for Ronald Reagan and the Cold War Era? No, of course not, he was just appealing to dementia-ridden geezers in nursing homes who forgot that the Berlin Wall fell some 20 years before.

No. You're letting your political biases inform your thinking. China is a big threat to the U.S., there's a difference between that and what Obama said.

Barack Obama was correct: in the 1980s, what Mitt Romney said was accurate but, in 2012, China had cleared usurped the role that Russia once had when it was the USSR. Whether or not he explicitly invoked China is besides the point - Russia is only a regional power. Its post-imperial ambitions, however dangerous they might be to Europe, are basically limited to areas of Eurasia in close proximity to Russia. There is no Soviet-era desire to spread "world communism" or anything similar. Mitt Romney was playing on fears from this past era, not providing cogent analysis.

Even now, the intensity of the US response is partially driven by the desire to create a "penal code"/"grim trigger" to ward off a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. One country is actually our rival, the other is a rogue state of regional importance.

You're letting your political biases inform your thinking. That rogue state of regional importance has just created the largest war in Europe in 75 years and our country is tied by treaty into defending the sovereignty of most of the states of Europe.

Yes, yes - Russia is of regional importance. It poses a tremendous threat to Europe. The United States, of course, is separated from Europe by an ocean and is forced by its unique status as hegemon to be concerned about the world, not just one part of it. We are challenged by China, which vies for supremacy everywhere. Russia is chiefly concerned about its ability to pull various European countries into its orbit. As far as I can tell, there are no serious efforts to win power and influence in Africa or Latin America etc.

Look, I agree that China is our #1 threat and the AUKUS alliance legwork started by the Trump administration/finished by the Biden administration was the correct action to take. Since Obama made his comment Putin has annexed Crimea, destroyed Obama's and the West's plans in Syria, and now are wholesale invading Ukraine. It was a bad comment to make in exchange for laughs, and that quote is going to be in history texts students read 50 years from now.

[StateBoiler]

https://twitter.com/StratcomCentre/status/1496922915954216962?s=20&t=sVBQQ57...

So much for the “Russia has a superior army” argument. All I’m seeing is them getting their asses handed back to them.

If the destruction of this force is correct, we should not be overly optimistic.
It is my understanding that the Russian force at the Hostomel airport, was a small-ish troop force that was dropped by plane (airborne unit) or flown-in by large helicopters.

The Kyiv Post on Twitter posted an hour and a half ago that Antonov International Airport in Hostomel is taken over by Russian forces, via Mykhailo Podoliak, an adviser to the head of the president's office.

[StateBoiler]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1496933571352662028

Winds are projected to be northerly. So enjoy that Belarus.

That's bullsh**t.

So bit of a summary of the first day.

Russians started with a massive bombardment of every major Ukrainian airport, AA defense system, ammo depot and fuel station. At this point, we don't know the extent of the damages sustained during the attacks but experts say it's likely to be a serious blow and Russian warplanes/Helicopters flying across the western part of the country point to that as well.

Ukrainian army in the east of country handled the attacks well, counter-attacked, and even got the better of invading forces in many instances, These are the best trained and most battle-hardened troops. Particularly in Kharkiv Russians seem to have lost a lot, which I'm doubly happy about because that's where the Georgian contingent is stationed.

No such luck in the west. Along the Belarussian borders and Crimea, the defenses turned out to be ill-prepared and too light to handle the masses of Russian columns. Russians reached two major bridges in the south of the Dniepr river very fast.

In the near future, it's likely that Russians will try to blockade/take Kiyv. And the entire length of the Dniepr river - essentially encircling the best Ukrainian troops in the east and leaving them with little to no support/supply. The most dangerous right now is the situation around Kherson where Russians seem to be gallivanting towards Kyiv almost unchallenged. If Ukraine can't stop those columns this is going to be a short war.

The defenses across the Crimean border seem to have been criminally inadequate. If they had been stopped at the chokepoint we would be celebrating a successful day for Ukrainian defense forces overall, that's the key direction that significantly changes things in Russia's favor. The lack of response from Ukraine in that region seems to point to 2 things. 1) Russian missile strikes succeeded in breaking down key Ukrainian positions there and 2) Those positions were not adequately prepared and fortified, to begin with, which is a crime given how much of this assault was almost public knowledge before it even started.

Looking at a map, I think taking Kherson Oblast stabilizes the water supply for Crimea.

[StateBoiler]

Anyone wishing for a war of annihilation for the sake of “winning” is a psychopath, regardless of which side they want destroyed.

Being contrarian all of the time is the laziest intellectual position imaginable. Just stop.

We have people like Forumlurker who literally want to send Russia back to the Stone Age and kill whoever they view as an enemy. Opposing this isn’t being a “contrarian,” it’s standing up for what’s right. What Russia is pulling right now is evil without a doubt, and Ukraine should have international support, but fantasizes about destruction aren’t right.

Forumlurker is a lunatic who speaks only for himself.

That doesn’t change the fact that you’re being ridiculous. Wanting Russia to lose an unjustified war of aggression is not wrong. Winning a war requires defeating the opposing forces. Wanting that is not wrong. There is nothing wrong at all with hoping that that occurs in this case. Does that mean that we should hope for war crimes or “annihilating Russia”? No. But unless you were specifically talking about Forumlurker nobody was saying that.

The problem with getting militaristic every single time a bad guy steps out of line is that violence would become the modus operandi of literally all world powers. Perpetual war helps no one and we have to be very careful how we approach these issues.

The more countries that jump into a conflict, the worse it becomes.

That is, of course, if China sees this and sees weakness as a green light to go into Taiwan.

Not necessarily Taiwan, but my expectation is the PLA does something in the next decade.

[StateBoiler]

Looks like Hostomel airport has been recaptured by Ukraine, which is big. Means Russia will have to push to Kyiv overland now.

How recent is this news you are posting?
The recapture story has gone back and forth for the last couple of hours now.

Seems retracted again, sorry.

https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1496948163797819394?s=20&t=Tqueb2TF...

The story on control of the airport has gone back and forth a few times. We'll know in the morning.

[StateBoiler]

I wouldn't completely trust what either side says about who has control over Hostomel until there's good evidence besides "he said, she said".
But it's simultaneously quite interesting to see the spin being put out by political figures here.

The thing is it's Ukrainian sources that are going back and forth. They could have lost initially and then are throwing fresh units at it I suppose.

[StateBoiler]

Does anyone have a good source for the progress of the battle? It seems like there just isn’t any information at all which is to be expected but presumably there is massive fighting happening right?

Bearing in mind parts of this could be wrong.

Russians have air superiority taken out early in the day equipment at airports and anti-aircraft systems. Helicopters operating in western Ukraine support this.

Russian forces have stalled coming out of Donbass and Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine.

Russian and Belarussian forces have successfully moved south from Belarus. They're in Chernobyl which is a lightly populated natural pathway to take going from Belarus to Kiev. Blame appears to be too light a defense posture.

Russians have successfully moved north from Crimea. This front appears to be the greatest failing for Ukrainian defense.

A military airport right next to Kiev is in combat right now after Russian Airborne landed there. This op appears to have taken Ukraine by surprise that it happened first day of war. It's fluctuated in reports from Ukrainian forces of fallen to Russia to Ukraine has taken it back. If Russians take control of the airport they can fly in military equipment in cargo aircraft and lut it on Kiev's doorstep.

[StateBoiler]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-ukraine-warning-update-initial-russian-offensive-campaign-assessment

Early assessment of Russian campaign, published 6.5 hours ago as of me posting this.

[StateBoiler]

While i don't often agree with all pro-Ukraine statements, it's becoming clear to me who in this case is the agressor. Putin lives in a 10th world century ideal where he thinks Kiev belongs to Russia because it's where the Russian civilisation started 1000 years ago. What happened in the past, happened. I think it is time to move on. We live in the 21st century. If every country wants to take back what was once supposed to be theirs, you're gonna have a lot of wars, and Russia theirselves will have a lot of wars too, because Japan & Finland also have territories in Russia which was actually theirs.

I believe in diplomacy and in peace, but it is increasingly becoming clear Putin doesn't care for that at all, and that he also doesn't care about human suffering, as long they're no Russians. Putin is proving right now why NATO is needed. I wasn't supportive of NATO but Putin has proven that we need NATO after all, even today. I wasn't supportive of NATO but that certainly changed in the past weeks.

I believe in diplomacy and peace too, but diplomacy and peace after Georgia 2008 created this today. Diplomacy and peace after Crimea 2014 created this today. My complaint about Western civilization classical liberals (the old definition of liberal, not the American one) is they all believe in things like diplomacy, peace, and democracy, but don't you dare ask them to fight for and defend those things. They are soft people and soft people don't do well in a hard world.

One thing that should be taken from today by everyone is that the world never changes. There will always be assholes running countries, there will always be contests for power. You're a blind idiot to think that's all in the past and to think that defense expenditure is pointless. Just today, China sent 9 fighter jets into Taiwan airspace. Could they do a mission there shortly? Doubtful, but damn it'd be good timing with a distracted world, and there would go a lot of countries' considerable amounts of their semiconductor supply -the steel production of the 21st century.

[StateBoiler]

Russia is getting their asses handled to them.

I wish I was this optimistic We are getting allot of Russians losing small unit actions, but they are, as best I can tell, still advancing. Overwhelming manpower and air superiority is hard to stop once it starts rolling.

Guys. We're about 1 day into this conflict. It's early days. I remember the Georgia war. There were lots of people on message boards with reports of Russian ineptitude and Georgians defeating them. In the end it was either mostly bullsh**t or didn’t matter, Russia won in 3 days then called off the dogs. This is not a cheerleading competition for the side you want to win. This is war. All that matters is getting accurate information of what is happening.

[StateBoiler]

Matt Chance of CNN saying the Su-27 taken down over Kiev was Ukrainian, not Russian.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497051901107466243

[StateBoiler]

Matt Chance of CNN saying the Su-27 taken down over Kiev was Ukrainian, not Russian.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497051901107466243

Damn that sucks.
But the Russians are not in any strong form, inside Kyiv, to have anti-air capability.
Sounds strange.

During the 1st Persian Gulf War, they took an obsolete fighter aircraft, made it into a self-flying drone of sorts and had it fly through the middle of Baghdad figuring the Iraqis would hit it but every anti-aircraft battery in Baghdad would show its location.

There's been questions of "where is the Russian artillery?" It might be they're just allowing Ukrainian equipment to expose itself, then take it out.

[StateBoiler]

Watching CNN live. Matt Chance reporting from Kiev is talking on video, 7:05am in the morning there, and air raid sirens started going off in the background.

Re the UN, if you want to go lawyer mode technicalities, the charters don't mention the Russian Federation, they say the Soviet Union. It's a functional change made to the UN that's never been put in the paperwork because reforming the UN is more impossible than amending the U.S. Constitution.

[StateBoiler]

From politico.eu live blog:

UKRAINE READY TO NEGOTIATE, MUST RECEIVE SECURITY GUARANTEES: ZELENSKIY AIDE

Ukraine is ready to negotiate with Russia on becoming a neutral state, but it must also receive security guarantees, a top adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday.

“Ukraine has always left and leaves room for negotiations. Including now — even after Russia launched a full-scale invasion. This war must be stopped. These hostilities must be stopped,” Mykhaylo Podolyak said in a statement carried on Ukrainian news agency Unian’s Telegram channel.

The offer to negotiate came amid reports of gunfire in the Obolon district of northern Kyiv, on the west bank of the Dnipro River.

Videos posted on Nexta Ukraine’s Telegram channel showed Russian armored cars on the streets of Obolon.

[StateBoiler]

This is why I have always been for the Great Power sphere-of-influences approach for international Great Power competitions.  Here I am 100% aligned with Putin in terms of what the international political model should look like. There should be a concert of Great Powers that make clear to each other what their core interets are and what they are not.  There will still be competition and conflict but the payoff matrix is clear to everyone.

I would phrase it differently from what you have. It's not that it's Great Power spheres of influences talking with one another, it's that states are just not going to accept certain things in their near abroad. The U.S. does this too. The Monroe Doctrine was in one frame of mind the U.S. desiring to keep all European states that could be powerful rivals out of the hemisphere where the U.S. was the strongest state. Canada post-War of 1812 realized they had to make peace with the U.S. because Britain was an ocean away and British military analysis considered Canada indefensible if they ever got in conflict with the U.S. Mexico effectively lost a power competition with the U.S. in the late antebellum period that resulted in the U.S. gaining Texas, the modern-day Southwest, and California. And post-war the U.S. refused to forgive Texan debts to leave them no option but to come into the country as a state instead of going on independent. Cuba, we at one point were going to invade and overthrow Castro as our foreign policy establishment did not want to accept a Soviet ally so close to American soil. We then had the Cuban Missile Crisis where you want to take a technical understanding of international geopolitics - Cuba was a sovereign state and had every right to station Soviet nukes there - but this was rightfully completely unacceptable to the U.S. and they got them removed. The only reason the state of North Korea still exists is China will not accept a U.S. ally (South Korea) on their border.

The only states in the world that have a completely unacceptable status outside their borders but are forced to live with it are the Israels and South Koreas of the world.

[StateBoiler]

Russian defense ministry talking points about ensuring that civilians are not hurt in their attacks reads just like the USA talking points back in 2003 Iraq about the care they are taking to ensure Iraqi civilians are not harmed.  Both are equally farcical.

There has been comment I've read of the Russians are nowhere near using their artillery capabilities, which points to wanting to limit damage, i.e. they plan on owning this place once the conflict is over, shouldn't destroy it then.

[StateBoiler]

IFX reports that Russia is now ready to send a delegation to Minsk for talks with Ukraine.

I guess they figure they have the upper hand and that further gains might get costlier so it makes sense for them to see what they can squeeze out of Ukraine through talks.  And if Ukraine does not show they can tell PRC's Xi that they tried.

I'm sure talks this early weren't part of the original Russian plan, whatever they claim now.

Ukraine is the one that first sued for peace. Macron said yesterday that Zelensky asked him to ask Putin to stop the fighting and Zelensky recorded a public message today saying the same. They will surely give up a lot if this results in an armistice and peace terms. Turns out the "Ukrainians are holding up well" idea was overly optimistic and a mistaken impression given by a few anecdotal Twitter reports.

And after that message from the Kremlin, back to the studio.

CNN posted in their live blog about an hour ago that Zelensky in a televised address speaking in Russian called for direct talks and negotiation.

American military intelligence pre-war said they expected Kiev to fall in 72 hours to a Russian ground assault. We're at about 32 hours and they're on the outskirts of Kiev. Taking Kiev and being outside Kiev are two different things, but that's situation on the ground.

[StateBoiler]

So we know that Russia will seize control of Ukraine and install a puppet regime? What will the US, EU, NATO and other major world powers do?

Will Russia be effectively cut off from the rest of the world? Or will this all just blow-over?

Only one person answered. Knowing all of this, what will happen?

If this conflict ends, I see China now that peace exists being okay with whatever Russia does.

Think the answer to your question depends on whether there is a negotiated settlement that has Zelensky's signature on it or not. If Zelensky agrees to something, the U.S. and EU will abide. If he does not, they won't.

[StateBoiler]

What is with this idealism from everyone here that a military agreement with the Russian Federation not related to nuclear arms control is worth the paper it's signed on? How delusional do you have to be to think they'd honor any sort of ceasefire/treaty?

Then war continues.

Russians are going to go until either Zelensky surrenders or they have removed Zelensky from power forcefully.

[StateBoiler]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1497225270310354949

What is Russia going to say?

"Oh, I accept your term of surrender"

That's how wars have worked since the beginning of time.

[StateBoiler]

A Ukrainian I follow on Twitter is claiming 2,800 Russian casualties. I am extremely skeptical and consider this number to be pulled out of thin air. Impressive PR operation all in all. CNN was mostly uncritically repeating the "800 dead Russians" claim last night.

The retired colonel doing their military analysis did not openly question it but said "that would be great if true".

Aggressors in a neutral conflict typically lose more than defenders. However, if the Russians are losing 5-to-1 in the casualty count, they've really made successful territorial gains while that is still the case. I don't really take that casualty count as kosher, it's not matching what's happening on the ground. There was a Ukrainian report of the Russians had 3000 dead which the Bild journalist saying they reported that was "come on, get serious", and then we hear 800 later.

[StateBoiler]

What is with this idealism from everyone here that a military agreement with the Russian Federation not related to nuclear arms control is worth the paper it's signed on? How delusional do you have to be to think they'd honor any sort of ceasefire/treaty?

Then war continues.

Russians are going to go until either Zelensky surrenders or they have removed Zelensky from power forcefully.

Yeah my point is that'll happen regardless of whatever talks occur. The die's been cast. We're at the point where anything less than capturing the Maidan is a failure for the Kremlin.

The Russians are showing some restraint here. It's been commented on by military types they're not using their artillery much at all when Russian military strategy historically has relied on artillery a good amount, and there's still plenty of soldiers on the borders that have not invaded yet. So they're not trying to kill everyone a la say Grozny, but if told "f#ck you, we're going to die to the last man", the artillery is being held in reserve and could come in. That could be the threat to force Ukraine to the table.

We'll see what happens at Minsk. Russian ground forces are in Kiev and we have a day and a half until the American military intelligence prediction of when it would fall.

[StateBoiler]

It's time to recognize that Putin is a madman - literally mentally ill. He senses his impending mortality and is trying to immortalize himself by recreating an empire. But he will destroy his nation and his people in his attempt.

The question is if anyone inside the Kremlin realize this, and if any of them will have the balls to save the world from nuclear war.

Going on past history, they let Stalin and Brezhnev die of old age. The ones that got overthrown were Khrushchev and Gorbachev (and Yeltsin from a certain viewpoint).

[StateBoiler]

https://twitter.com/Eurovision/status/1497243799889711104

So that’s the Champions League, Formula One and now Eurovision. In addition to the Council of Europe, on the more substantive side of things.

Doubt this will dissuade Putin, but hopefully some Russians will take the intended lesson about their country being pushed into pariah state status.

WE JUST HELD THE OLYMPICS IN A COUNTRY THAT DISAPPEARED A STAR TENNIS PLAYER FOR ALLEGING SHE WAS RAPED AND HAS CONCENTRATION CAMPS FOR MUSLIMS IN ITS FAR WEST PROVINCE, AND EVERYONE WENT.

I can add everything about Saudi Arabia if anyone wishes. War going on in a country, "oh yeah, we're going to ban you from a song contest, take that!", f#ck. I already think very little of Europeans when it comes to foreign policy affairs. The French and Germans - two most powerful states in continental Europe - effectively came out yesterday and admitted their militaries are useless in an intense conflict. Think about what that says about NATO capacity ex-U.S., and people wonder why states are taking advantage of the power vacuum.