CBS/YouGov 50 state model megathread

[LimoLiberal]

https://www.cbsnews.com/2020-us-election-battleground-tracker/?ftag=CNM-00-10abc1f


https://twitter.com/BoKnowsNews/status/1282321545306701826

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It’s a bit surprising how resistant Arizona has been to the Biden surge.  A lot of people expected AZ to vote to the left of WI this year, but the 538 average has Biden winning WI by almost 6 points more than AZ (+8.1 vs. +2.4).

It doesn’t matter much as long as Biden is clearly winning WI, PA, and FL.  But it feel like people overrated the 2016 results as though they were all clear signs of a long-term trend that would just become larger in 2020.

[pppolitics]

So AZ is 6 points to the right of FL and only 1 point to the left of TX?

I have my doubts

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Texas is a tossup.

[pppolitics]

It’s a bit surprising how resistant Arizona has been to the Biden surge.  A lot of people expected AZ to vote to the left of WI this year, but the 538 average has Biden winning WI by almost 6 points more than AZ (+8.1 vs. +2.4).

The hispanic votes are hard to capture.

You see them same thing happens in NV.

[Devils30]

It’s a bit surprising how resistant Arizona has been to the Biden surge.  A lot of people expected AZ to vote to the left of WI this year, but the 538 average has Biden winning WI by almost 6 points more than AZ (+8.1 vs. +2.4).

It doesn’t matter much as long as Biden is clearly winning WI, PA, and FL.  But it feel like people overrated the 2016 results as though they were all clear signs of a long-term trend that would just become larger in 2020.

I think AZ is beginning to have some of the same polling issues Nevada has had for a decade.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

This is best polling Trump has had in AZ for a long time.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is best polling Trump has had in AZ for a long time.

It also shows McSally down by only 4, which is significantly less than most other polls.  Unless we start seeing similar results in other polls, I'm going to assume that this one is a bit of an outlier.

[LimoLiberal]

The strange thing is the political environment for Republicans in Arizona should be awful given this number.

https://twitter.com/Aseemru/status/1282324188259221504

[hurricanehink]

The big question is how will the 12% undecided or other party candidates will vote.  That group swung toward Trump in 2016, deciding late.  I believe there were also polls in July 2016 showing Hillary up or tied in Texas and Arizona. That 42% Trump support is his base in Florida, but I worry a Shy-Trump effect could be going on.

[BudgieForce]

We need more state polling.

[redjohn]

Florida will more likely than not go for Biden, Arizona will more likely than not go for Biden, and Texas is obviously a battleground state. Democrats there are VERY energized. Texas will clearly trend & swing left this year, potentially by a large margin. I think Biden could win TX while winning the popular vote by 6 points.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

July 7-10, 2020

ARIZONA
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NdvAi60uPh_3x7OMA1S_ZtFCMBB7y8X_/view
1087 likely voters
MoE among likely voters: 3.8%

Biden 46%
Trump 46%
Someone else/third party 4%
Would not vote 0%
Undecided 4%

FLORIDA
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-C5RyFI1LE1weFlOqBTBW9IM-7poynst/view
1206 likely voters
MoE among likely voters: 3.6%
Biden 48%
Trump 42%
Someone else/third party 2%
Would not vote 0%
Undecided 8%

TEXAS
https://drive.google.com/file/d/18HFC79lmRr1KVcbrUysfJd6XpLZxZxaP/view
1185 likely voters
MoE among likely voters: 3.4%

Trump 46%
Biden 45%
Someone else/third party 4%
Would not vote 0%
Undecided 6%

[Torrain]

This feels a little uneven.

Does anyone know whether CBS/YouGov have polled those states recently?

Are these numbers in line with previous findings, or does this seem to be a batch of outliers?

(While Arizona could vote to the right of Florida, six points feels like a bit of a stretch, given the numbers in recent years)

[n1240]

It’s a bit surprising how resistant Arizona has been to the Biden surge.  A lot of people expected AZ to vote to the left of WI this year, but the 538 average has Biden winning WI by almost 6 points more than AZ (+8.1 vs. +2.4).

The hispanic votes are hard to capture.

You see them same thing happens in NV.

Generally I think this is true for YouGov polls but they have Biden+48 among Hispanic voters in their Arizona poll, which is a better performance among Hispanic voters than what he gets in their Texas and Florida polls.

[wbrocks67]

Florida lines up with everything that we've been seeing lately, which is a surprising >5 lead for Biden among numerous polls now.

Texas also lines up with numerous polls and the average being about dead even.

Arizona, however, seems skewed to the right. And as I've said before, YouGov is really bad at capturing Independent samples. They almost always skew right, not sure why. Even in their national polls, they barely have Biden leading, if ever.

In their Arizona poll, Trump is leading by *9* points among Independents, which is likely making this rosier for him. Sinema won indies by 3% in 2018, and Trump only won by 3 in 2016.

So given that Trump is only *tied* when Indies in this poll are really good for him means this poll is actually pretty rough for him, and if say, Trump was only up by 3, or Biden was leading by 3 like Sinema, we'd likely see a result closer to the other AZ polls we've seen (+3-5)

[wbrocks67]

This feels a little uneven.

Does anyone know whether CBS/YouGov have polled those states recently?

Are these numbers in line with previous findings, or does this seem to be a batch of outliers?

(While Arizona could vote to the right of Florida, six points feels like a bit of a stretch, given the numbers in recent years)

I believe YouGov had Texas at Trump +4 recently, so this would be a shift towards Biden. I don't think they've polled AZ or FL recently

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ split its votes in 2018 between Gov and Senator, ot may do so again, the slippage of polls isnt surprising since we are likely to go into a LV screen after Labor day, even FL isnt 6 pts for Biden, its gonna come down to WI

[Gass3268]

We are still about two months out from a LV screen being useful.

[Bidenworth2020]

Have LV screens been modified to account for an increase of mail in ballots?

[ProudModerate2]

This feels a little uneven.

Does anyone know whether CBS/YouGov have polled those states recently?

Are these numbers in line with previous findings, or does this seem to be a batch of outliers?

(While Arizona could vote to the right of Florida, six points feels like a bit of a stretch, given the numbers in recent years)

Here is Arizona. Just change the state you want to view, in the appropriate option field near the top.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/arizona/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Have LV screens been modified to account for an increase of mail in ballots?

The flaw of the 2016 polls were that they didnt account for 3rd party participation.  I think the same thing is happening with the 2020, 3rd parties hurt Ds more than Rs and FL is known to have a high percentage of third party ballots and WI and PA since those were the closest states in 2016.

Kayne isnt running but other third party candidates are and the Bernie crowd can vote for Grren

[wbrocks67]

We are still about two months out from a LV screen being useful.

Yeah, not sure why they didn't release RV as well.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

As of right now, Florida looks like it's Lean Biden. Trump hasn't led in a single non-manipulated poll there since March.

[DaleCooper]

I was skeptical for months, but it's clear to me now that any advantage Trump had in Florida has completely and utterly collapsed. It's a lean Biden state as of now.