Armenia—Azerbaijan Conflict Aftermath: Discord in Armenia

[StateBoiler]

Adam Schiff has called for U.S. recognition of Artsakh. Extremely boneheaded and premature move, I think.

https://twitter.com/RepAdamSchiff/status/1319723293973368832

Armenians over here pour a ton of money into Democratic campaigns. They've gotten some Democrat-majority state legislatures to approve resolutions regarding their Azeri conflict and the Turkish genocide, which I'm not a fan of because all foreign policy stuff should be at a federal level (the resolutions are meaningless, but state legislatures should not even do symbolic foreign policy stuff).


Anyway, what do the new borders look like?

[StateBoiler]

I agree with most of it, but I think you overstate the extent of Russia's role on the Armenia's side. If anything, it has been surprising how unwilling relatively Russia has been to intervene on behalf of Armenia.

It's interesting to compare the statements of Russia and various western Countries during the Crisis:

The situation of losing a significant part of Azerbaijani territory cannot be sustained forever

It is deeply regrettable that the hostilities continue, but they are not taking place on Armenian territory. [Russia's obligations under the CSTO] do not extend to Karabakh.

We’re hopeful that the Armenians will be able to defend against what the Azerbaijanis are doing,

It was determined that the attacks on Sunday came from Azerbaijan, Both sides must comply with the cease-fire. (..) I have noticed the political statements made by Turkey [in favour of Azerbaijan], which I find to be inconsiderate and risky. France is concerned by the warlike messages from Turkey which is in favor of Azerbaijan's reconquering Nagorno-Karabakh. And that we won't accept it, (he added, not mentioning that the region is internationally recognized as belonging to Azerbaijan)

We receive signals from Armenia to be ready for the talks, but not from Azerbaijan. If Baku continues its position to reject the ceasefire, we must ask ourselves to what extent we can remain neutral towards the parties.

They haven't said so officially, but Russia sees their Interests long term served better as part of closer relations with Turkey and the strengthening of the Moscow-Teheran-Ankara Axis, and that is a only logical choice (and you are seeing similar Movement in Iran with many high profile Clerics and other figures (Yadollah Javani, Ali Akbar Velayati, Naser Makarem Shirazi...) siding with "Muslim Azerbaijan". And Pashinyan, in typical populist fashion (Saakashvili, Elchibey..) failed to understand or was ignorant of the changing regional situation and failed to compromise with Azerbaijan. Aliyev, whilst, yes, a dictator of a corrupt petrostate, understands from a personal perspective how geopolitics works, resisted intense internal pressure and bided his time until Azerbaijan was ready to act. And hence all the takes by Western Observers before September about how the Azeri Army was a incompetent, corrupt Organisation with no morale and doomed to fail against the superior Armenian defence fell apart in spectacular fashion.

It infuriates me how many democratically-elected leaders globally completely fail at understanding geopolitics. It's a phase of power where "the strongmen" of the world completely outshine them. The last three U.S. presidents I believe have not really understood geopolitics. Failing at understanding geopolitics is a cardinal sin in my opinion. If you don't understand it, you have no business running your country.

[StateBoiler]

Adam Schiff has called for U.S. recognition of Artsakh. Extremely boneheaded and premature move, I think.

Armenians over here pour a ton of money into Democratic campaigns. They've gotten some Democrat-majority state legislatures to approve resolutions regarding their Azeri conflict and the Turkish genocide, which I'm not a fan of because all foreign policy stuff should be at a federal level (the resolutions are meaningless, but state legislatures should not even do symbolic foreign policy stuff).


Anyway, what do the new borders look like?

Azerbaijan will occupy all the green areas. Yellow will be de facto Artsakh, and Russian peacekeepers will be deployed all around the new de facto border line.

So in effect Artsakh territory has been chopped by more than half and they've lost their land border with Iran.

[StateBoiler]

Susan Collins recognition of Artsakh imminent?

https://twitter.com/Kornelij/status/1331610084615610368

Did Armenian-American groups give her campaign a ton of money?