2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[lfromnj]

What I’m seeing so far suggests Biden is doing significantly better than Hillary with white people but worse with minorities, especially Latinos, and especially Cubans. Which some polls suggested all along. Good news is that means he probably takes back the “blue wall” in the midwest. Bad news is unless that includes Ohio, this might all come down to PA and be dragged out for days/weeks.

No he is not doing significantly better with white people.  You are trying to gaslight this forum as you have done for months, he is improving with white suburbans but rural white areas have swung harder right in Indiana and Kentucky in counties that are 95%+ reporting. Mr.Bidenmaywinelliot.

[lfromnj]

One bit of good news for Biden though, He is only down by 5 points in Bell county Texas, this means the military vote has swung a decent bit D.

[lfromnj]

Is Texas done for Biden?

Based on the suburban counties, it looks like he's going to lose by 2 or 3, like Beto.

Nope, he's running even with Beto in the suburban counties, running a touch behind in the big urban ones

And absolutely collapsed with Hispanics in the RGV

[lfromnj]

Prediction from Tender:

Biden might actually lose this election.

No, he's almost certainly going to improve over Hillary well enough to win. Miami is not the pattern but the exception.

Hispanics seem like they're swinging pretty hard to Trump, which puts the entire sunbelt out of play. Trump also seems like he's overperforming in rural counties.

Biden only needs WI + MI + PA and with the rural white swings he's very likely to get them, and it looks like overall whites swinging to Biden will swamp minorities swinging to Trump.

Rural whites have not swung D, stop trying to gaslight this forum
Looking through the 98% counted Indiana counties it just seems in most of them the 3rd party has split 50/50 with some counties swinging a point or 2 D and some swinging R. However due to increased turnout this is a pretty big net gain for Trump. However white suburban areas have zoomed left even past 2018 levels and this is why Biden is still favored in the critical 3.
 

[lfromnj]

Prediction from Tender:

Biden might actually lose this election.

No, he's almost certainly going to improve over Hillary well enough to win. Miami is not the pattern but the exception.

Hispanics seem like they're swinging pretty hard to Trump, which puts the entire sunbelt out of play. Trump also seems like he's overperforming in rural counties.

Biden only needs WI + MI + PA and with the rural white swings he's very likely to get them, and it looks like overall whites swinging to Biden will swamp minorities swinging to Trump.

Rural whites have not swung D, stop trying to gaslight this forum
Looking through the 98% counted Indiana counties it just seems in most of them the 3rd party has split 50/50 with some counties swinging a point or 2 D and some swinging R. However due to increased turnout this is a pretty big net gain for Trump. However white suburban areas have zoomed left even past 2018 levels and this is why Biden is still favored in the critical 3.
 

Biden was polling better with non college-educated whites than either Hillary's 2016 polling or result, and this is clearly being seen in counties across the map (just look at Ohio).

Lmao Ohio counties aren't fully in, look at the counties in Indiana across the border that are fully in.

[lfromnj]

Yeah guys

someone said BLM didn't affect the elections, except white woke liberals have bought into the BLM Cult, moderate minorities don't care and are sick of that bullsh**t

[lfromnj]

Oh damn, Trump is winning Macomb county by a sizable margin even though 35% of the vote is in.

Guys stop paying attention to counties where there isn't atleast 80% of the vote in. There is 0 chance Macomb is 70% Trump while Mahoning county is 60% Biden, stop looking at Ohio and Michigan.

[lfromnj]

White people saving the DEMS is exactly what 2020 ordered.

*White suburbans, white rurals are decently better for Trump by net vote margin.

[lfromnj]

Collin County now 98% in - Trump only up by 2.

Biden is on track to do worse than Beto yet he looks like he's gonna win more state house districts .

[lfromnj]

White people saving the DEMS is exactly what 2020 ordered.

The vast majority of the rioters and thugs are white. Whites have lost our minds and a large part of our population are a bunch of pro-crime sjw cowards,. It would truly be something if hispanics save trump!

There aren't enough Hispanics to save Trump.  This is actually the 2012 autospy taken to the max except WWC and white suburban trading places. Romney could have won 70% of the Hispanic vote and still lose the election.

[lfromnj]

Yeah guys

someone said BLM didn't affect the elections, except white woke liberals have bought into the BLM Cult, moderate minorities don't care and are sick of that bullsh**t

Something tells me it's a bit more complicated than your whitesplaining, but thanks for your contribution.

Not white, speaking from what happened to my Asian Immigrant parents

[lfromnj]

I think the NM call is really stupid before any real data comes in

Hot Take:

Trump's best chances(not very high but I would say 20%)
is dependent on the TX Hispanic swing affecting Nevada and New Mexico.

[lfromnj]

Biden still wins the presidency if he improves on Clinton’s margins by 1% in the midwest.  Is there any indication right now that he is failing to do this?

Check the fully counted Indiana counties, most of them are about a 0 to 1 swing for Trump with much better rural turnout, I still think he loses the core 3.

[lfromnj]

So far as I can tell Trump is tracking to win Ohio by slightly less than he won it in 2016, with better margins in most working class areas but worse margins in suburbs. Just might go down to the wire in the Blue Wall but I still say Biden has a narrow edge

Whats your guess for NM and NV?

I think its Trump's best chances,, I don't care about Ralston calling the registration edge.

[lfromnj]

Ohio still has tons left in Franklin, Cuyahoga, Hamilton, Lucas, and Summit, and lots of Rural counties are nearly done.   There's no way Ohio isn't competitive for Biden still.

He's losing Lorain county lol.

[lfromnj]

Minnesota seems pretty good for Biden

Anoka county is only Trump +1 at 93% in, its suburban Minneapolis but more working class and it trended R in 2016. Was Trump +10.

[lfromnj]

Re: Ashland County, WI, Guardian has it has at 100% with Trump win, but NYT at only 61% with same number of votes. Must be outstanding mail-in ballots. Hopefully Biden can still win it.

It had 11.5 and 9.5k votes in 2016 + 1.5 3rd party so its not 100%

[lfromnj]

So we went from idiots harping about how Biden's leading the EV in Ohio to Trump winning Mahoning county Ohio.

[lfromnj]

I don’t understand. For weeks people have been warned about the “red mirage,” yet people are still falling for it anyway.

Yet you fell for some stupid blue mirage in Kentucky
I perfectly understand.

[lfromnj]

Biden has very likely won AZ.

With AZ , Sinema won 45% of whites so makes sense considering almost all the whites are suburbans.

[lfromnj]

Although the Rio Grande Valley has been an absolute disaster for Democrats El Paso has only seen a 6 point swing towards Trump which is well bad but not awful for Biden

[lfromnj]

I won't jinx it, but it's nice that it's quieted down here a bit. 

The amount of early celebration and early despair was absolutely insufferable. 

Think they muted some doomers who were not actually being constructive.

Good!

Mods, please add Millennial moderate to your list

Ragging on the “doomers” for weeks and months.

Then when we’re right ... muting us? Sounds fair lol

No, mute you when you become a completely repetitive broken record without even attempting to make tangible contributions to the discussion.

Shape up or ship out

Yes because instead we need takes about how Biden is going to massively improve in Elliot County Kentucky.

[lfromnj]

Here's something I need an explanation on: Biden's up 46% in Santa Cruz County, Arizona, which is consistent with Hillary's margin there from 2016. That's a heavily Mexican-American county. Biden's margin in the Rio Grande Valley is nowhere near Hillary's margin in the Rio Grande Valley. Are we missing, like, an enormous number of outstanding, Democratic mail votes there, and a much higher turnout than 2016? Because I can't figure out why those margins would be so wildly different.

Hillary won that by 56?

However it seems once you reach El Paso the hispanic vote has still swung R but is no longer a disaster.

[lfromnj]

New Mexico voting to the right of Arizona rn...

Wtf?

Arizona whites are much more liberal than NM whites lol.

And Arizona whites are almost all suburban.

[lfromnj]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wayne_County,_Ohio#Politics

Weird, Wayne county ohio is some random medium sized ohio county and somehow Biden nearly did as good as Obama 08. Feel