I think the only thing these polls consistently show is Americans don’t know what the hell they’re talking about when it comes to abortion. But it’s worth nothing this is one of the best polls for Dobbs defenders so far and still a solid majority are against the decision.
I honestly think most Americans aren’t really thinking about what weeks or trimesters mean in regards to the state of a pregnancy when answering these questions though.
Issue polls are generally worthless , so my belief is the best way to get a good snapshot on what public opinion is by the results of the Kansas referendum and then extrapolate from there .
IMO it passes, but by single digits, notably closer than Trump vs. Biden.
It's been a while, but the South Dakota and Mississippi abortion votes were around 15 points more pro-choice than the previous presidential election. IF that pattern holds, Kansas should reject an anti-abortion law by something like 57-43. I would say it's a pretty good victory for the anti-abortion side if it passes at all, because it would imply some clear movement on the issue in the last 10-15 years.
And this is a R+4 and not a D+8 year. So maybe it winning by 5 or 6 points wouldn’t be unexpected though Kansas in 2020 is like 5 or 10% less Republican than South Dakota was in 2004.
I don't think people's opinion on abortion is subject to the partisan trends of any particular year in the same way that what party they decide to vote for is. I guess we'll see.
I agree. Public referendums tend to yield more progressive than expected results. Just look at how Florida approved restored voting rights to ex-felons and the Missouri collective bargaining question.
To me, this is the real evidence that progressive policies are popular. The problem is that Democrats themselves are not. But if you remove the candidate and personality aspects from elections, like in ballot initiatives, I think we may be pleasantly surprised by what the Kansas referendum result yields.
That said, abortion is certainly a more contentious issue than the two examples I mentioned before. But even then, with all the nuanced views average Americans get polled as having, Roe/Casey being overturned basically nullifies nuance in certain places. It was already the compromised approach, and that's gone now. So any reproductive freedom may appeal to the average American voting on a question like that.
Depends, Voter ID is generally still a popularish position although not massively so. Affirmative action is very unpopular, and gun control is not as popular as the polls say. You certainly dont hold a majority of the country and the only issue is "messaging"
