AZ-Gravis-McSally+1

[GeorgiaModerate]

http://orlando-politics.com/2018/09/09/gravis-marketing-2018-battleground-poll-arizona/

McSally 49
Sinema 48

Sep. 5-7, 882 likely voters

[Yellowhammer]

I always expected this race to tighten up some after the primary. Granted, this is a Gravis poll, so I won’t put too much stock into it.
Sinema is favored, but only slightly. Tilt D.

[ON Progressive]

That's a suspiciously low amount of undecideds, but this is Gravis so what do I expect?

[Zaybay]

>Gravis

[Politician]

G R A V I S

Also, inb4 Atlas declares Sinema is DOA.

[Person Man]

What was their last poll?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Statistical dead heat

[GeorgiaModerate]

What was their last poll?

In July, they had Sinema leading McSally 43-39, Ward 46-37, and Arpaio 42-33.  They had the primary at McSally 36, Ward 27, Arpaio 24.  http://orlando-politics.com/2018/07/09/gravis-marketing-battleground-poll-arizona-survey-results/

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I always expected this race to tighten up some after the primary. Granted, this is a Gravis poll, so I won’t put too much stock into it.
Sinema is favored, but only slightly. Tilt D.

This.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

G R A V I S

Also, inb4 Atlas declares Sinema is DOA.

[UncleSam]

Yawn. McSally is going to win and it should've been predictable all along honestly. Sinema is too moderate to pump up the liberal base and there's just no way that 'moderate' suburbanite Republicans are going to vote for a pho-Republican instead of the real deal.

McSally 52-47 in the end. You heard it here first.

[jamestroll]

oh no!!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yawn. McSally is going to win and it should've been predictable all along honestly. Sinema is too moderate to pump up the liberal base and there's just no way that 'moderate' suburbanite Republicans are going to vote for a pho-Republican instead of the real deal.

McSally 52-47 in the end. You heard it here first.

McCain's funeral had a net positive effect on the GOP, just like the Reagan funeral did, but I don't think things are this simple for the GOP, there are huge deficits as far as the eye can see and entitlement reform should of been dealt with by Trump in addition to tax reform, and just like in 2006 and 2012, wave years for Dems, out of control spending, is trouble for the conservative movement.

[UncleSam]

Yawn. McSally is going to win and it should've been predictable all along honestly. Sinema is too moderate to pump up the liberal base and there's just no way that 'moderate' suburbanite Republicans are going to vote for a pho-Republican instead of the real deal.

McSally 52-47 in the end. You heard it here first.

McCain's funeral had a net positive effect on the GOP, just like the Reagan funeral did, but I don't think things are this simple for the GOP, there are huge deficits as far as the eye can see and entitlement reform should of been dealt with by Trump in addition to tax reform, and just like in 2006 and 2012, wave years for Dems, out of control spending, is trouble for the conservative movement.

Oh Dems will do very will in November. They're prohibitive favorites in the house and will limit their senate losses way below what they 'should' be based on PVI etc. But the notion that Arizona is a true purple state because Hillary overperformed there massively by winning over suburbanite R moderates is silly. Arizona remains a red state (though probably only for another ten years or so) and McSally just isn't the type of GOP nominee to drive away the 'moderate' R vote.

This race has GA-6 written all over it, and I guarantee you Sinema knows it - why do you think she is running to the right as fast as she can? Democrats have been talking up their chances in Arizona ever since 2016 so much that some of them started to actually believe it.

At least in Tennessee some Rs will actually vote for Bredesen, and in Texas Beto will gin up base turnout. Both of them will have more appeal to the voters they need to win than Sinema will to moderate Rs in the Phoenix suburbs - why would they vote for a pho-Republican when they can vote for a 'respectable' version of the real deal?

And no, this isn't some doom or gloom post for the Dems. Again, Dems will do very well overall in November. Just not in Arizona.

[TheSaint250]

>Gravis

[BudgieForce]

Gravis must be cheap because people keep hiring them.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Also, inb4 Atlas declares Sinema is DOA.

Yawn. McSally is going to win and it should've been predictable all along honestly. Sinema is too moderate to pump up the liberal base and there's just no way that 'moderate' suburbanite Republicans are going to vote for a pho-Republican instead of the real deal.

McSally 52-47 in the end. You heard it here first.

Right on cue!

Extra points for being of the "Sinema is horrendous, she'll lose by ~5%" variety

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gravis must be cheap because people keep hiring them.

This was one of their own:

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[😥]

>Gravis

[DrScholl]

Yawn. McSally is going to win and it should've been predictable all along honestly. Sinema is too moderate to pump up the liberal base and there's just no way that 'moderate' suburbanite Republicans are going to vote for a pho-Republican instead of the real deal.

McSally 52-47 in the end. You heard it here first.

This sounds more like what you want to happen than an actual prediction. Sinema is from most populated part of the state and McSally is not. Almost every statewide official for the last few cycles has been from Maricopa County which means that Sinema is well positioned. Besides, +1 for a Republican in Arizona is quite shaky and will likely not hold up in come November, let alone expand into a 5% margin. This race probably will be decided by a plurality.

[KingSweden]

The Gravis gives, and the Gravis takes

[mds32]

http://orlando-politics.com/2018/09/09/gravis-marketing-2018-battleground-poll-arizona/

McSally 49
Sinema 48

Sep. 5-7, 882 likely voters

Toss-up as expected.

[Xing]

Gravis is garbage... Unless I like the results, in which case it's proof that I was right all along.

Anyway, expect to see closer results in the polls. I never bought the idea of Arizona being "Likely D" or more likely to flip than Nevada. I still think Sinema is favored, but she doesn't have it in the bag. And no, this poll doesn't prove that she's DOA or about to get Kirkpatrick'd.

[Roblox]

>Gravis

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Disappointing numbers, but it wouldn't be too surprising if they were accurate. AZ is the FL of the west. It's boomerville.