I could very well see Trump getting what he needs in NYC and the immediate suburbs. The problem for him is upstate, and the Hudson Valley. I could see Trump even cracking 40% downstate while only winning upstate by a few points. Trump nearly won Dutchess in 2016, yet Zeldin only carried it by 3.5 which is pretty weak. If upstate NY became like rural PA, then he would have a shot of flipping the state, but its not and one could argue its going in the opposite direction. Downstate is still too blue to deliver NY to Republicans if upstate is only in Lean R territory.
Yes, if anything, it seems Upstate is trending toward small town New England. Could plausibly be what saves Dems in NY further down the line into the 2030's. Not sure why. I certainly wouldn't have predicted it.
One thing to note is that upstate NY has a lot of smaller liberal arts colleges that really aren't very worth it and will be first in line of the incoming demographic collapse in 2026(2008+18)
