I’ve had has this on my mind for a while- but I have a nagging feeling that McSally is going to win.
I was always surprised to see this race rated as at worst a toss up, or a relatively straight forward pickup. It seems strange for three reasons.
1.) Sinema has no strengths as a candiate- like she doesn’t have one quality/attribute that other canidiates have. She just seems like a standard Congresswoman wanting promotion.
2.) McSally is a relatively good candiate- military experience, seasoned campaigner, not a gaffe prone wreck or ridiculously unlikeable (see Ted Cruz or Marsha Blackburn)
3.) Arizona is yet to have its breakthrough- I don’t see what’s dramatically changed since 2016 to make it any anything other than close.
Would appreciate some hopefully data feedback as I know little about AZ in terms of voting behaviour/demographics
I feel this way about GA-GOV, where I don't see what's changed to make it anything other than Lean R.