Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Anecdotal turnout observations: it's a beautiful and amazingly warm (76F) day here in Forsyth County.  I was out with my wife for a while and happened to drive past three local precincts.  Two had half-full parking lots, while the other was nearly empty.  None had visible lines outside their buildings.  My kid in Athens also texted that he and his girlfriend voted this morning and there was no wait.

Aw, GeorgiaModerate Jr.!

But yeah, don't stress yourselves out (or celebrate) prematurely.  Anecdotal reports -- whether from Twitter randoms or established pros -- are just that.  

HST, definitely seems like a mixed bag though today thus far!

GeorgiaMinor

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Lots of mockery of the idea you can extrapolate results from an isolated island territory but I'm with the people of Guam right now and I'm hearing a lot of anger about the "woke agenda" and "Brandonflation"... take that how you will...

[jacob wohl voice] "i just left a hipster coffee shop in deep blue Dededo..."

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

WOW!

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1590122298191024128?s=46&t=zDoxjo...

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1590122155580456961?s=46&t=zDoxjo...

If there was one thing predictable about this election, it was that it would come down to inflation vs. abortion. Which issue drives out voters more? That's the ballgame.

Early-2010s DeviantArt would have you believe that these are not separate issues at all.

just snorted my tea out of my nose, thanks for that

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

95% reporting in KS-03 and the NYT was dead on. D+12.

reminder that the ks gop dragged a member out of hospital on a respirator to vote for a map that gerrymandered Davids out, only for her to win anyway

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

JHK has the Democrats as favored in all 6 of the uncalled NY races, and most of the uncalled CA races.

What is JHK

https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/2022-midterms/live-forecast

Another one of the data sites, but was a little bit better than the rest in 2020. Also run by a Republican for what that's worth.

He has "called" WI for Johnson, so it's definitely not a D hack site.

I wonder if this is based on any remaining vote data or if this is just a quirk of their model. Has the owner of the site mentioned what's going on at all?

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Could you imagine that, if the Republicans have a very narrow majority in the House, a few Republicans could defect and caucus with the Democrats for leadership positions?

...then there would be a Democratic House run by a Republican speaker, a Republican majority leader, and a Republican majority whip

If R's crossed over, wouldn't the ML and the whip be Democrats?

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Is there a way to send a text message to every person who donated to Marcus Flowers to call them idiots.

I was fantasizing yesterday about running a flashy campaign against a controversial but safe Republican somewhere and getting a ton of rubes to send me money and then embezzling a lil.

You're allowed to pay yourself a salary from your campaign! it wouldn't even be embezzling.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

CA got almost monotonically more R with each post E-Day update in 2020.  Biden went from about 67% in the election night results to about 63% in the final count.  I know the counting procedure changed between 2018 (when it got monotonically more D).  If this pattern repeats, CA would be a lesser version of NY with Newsom only winning by 12 or so.  I would not get excited about close Dem leads in any of the CA House seats until this is sorted out.

2020 =/= 2022. This year has seen a lot of evidence of voters going back to their 2018-style habits.

How does it feel to possibly be the single most vindicated Democratic hack on Atlas?

Ha, I don't want to gloat or make anyone feel like crap, b/c I certainly would feel awful if I was wrong and it was a bad night for Dems. But I would say that some people on this forum need to take a look at how they treat other people. Some people here were so obsessed with how I thought things weren't gonna be as bad and I got mocked pretty badly. Some self-reflection would be nice.

I've noticed a certain green colorado avatar has been suspiciously quiet since results started dropping

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Anyone want to share an opinion on NH's political alignment?

It kind of seems like it has a stubborn Democratic preference at the federal level, but like it is a free for all for state level elections.

People in NH are terrified of being taxed like in Massachusetts, and think NH Dems would start a income/sales tax or something along those lines if they get full power at the state level.   That's really about it.

Very true and I mostly don't disagree, but the worry about Trump's pending run is much louder today (for obvious reasons) than it was on this day in 2018. Particularly the possibility of the January 6th committee continuing its work if Democrats manage to scrape together a majority is a major point of concern I'm hearing.

Probably not the place to put this, but if R's take the house, do they have to put disbanding the Jan. 6 committee to a vote? Twenty R's abstained when it was formed, but the GOP would need pretty much all of those swingy R's to vote to disband. Or does it just automatically die with the new Congress.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Lauren Boebert is now ahead by 386 Votes in CO-3.

How do you feel about that?

Good, I like her! Reason: She is a Christian!

median voter moment

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Looking at what's left in their districts, Hodge and Engel seem to have pretty good forward trajectories, so long as the remaining vote in Maricopa and Pima respectively go well for them.

Hasn’t AZ-06 been called already by some outlets?

That would be very silly if so, considering 37% of the Pima portion of that district is still outstanding. But we've seen some extremely premature calls so far, so that doesn't surprise me terribly.

I trust DDHQ, if they are calling it they probably know something we don't.

Actually, they were one of those that f'ed up CA-21 a few years back. Chances are they just expect 2020 ballot trend repeat, so if it goes different things go wrong. Being the fastest outlet means you make errors sometimes compared to the established  ones.

i thought I remembered them messing up somewhere, but i couldn't dig it up.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/KyleClark/status/1590771397810610177

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Robert Cahaly has not tweeted since Tuesday.

Weirdly Trafalgar just released a new poll

Q: Why hasn't Cahaly said anything since the election?

44 It has nothing to do with the midterms
31 Gerald Malloy
15 Go away
7 These aren't tears I have allergies
3 Undecided

Needs more decimals

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Any "scheduled" drops coming today? I don't want to be constantly refreshing and am wondering if there is any time updates are expected.

There will be drops in California throughout the day, mostly in the late afternoon/early evening. Same for Washington and Oregon. Nevada and Arizona will also have drops in the evening, just like the last couple of days. Dunno about other states.

MSNBC said there would be a NV drop at 9am local time, a change from the evening-only drops.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

(I'll also give my Gay Opinion that men look, like, thrice better with shorts on average)

I always wear shorts (outside of winter), but I still look like sh*t. I have to say that I generally disagree with this opinion. Most men look pretty good in jeans, IMO.

Totally off-topic, but a nice butt in jeans is one of my weaknesses (along with a good sense of humor, nice smile, and/or having hobbies).  

ideally attached to legs and a torso, I hope

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

(I'll also give my Gay Opinion that men look, like, thrice better with shorts on average)

I always wear shorts (outside of winter), but I still look like sh*t. I have to say that I generally disagree with this opinion. Most men look pretty good in jeans, IMO.

Totally off-topic, but a nice butt in jeans is one of my weaknesses (along with a good sense of humor, nice smile, and/or having hobbies).  

  Bonkposting in the middle of the Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread. We haven't seen this since there was talk about a Michigan MILF contingent a few pages back, never change Atlas, never change.

Tbh this is probably some of the tamest bonkposting I've seen out of Atlas.

it hasn't been the same since Joe Cunningham was voted out

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Wasn’t there supposed to be a Nevada vote dump around now?

Wasn't this it? Or are you talking about something else?

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1591051355354845185?s=20&t=uBPLQV6...

That was Samuelsen's analysis of the voter file updates.  There were rumors (I think someone said they heard it on MSNBC?) that there would be more official results released around 9am PST (noon EST).

That was me - it's what I heard but I haven't heard/seen any other mention of it since. They might have been referring to the above rather than a vote dump. Sorry to misinform!

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

I think we need to take a moment to consider what a special election in any remotely competitive seat will look like in a House with a majority in the low single digits.

That also makes me realize, what's going to happen if a Representative is involved in a major scandal? Would there be pressure for them to resign even if it would mean flipping control?

what happens if there's a death/resignation and the House is 217-217? Does VP make it a majority? Is there any law covering that?

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Not to be dismissive of the OR-05 thing, but local news in CO called CO-03 for Frisch (this was after other people rescinded their call). I would wait for the AP to do their thing.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Was Oregon called or was it premature?

Local journalist's thread on why they felt comfortable calling it:
https://twitter.com/mfriesen/status/1591230367452696576

this is terrible analysis. he's just extrapolating from e-day vote!

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1591227414663004162

Lake can't quite erase Hobb's 25k lead with the 114k that are party ID'd in Maricopa, and also there's 70k in Pima still and another 178k in Maricopa after these 114k.  

If Lake is going to win it'll have to be with a substantial surge in that last 178k in Maricopa, that's her last chance.

I honestly can't even imagine what goes on in the head of a Lake/Kelly voter. "A little election denialism is alright, but not TOO MUCH election denialism. I'm a true moderate hero!"

More like "oh i'll vote for the news lady and that nice astronaut boy. ok done, back to work"

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

KGW(our local NBC affiliate) has called OR-5 as well:

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/politics/elections/oregon-5th-congressional-district-election-results/283-a2fafc0c-688a-40e5-a221-1e1b570e0f5a

"The Oregonian projects Republican Lori Chavez-Deremer will win the race, defeating Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner."

same crappy call as before. Deremer might still win, but this call is bad.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Hodge's lead down to less than 1 percent.

163,440 - 160,899.

Not looking great.

How many more votes could be out there for this district? We're nearing presidential turnout for this district.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/JohnAnzo/status/1593567107983228928

It could also be that some are put off by the constant dementia-based attacks on a relatively normally-functioning old man.

And also, older unvaccinated right-wingers receiving the Herman Cain award.