I think the Black vote could be key. Trump will be able to get a lot of blue collar whites out to vote for him who usually don't vote and a lot of well off, college educated/cosmopolitan whites will end up holding their nose and voting for him (but certainly not at levels above Romney). On the flip side, there will be some consolidation against him among Hispanics and Asians, with turnout being the wild card.
The Democrats will likely hold the western swing states like Colorado and Nevada. The midwest and VA/FL will be key and the black vote will really matter. It will really matter in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (though Trump may not do so well in the upper midwest). Trump will have to tamp down on the demagoguery though if he wants to do better with the Black vote, but he does have a chance....
I think Trump has a much better chance at CO & NV than VA.
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