KY-03: Yarmuth retiring

[lfromnj]

Louisville will not get cracked and Democrats will hold this seat.

It is either safe Dem (not cracked) or safe R (cracked).  No in between here.

Swing cracked is a small option. I would say 80% not cracked. 10% cracked ,10% safe R.  Think its very unlikely based on the minority leader jumping in that fast.

[lfromnj]

I wonder if this makes the GOP more likely to crack Louisville.

They can't, the Kentucky constitution has rules on whole counties that require that the vast majority of Louisville to stay together. They could try extracting some Democratic areas from the district but it would still be a pretty solidly Biden seat so there's not much point.

Thats state legislative . Congressional is merely statuory iirc.

[lfromnj]

MI looks overwhelmingly likely to be a fresh Republican set of maps and it's really difficult to imagine  a new PA map that's not more favorable to Republicans. CA should be mostly status quo, and the seat getting cut is almost certainly Lowenthal's. (Garcia could be screwed by redistricting, but then again so could Levin). NY and IL will see harder gerrymanders but that adds up to way fewer seats than FL/GA/TX/NC and the like: the new maps are more Republican-favorable than the 2020 cycle's were.

Where are you getting that from? Michigan will have some competitive seats, but the new map is going to effectively merge MI-02 and MI-04 into one seat. That's a net loss for Republicans on the notional. Pennsylvania is problematic for Democrats, but mostly in the margins. No one has any idea what California will look like. Texas Republicans appear to mostly be going for an incumbent protection plan. NC Republicans will overreach and get struck down. We have to wait to see Georgia and Florida for Republicans and also Illinois and NY for Democrats. A lot will depend on what Florida Republicans can get away with. On the other hand, Ohio Republicans may not be able to get away with much. It's a serious wrinkle for Republicans if the OH Supreme Court forces a fair map that results in upwards of 6-7 Democratic seats.

...the draft maps which have been released by the commission, which usually have no more than 4 Safe D seats and which occasionally have no more than 5 Biden seats?

MI looks overwhelmingly likely to be a fresh Republican set of maps and it's really difficult to imagine  a new PA map that's not more favorable to Republicans. CA should be mostly status quo, and the seat getting cut is almost certainly Lowenthal's. (Garcia could be screwed by redistricting, but then again so could Levin). NY and IL will see harder gerrymanders but that adds up to way fewer seats than FL/GA/TX/NC and the like: the new maps are more Republican-favorable than the 2020 cycle's were.

"Mathematically impossible" is a strong phrase, but the House is probably already notionally Republican on the 2022 maps, so the scenario where Democrats keep the House is probably one where there's a swing to them and they perform better than they did in 2020. That's not very likely.

This is an extremely rosy outlook for the GOP. My biggest disagreement with this is that all indications so far are that Republicans are aiming for "least change" maps in their states (e.g. IN/TX/FL), and that won’t amount to "way more" seats than Democrats will pick up in NY/IL. It’s very easy to go nuclear on Republicans in CA (where you obviously don’t have a non-partisan/independent commission) and NY (Hochul has already promised to sign any aggressive gerrymander), and those two states alone would more than compensate for minor D losses in TX/FL (GOP potential here & in OH has always been overblown).

States like NJ/PA/MI (especially the first two) aren’t so much about being less favorable to Republicans than the current maps but about being less favorable to them than they should be based on pure geographic distribution of the vote (which is considerably more favorable to the GOP now than it was in 2010, especially in the Upper Midwest).

Realistically, the absolute best-case scenario for the GOP in this redistricting cycle is a wash with more "least change" maps than expected (I’m just not sure that Democrats will play along). I really don’t see much of a net gain for the GOP and never really bought those predictions.

The GOP is being a bit more tempered for incumbent protection, but believe me, they aren't done gerrymandering. If you can't see the difference between the old IN05 (which was R+8 according to 538) and the new one (R+22), then you're not using your eyes. Similarly in TX the GOP is trying to redden up the scores of suburban-ish districts that voted for Trump by less than 5 points and might be competitive in the next 2018. In GA they actually plan on getting rid of McBath. Their potential is more limited now that they have to be careful to avoid more losses in suburban seats, but they are still drawing unfair maps. The only real differences now are that a.) their maps are more incumbent-protection (NOT to be confused with 'least change' - the maps are vastly different) centred to avoid more suburban bleeding and b.) the Democrats are finally fighting fire with some fire in places like NY, OR and IL (though OR's hardly a gerrymander, and the Democrats are still weak - look at the pathetic map in CO; it's basically a map favourable to the GOP, and in CA there's an independent commission too).

FL doesn't have new maps released, but it has a state Supreme Court that has basically explicitly disavowed the logic of the 2016 ruling that led to not-as-intense gerrymanders; what's probably coming is a least-change map relative to 2011-2016. I don't know where you're getting the IN and TX stuff from either -- IN didn't go for maximalist 8-1 but still moved Spartz into a Safe R seat and unpacked the northwestern seat some, while TX came out to +2 R? FL/NC by themselves are likelier than not to cancel out IL/NY, and FL/NC/TX virtually certainly. This is before getting to the likelihood of NC drawing 11-3 or GA drawing 9R-4D-1swing-trending-right, both of which have been pretty clearly telegraphed.

(Or even things like PA, which is cutting a Republican seat but consequently seeing at least Lamb and Cartwright's seats moving significantly right, and probably Wild's and Houlahan's to some degree. Or conservative state Supreme Courts in MD and VA.)

The 2020 elections repeated all over again are virtually certainly a Republican House majority to start with.

No they didn't touch it all besides the minor population loss it had. Moved from Biden +9 to Biden +8.7 because it had to expand slightly.

[lfromnj]

Sucks, one of my favorite Congressmen. Will be really pissed if they gerrymander his district away entirely, but sadly unsurprised. Would that be the first time in history (or well, since the Democratic Party existed at least) KY has had no Democrat representing it???

Pretty much everyone here would be surprised. Thank your senator Mitch for it as well

Anyway the last time I see 0 Democrats is 9 "Unionists" during the Civil war.