Minor Party and Independent General Election Discussion

[StateBoiler]

Can we talk a bit about how f**king astonishing it is that in this climate, with these high hurdles to gathering signatures, Jo Jorgensen, who no one has ever heard of, is very likely to achieve 50 state ballot access? It's really a minor miracle and a pretty impressive flex by the Libertarian Party. Respect, you crazy bastards.

Harry Browne's VP nominee in 1996.

Seriously though, the LP is a larger and much more organized political party than it ever has been.

[StateBoiler]

I really wonder if the Libertarians do actually start to make real gains as Gen Z begins voting. They are pretty Libertarian friendly, even if there’s a large segment of them that Lean Democratic.

They'll take a chunk of the Republican-leaning electorate in the age group, which is much smaller than the Democratic electorate. Your typical young libertarian voter (in my personal experience, not saying it's exhaustive) is usually either someone who grew up wealthy/upper middle class and doesn't understand why people worry about paying for healthcare, or, weirdly, a lot of people in the military who also don't have to worry about healthcare or college and thinks cutting government waste won't apply to them. Also your random gems who think abolishing the ATF/child labor laws/minimum wage is a good idea. I see their ceiling as 5-10%. Most young people are either progressive or liberal.  

I dispute that some.

The best Libertarian area in Fort Wayne, Indiana, based on crunching precinct results is the downtown City Council district that's always been held by a white Democrat and skews younger as far as average voter. Their worst area is the heavily black Democratic district south of downtown. This is based on looking for data in big races - president, governor, Senator, Representative. In 2016 when the Democrats nominated a horrible candidate for Congress, the Libertarian candidate got 12.4% of the vote there, which was 5 points higher than her county-wide percentage.

They also perform better in cities than they do non-incorporated areas based on my data.

I think the next big recruiting/voting potential for the Libertarians is rural Democrats, who cannot win an election and the national Democratic Party is going in the direction of telling them to f&ck off. That's a large number of votes and I think rural Democrats are like some city Republicans of they're getting so small they're in danger of losing 2nd party status.

[StateBoiler]

In my experience, younger Millennials and Gen Z’s that vote Libertarian have the following characteristics:
1) White males
2) Reject socialism and many forms of government control
3) Are really concerned about government spending and the debt
4) Think both parties are corrupt & only care about big money
5) Are non-religious and are sick of the GOP’s social/cultural conservatism
6) Don’t like the Democrats plans to spend a bunch on social welfare stuff.
The most important of the 6, though, are #2, 4, and 5.

I think there is a certain generational aspect to some of this.

I'm a mid-Millennial (b. late '80s) and I think for a lot of people my age, libertarianism served the purpose that socialism or tankie LARPing seems to be serving for some disaffected Zoomers. It's an anti-establishment ideology that allows you to criticize the status quo without taking sides in contemporary political conflicts. This was especially true in the Bush years when conservatism was heavily defined by opposition to gay marriage and support for war in Afghanistan, Iraq and possibly Iran.

A lot of the people I knew who identified as libertarians in their late teens/early 20s simply drifted into the mainstreams of one of the major parties as they got older.

One of the most ironic and disturbing phenomena is how many college kids who were into Ron Paul in 2008 are now basically blood-and-soil Trumpists, and I think that says a lot about what libertarianism actually is as an ideology in practice in the United States.

Basically you described a lot of people that I know.

Although I don't think a lot of Ron Paul youth in 2008-2012 became Trumpists.

If you read articles about the Alt-Right types, a lot of them will mention getting into politics because of Ron Paul.

Ron Paul is a right-wing version of Bernie Sanders. The outsider in the contest that points out how screwed up the establishment he's running against are. Trump did the same to be fair. The difference between Paul and Trump is Paul was defined by his principles, while Trump has no principles.

There's a huge social media/internet context to all this that for example drives Jorgensen to have 51-state ballot access. Type "Libertarian podcast" into google and see the huge number of hits you get. There's a lot of people that make their living now just off doing that, so that gives you context of the size of listenership. It's not like they view everything in terms of "I am right, you are wrong". There's one I listen to called "We Are Libertarians" that in 2016 was espousing the virtues of Sanders (in contrast to Clinton who the show hated) as far as the problems in government as they see them, that Sanders was the more likely of the two to reform them.

It also should be stated that their growth is due in large part to the Republicans and Democrats nominating bad candidates. What the Democrats have done this year with kicking the Greens off the ballot using a bunch of tricks, they can't do that to the Libertarians even if they wanted to because it's become a structurally stronger party to overcome the ballot access hurdles the Republicans and Democrats have setup.

[StateBoiler]

All from Ballot Access News:

Alabama

Jo Jorgensen is the only presidential candidate who submitted an Alabama petition this year. The deadline was August 20. The petition, which required 5,000 signatures, has already been verified.

Alabama voters will see three presidential candidates on their ballot, the smallest number in that state since 1964. In 1964, the only choices were Barry Goldwater and unpledged segregationist Alabama Democratic electors.

Tennessee

The Tennessee Secretary of State’s website has this list of presidential candidates who filed petitions. The only qualified parties in Tennessee are the Republican and Democratic Parties, so all others must use the independent presidential procedure, which requires 275 signatures.

Three independent petitions have already been approved: those for the Libertarian, Alliance, and Socialist Workers Party presidential nominees.

Still under review are petitions for the nominees of the Constitution, Green, Prohibition, Socialism & Liberation, and Unity Parties. Also under review are the petitions for three independent candidates: Brock Pierce, Horace Taylor, and Kanye West.

Maine

Only five presidential candidates will be on the November ballot in Maine: the nominees of the Democratic, Republican, Libertarian, Green, and Alliance Parties.

[StateBoiler]

No petitions succeed in Missouri. Only parties on ballot will be R, D, Libertarian, Green, and Constitution.

New York Independence Party nominate Brock Pierce.

Only petition submitted in Wyoming was for Brock Pierce. R, D, Libertarian, and Constitution already on ballot.

[StateBoiler]

It’s odd knowing that Brock Pierce is doing better at getting on the ballot then Kanye West, although I don’t see him doing better in getting more voters then him.

Probably has more money put into it to get him on the ballot. Kanye's operation appears to be more done on the cheap and relying on his celebrity.

[StateBoiler]

It’s odd knowing that Brock Pierce is doing better at getting on the ballot then Kanye West, although I don’t see him doing better in getting more voters then him.

Probably has more money put into it to get him on the ballot. Kanye's operation appears to be more done on the cheap and relying on his celebrity.

I'd disagree with every point here.  Kanye's torched plenty of money trying to get on state ballots that Pierce didn't even attempt.  Since Pierce has actually filed an FEC report we know he's spent over $1 mil.  Also, there have been several affidavits indicating petition gatherers have frequently tried to hide Kanye's name when gathering signatures.  Just because Kanye's efforts have been more incompetent and unethical doesn't mean he's spending less.

So what are the people signing the petition for think they're signing?

You can also torch a lot of money and still be cheap in this context.

BAN again:

Five presidential candidates have had their Minnesota petitions validated by the Secretary of State: the nominees of the Libertarian, Socialist Workers, and Socialism & Liberation Parties; and two independent candidates, Kanye West and Brock Pierce.

In addition, the three qualified parties with presidential nominees are the Democratic-Farmer-Labor, Republican, and Legal Marijuana Parties. The Legal Marijuana Party nominee is Howie Hawkins, who in other states is the Green Party nominee.

Unless there are other outstanding petitions, I guess that means the Minnesota Independence Party did not qualify with Rocky De La Fuente.

The Oregon Progressive Party have nominated Dario Hunter, who lost the Green nomination to Hawkins.

[StateBoiler]

Re Minnesota, Howie Hawkins and the Green, Richard Winger in the comments section says this:

The Green Party did petition for president in Minnesota, but did not submit the petition, because Minnesota doesn’t permit fusion for president. In order to accept the Legal Marijuana Now Party presidential nomination, Hawkins had to withhold the Green petition.

Legal Marijuana Now is a qualified state party in Minnesota, thus no petitioning required.

Jorgensen petition verified in Virginia. Only other petition is Kanye West which is being checked for accuracy.

Idaho: 3 petitions submitted for Rocky De La Fuente, Kanye West, and Brock Pierce. R, D, Libertarian, and Constitution already on ballot.

Supreme Court Justice Kagan denied relief to the Montana Secretary of State's request to reinstate the Green Party to the ballot. She did not refer to any other Justice and did not ask for a response from the other side. There's a 2nd case in the Ninth Circuit, not filed by the Montana Secretary of State but by some Green Party nominees there.

[StateBoiler]

You'll have to Wade thru the Kanye thread if you wish to read the stories as I'm not relinking him here.  The people Kanye have hired to gather signatures have generated a fair amount of negative press for their various actions, probably making it modestly harder for other signature gatherers.


And while it's not the greatest source, or maybe for Kanye it is, TMZ is saying Kanye is spending up to 500,000 to try to get on AZ ballot.

https://amp.tmz.com/2020/08/26/kanye-west-presidential-campaign-arizona-ballot-blitz/

It's documented the Libertarians spent more than $100k to get on the Oklahoma ballot in 2016. ($30k of that was a grant from Richard Winger for the sole purpose of Oklahoma ballot access).

Again, it's a lot of money but $50k in this business is not much. How much money you think Rocky De La Fuente has spent on his two presidential campaigns counting all his bsllot access lawsuits he fought?

[StateBoiler]

Do Libertarians and Greens not feel like the gamesmanship by the major parties regarding letting them on the ballot is proof that they do nothing but serve as spoilers?

What is the Green Party explanation for why Republicans so badly want them on the ballot?

To use a Lenin quote: "the capitalists will sell us the rope we will use to hang them with".

[StateBoiler]

Winger at BAN says no statewide petition requirement, presidential or other office, has succeeded since Covid crisis began if it required  5000 signatures.

Kansas: no petition succeeded, only attempt was Hawkins who did not have enough signatures. Only people on balllot are R, D, Libertarian.

Ditto Nebraska.

Ditto Massachusetts for president or Senator. No one even tried (10k signatures). Parties on ballot are R, D, Libertarian, Green.

West Virginia: no petition succeeded, Kanye West had a petition but only had sbout half the 15k requirement. Parties on ballot are R, D, Libertarian, and Mountain (Green Party state affiliate).

The South Carolina Constitution Party informed the Secretary of State they were not fielding a presidential candidate this year. They have til Labor Day to change their mind.

Utah: 4 petitions met the 1000 signatures requirement. Gloria La Riva, Brock Pierce, Kanye West, and Joe McHugh.

Washington state ballot access:

The Washington Secretary of State has been validating presidential petitions, which require 1,000 signatures. Whether the Constitution Party, the Alliance Party, and the American Solidarity Party have enough valid signatures depends on whether voters may sign for more than one presidential candidate. The three groups have enough valid signatures if it is legal for voters to sign more than one such petition.

[StateBoiler]

Do Libertarians and Greens not feel like the gamesmanship by the major parties regarding letting them on the ballot is proof that they do nothing but serve as spoilers?

What is the Green Party explanation for why Republicans so badly want them on the ballot?

They don't mind serving as spoilers

Democrats spoiled themselves by running candidates to the right of Eisenhower.

I roll my eyes at Democrats that don't get the Nader 2000 run. It was a left-wing reaction at being pissed off with the DLC/Clinton/Gore wing of the party, which is in vogue at the moment in the Democratic Party. It didn't coalesce inside the Democratic Party until Howard Dean's presidential campaign in 2004 pushed the whole party left.

In 2004 when I was in college, Nader came to talk. Nader's not my cup of tea and I never voted for him, but I went and listened to him talk because how often do you get to see a presidential candidate. The whole time Nader talked there was this guy in the back, I can still see him. About 50 years old, white, had a gray mustache, never blinked, just scowled at Nader the whole time holding up a sign above his head saying "Re-elect Bush. Vote for Nader." The first audience question Nader took which was probably a plant was "what do you say to people that say voting for you hurts Kerry and helps Bush win?" Nader responded, "Vote for Kerry".

For 2016, well, you should've nominated a better candidate than Hillary Clinton. If Clinton had won and Trump lost, Republicans the last 4 years would've been having this same argument about Gary Johnson and Evan McMullin.

I just realized I could take the original question and flip it into just as valid a point:

What is the Bernie Sanders campaign explanation for why Republicans so badly want him on the ballot?

[StateBoiler]

BAN:

This year, independent presidential candidates in Hawaii need 4,347 signatures. The petition was due August 5. No one submitted such a petition.

The qualified parties in Hawaii are Democratic, Republican, Libertarian, Green, Constitution, Aloha Aina, and American Shopping. Parties have until September 4 to certify a presidential nominee.

[StateBoiler]

On August 25, the Washington Secretary of State issued a press release, saying that four petitions for presidential ballot status are valid: those of the Libertarian, Green, Socialism & Liberation, and Socialist Workers Party.

The Alliance, American Solidarity, and Constitution Party petitions were all rejected as a state court ruled if a person signs multiple petitions, all his or her signatures become invalid.

[StateBoiler]

Any word on the Green Party lawsuit in Wisconsin? Last I heard, the commission deadlocked, along party lines (3 GOP in favour, 3 Dems in opposition to including Hawkins on the ballot).

Is this expected to go anywhere - is Hawkins likely/unlikely to get onto the ballot?

This is from the text of a comment at Independent Politcal Report. The Democratic representative on the election board wants to disqualify about half the signatures of the Green Party petition because the VP candidate Angela Walker changed address during the petition process.

Meeting of the Wisconsin Elections Commission started at 3 P.M. CDT Thursday.

Kanye West off the ballot in Wisconsin. Reasoning: failure to file in a timely manner. Could be wrong, but I believe it was a 5-1 vote.

Argument regarding trying to kick off the Green Party ticket has been going on for 2 1/2+ hours. Democratic commission chair Ann Jacobs has been hostile during the entire hearing toward campaign manager Andrea Mérida Cuéllar and Republican commissioner Robert Spindell.

Objections are regarding address of the VP nominee. Started the drive at one address and moved to another during the drive.

Spindell made some passionate remarks stating that tossing the Green Party ticket of Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker off the ballot over the address issues could make the Commission appear racist, as the VP nominee is black.

They’re splitting the motion.

Objection motions 2 & 3 passed 6-0.
 Objection motion 1 to kick the Green Party off the ballot fails 3-3, right along party lines.
 Spindell motions to place Green Party on the ballot. Commissioner Dean Knudson seconds.
 3,680 valid signatures reported.
 Motion fails 3-3, right along party lines.

Motion by Knudson to introduce testimony regarding when the VP nominee moved. Seconded by Spindell. Jacobs argues objectors would not be able to represents and that Merida cannot testify on behalf of the VP nominee. Claims objector sandbagging. Motion fails 3-3.

Knudson make a two-part motion:
 1) To certify 1,789 signatures for the Green Party ticket of Hawkins/Walker (with Walker’s Royal Street address); and
 2) Enter into the record that the Commission’s 3-3 deadlock on removal AND placement has no finding against the remaining 1,834 under objection (with Walker’s Tee Vee Road address) due to lack of sufficient evidence against them regarding when Walker moved.

Uncertain if that meant placed on the ballot with over 3,600 signatures until proven otherwise. Motion carries 6-0.

Candidates without objections to be approved to be placed on the ballot – Libertarian Party and American Solidarity Party, made by Knudson on both motion. Motion carries 6-0 on both and both party tickets will be on the ballot.

Motion to not certify Kyle Kopitke for ballot placement by Knudson. Motion carries 6-0.

Jacobs motions for the Green Party ticket to not be placed on the ballot. Uses previous 6-0 decision as part of argument to not place them on the ballot. Motion fails 3-3.

Knudson motions for the Green Party ticket to be certified on the ballot. Uses previous 6-0 decision as part of argument to place them on the ballot. Motion fails 3-3.

Issue regarding Hawkins/Walker objections may or may not end up in court due to the Commission’s lack of action.

Other business started at 8:36 PM CDT.

Can supply recorded audio per request. (Note of warning – is 5 hours, 34 minutes long.)

[StateBoiler]

Nevada:

Nevada requires 9,608 signatures for a new party, or an independent presidential candidate. No candidate or group submitted a petition in Nevada that would have added a presidential candidate to the ballot.

The qualified parties in Nevada are Democratic, Republican, Libertarian, and Constitution. The Green Party had been planning to sue, because Nevada only requires 250 signatures for a statewide independent candidate for office other than president. The U.S. Supreme Court decision Anderson v Celebrezze says states should be more lenient for president than for other office. The proposed Nevada lawsuit would have been similar to the winning 2020 lawsuit against the District of Columbia ballot access law, which had a similar flaw (D.C.. required 250 signatures for all districtwide partisan office except president, but approximately 5,000 for president). But the Green Party was never able to find an in-state attorney in Nevada. It is possible the case will still be filed, for declaratory judgment, but it is too late to expect any court to grant injunctive relief.

Delaware:

The Delaware Election Commission has posted a candidate list, although it does not include Democrats or Republicans for office other than president, because their primaries haven’t been held yet. For president, only the nominees of the Democratic, Republican, Libertarian and Green Parties will be on the ballot, unless the nominee of the American Delta Party is able to prevail. The Independent Party is also ballot-qualified but it chose not to run anyone for president, although it is active this year and has nominees for many other offices.

No statewide independent petition has succeeded in Delaware since 1992, when Ross Perot qualified. The law requires 7,118 signatures, due July 15.

No new parties qualified in Delaware this year.

The American Delta Party is ballot-qualified and wants to run Rocky De La Fuente for president, but the party was late with some of its presidential elector paperwork. The Delaware law is discriminatory and requires qualified minor parties (which nominate by convention) to certify their nominees before the Democratic and Republican Parties are required to do so. The Delaware Elections Commission is considering whether to rule that the American Delta Party should be allowed to put its nominee on the ballot.

[StateBoiler]

Kanye West's petition certified in Virginia.

[StateBoiler]

Brock Pierce on the ballot in Wyoming. He joins R, D, Libertarian, and Constitution.

Richard Winger says Mr. Pierce is the first person ever residing in a territory to run for President. Pierce is a resident of Puerto Rico.

[StateBoiler]

Brock Pierce on the ballot in Wyoming. He joins R, D, Libertarian, and Constitution.

Richard Winger says Mr. Pierce is the first person ever residing in a territory to run for President. Pierce is a resident of Puerto Rico.

Can't wait to see how many people claim he's a foreigner running in our elections because they don't understand what Puerto Rico is.

Call me crazy, but I doubt he'll receive much in the way of attention from the press.

[StateBoiler]

Tennessee:

The Tennessee Secretary of State finished validating independent presidential petitions on August 31. Six were valid: Rocky De La Fuente, Howie Hawkins, Jo Jorgensen, Alyson Kennedy, Gloria La Riva, and Kanye West.

On August 31 two petitions that had been under review were rejected: those of Don Blankenship and Brock Pierce.

[StateBoiler]

Alliance Party September Newsletter on their ballot access:

Below is a map that demonstrates what can be expected in each state. The darker blue denotes where voters will see our Presidential ticket listed on the ballot, most under the name Alliance Party. Three of these are accomplished via an unofficial alliance with the Reform Party of Florida, the Natural Law Party of Michigan, and the American Independent Party of California

The lighter blue denotes states where we will not be listed on the ballot itself, but will be designated as a legitimate write-in choice. This designation allows for our votes to actually be tallied and counted.

[StateBoiler]

Hawkins off the ballot in RI:

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1305891990219837440

Didn't the Rhode Island Green Party refuse to nominate anyone?

Socratic Gadfly asked at his blog why the national Green Party didn't disaffiliate them at the National Convention in turn.

[StateBoiler]

In PA there is the write in option so keeping parties off the ballot is a waste of time.

Write-in doesn't result in the same number of votes as would be the case with them on the ballot though ...

Probably true since the number of votes for Stein was 1,457,226.
The number of write ins was 1,154,084, which is still pretty many, but less than what Stein got.
Not all states allow write ins.

edit: If Democrats want more votes they should end FPTP.

How are you ending FPTP for a singular office like President?

[StateBoiler]

In PA there is the write in option so keeping parties off the ballot is a waste of time.

Write-in doesn't result in the same number of votes as would be the case with them on the ballot though ...

Probably true since the number of votes for Stein was 1,457,226.
The number of write ins was 1,154,084, which is still pretty many, but less than what Stein got.
Not all states allow write ins.

edit: If Democrats want more votes they should end FPTP.

How are you ending FPTP for a singular office like President?

You could either do a two round top two runoff or IRV, neither of which are FPTP.

Still first past the post, you've just made the post 50% plus one.

[StateBoiler]

In PA there is the write in option so keeping parties off the ballot is a waste of time.

Write-in doesn't result in the same number of votes as would be the case with them on the ballot though ...

Probably true since the number of votes for Stein was 1,457,226.
The number of write ins was 1,154,084, which is still pretty many, but less than what Stein got.
Not all states allow write ins.

edit: If Democrats want more votes they should end FPTP.

How are you ending FPTP for a singular office like President?

You could either do a two round top two runoff or IRV, neither of which are FPTP.

Still first past the post, you've just made the post 50% plus one.

That's...not first past the post.

Semantics.

You're never getting IRV nationally. Republicans aren't in favor and Democrats won't be either as long as blacks get up and say it's racist. African-Americans in the South have a longstanding position of all runoffs are racist because it allows the white voters to consolidate against the black candidate. They just came out against top-two in Florida.

The game is rigged and the big parties are never going to help out the small parties. It's not a matter of idealism, if you think that you've already lost. it's a matter of raw power. Democrats are viewing every single decision they make through electing Biden and as part of that goal have continued their longstanding practice of systematically for years working to screw over the Greens. Covid-19 this year has aided them by almost every state government denying all petitioning relief up and down ballot, and being backed up on that by state and federal judges. If Covid-19 occurred during the petitioning period to get on primary ballots for both parties, of course the judges would've agreed to relief. Why do they do this? Because it threatens their hold on power and their lives are much easier only having to run against one candidate they can easily pigeonhole. Same is true for the other side. It has nothing to deal with issues.

If you're in favor of more choices than 2, it's best to just acknowledge that and then if you're still in favor of more choices than 2, take action against all the individuals that further foment that system. It's usually state legislators, Secretaries of State, and judges. Seek to get them replaced. Find dirt on them that deprives them of their electability.