I've been sounding the alarm on peeps being too bullish on AZ, it's polarized and Sinema's performance was not as impressive as some make it out to be. Nevertheless, I still expect it to go to Biden by around the same margin as Sinema won and there's no way Biden is only doing 1 point better in AZ than in TX.
> Sinema turns seat blue for first time in decades
> Sinema performance "not as impressive as some make it out to be"
This is literally one poll that has a bit of a flawed composite, so I wouldn't just take it at face value when we've had more polls than not showing Biden with a considerably higher lead in AZ than this.
I suppose I should have added "imo". I personally was not as impressed by it as others. Considering the trends in suburbs, college educated whites and the sunbelt in general, along with the 2018 environment, I would have expected a candidate tailor-made to said demographics like Sinema to defeat a poor candidate like McSally by more than 2 points and be able to capture a majority of the vote. I never meant to say that a Dem flipping an AZ seat wasn't impressive or a hopeful sign for 2020, only that I don't think the margin was impressive enough to assume the race leans to Biden.
