VA Early Voting #s

[lfromnj]

The problem with analyzing or overinterpreting this (other than relying too much on what was always going to be an obvious D advantage in early voting that could also just be a cannibalization of D voters) is that it tells us nothing about whether Youngkin has made dramatic inroads into Democratic communities/rapidly D-trending areas. "High turnout in Richmond metro/outer NoVA" doesn’t mean much if McAuliffe's doing 15 points worse than Biden in these counties. "High turnout" in D/R areas isn’t good per se if the new/energized voters are likely to turn out against your party (also what happened in 2020 in IA/MT/Miami-Dade/etc.).

The High turnout rn in the Richmond metro is likely not very good for Democrats. It's clearly slanted towards the R leaning areas of the metro. Goochland county literally has the same turnout as Falls Church ! Now obviously dems will net more votes out of the latter than Rs will from the former.

[lfromnj]

Right now we are at roughly 937,000 early votes cast.  Though with uncounted absentee ballots that were received or in transit back, the number is probably more like 970,000.  Friday and especially Saturday should be big days in most of the state.  So I'd peg overall early vote close to 1.2 million when all ballots are received.  1 million (and definitely less) would have been terrible for Terry.  1.5 million would have been amazing.  So I'd say this is just on course.  Though reports suggest that a higher proportion of early voters are Democrats than last time, especially in the Richmond area.  That's good because there seems to be an odd surge there, especially in Chesterfield. 

It appears that the areas which are surging more than usual are battlegrounds.  Perhaps the polarization in those areas is causing more turnout on both sides.  But at least for now it looks like Dems are outperforming in those battleground areas.

NOVA turnout is obviously very high and Fairfax is now well above the state average.  But that was to be expected when the satellite offices opened. 

The strongest counties in Richmond area are are Goochland and  Hanover

[lfromnj]

Arlington at 39% of its 2017 total turnout.

Alexandria also at 39%.

Henrico at 32%.

Chesterfield at 47%.

Richmond at 29%.

Are those good numbers? Hopefully we reach Biden numbers in NoVa and Richmond metro.

Goochland is at 50%(Conservative exurb in Richmond metro). Target Smart says its all the dems but I am highly skeptical of that and it shows the data is weak. Why is Henrico so much lower than Chesterfield? I guess some of it could be HOD races but not all of it.