IA-Selzer: Trump +7

[lfromnj]

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=251190.msg7710734#msg7710734

Heres the poll from 2016 and forum reaction.

I think people should genuinely take this as a small yellow flag atleast. Im still pretty sure Biden wins but its absurd gaslighting to say one should just entirely discount this poll.

Hopefully Maine is next

No, but WI, MI and MN are in play. Probably NH.

Michigan Wisconsin and Minnesota are not in play.

We don't know that. If this Iowa result is right, then theu are in play along with Pennsylvania, while Ohio is safe Trump.

[lfromnj]

Waiting for the House polls. I'm expecting that they'll have all the Democrats down like 20% in each district (in IA-4 that wouldn't be surprising though).

The house polls are always junk from selzer and should not be read. The sample size is like 150 each.

[lfromnj]

Go back and read the Atlas thread discussing the final Selzer poll in 2016. People were sticking their heads in the sand then too. This is a really ominous sign.

Yup I even bumped it for all.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=251190.75
I don't think this means that Trump wins, although it has enough 2016 vibes to bring my odds of Biden winning to somewhere around 80% for the election.

[lfromnj]

Districts:

IA-01: R+15
IA-02: R+1
IA-03: D+6
IA-04: R+17

Hello, outlier. This is just not possible even remotely.

I JUST WARNED EVERYONE its a sample size of 200 for the district polls and it should be discounted, I even recall having this exact conversation a few months . There is obviously no way Iowa 2nd is 14 points to the left of the first but thats merely MOE and the district polls are merely crosstabs and should be seen as such, I have no idea why Selzer even reports them without at least doubling their total poll size. Even if the 1st is way too R friendly, for Trump +7 the 4th is way too D friendly. The 2nd seems about right and I am not sure about the 3rd which is the only Iowa district that has a major city so it could trend differently.

However Iowa 2nd and the 1st had the same Obama and Trump numbers although the 2nd has more red rurals while the 1st has less blue D counties.

[lfromnj]

Districts:

IA-01: R+15
IA-02: R+1
IA-03: D+6
IA-04: R+17

What the....?

I said almost two years ago that Finkenauer would be one of the most likely Dem flips.

Firstly, she's not a good candidate. Also there are no major cities in her district (Cedar Rapids doesn't count), not many suburbs, virtually no minorities and it's not particularly well educated. A district like that is not staying Dem in 2020 outside of New England.

But Trump only won here by about 4 points. This district is just like Cheri Bustos’ and Ron Kind’s districts, and neither of them seem in much trouble.

Do i have to keep spamming small sample size for the districts, therefore high MOE. Junk the district polls from Selzer. Iowa 2nd and Iowa 1st should basically have the same margin.

[lfromnj]

Have they always had the "Don't want to tell (Already Voted only)" option in the past? The amount there (5% in the Presidential race and 4% in the Senate race) almost 100% explains the support that both Biden and Greenfield lost from the September poll.

I think at least some of Biden’s support is hidden in the “Don’t want to tell (Already Voted only).” Trump so probably still up, but not this much.

Shy Trump voter to Shy Biden voter theory?

Well there are some shy voters, guess we find out on Tuesday.

[lfromnj]

Another laughable cross-tab: Trump is winning the youth vote!

Iowa state campus residence precinct, Johnson county college students are way more D although non college youth in Iowa were probably more R.

I don't think its that unbelievable for that crosstab. The good thing about this precint is as far as I can tell is thats only the university student dorms. A lot of other college precincts also include the area nearby which are way more D.

[lfromnj]

I said almost two years ago that Finkenauer would be one of the most likely Dem flips.

Firstly, she's not a good candidate. Also there are no major cities in her district (Cedar Rapids doesn't count), not many suburbs, virtually no minorities and it's not particularly well educated. A district like that is not staying Dem in 2020 outside of New England.

But Trump only won here by about 4 points. This district is just like Cheri Bustos’ and Ron Kind’s districts, and neither of them seem in much trouble.

They may not be in trouble now, but if it is a Biden midterm in 2022, Bustos/Kind will be in trouble then. If IL Dems have half a brain, they will draw a ridiculous tentacle from Bustos' district into Chicagoland.

There is little need to draw it to Chicago Land, just strip the rurals and add Mcclean county. There isn't even enough room in Chicago land.

[lfromnj]

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=251190.msg7710734#msg7710734

Heres the poll from 2016 and forum reaction.

I think people should genuinely take this as a small yellow flag atleast. Im still pretty sure Biden wins but its absurd gaslighting to say one should just entirely discount this poll.

Hopefully Maine is next

No, but WI, MI and MN are in play. Probably NH.

Michigan Wisconsin and Minnesota are not in play.

We don't know that. If this Iowa result is right, then theu are in play along with Pennsylvania, while Ohio is safe Trump.

Seems like I got the correct assumptions from this poll right, I even warned about the sample size for the districts. I still think I have overestimated Biden in the Midwest with my guess being +4.5 biden in PA and MI.

[lfromnj]

Everyone who attacked Selzer after this poll owes her an apology.  Especially LeanTossup, who really went after her.

I'll start:  I was dumb to use the Dem primary screw-up as an attack on Selzer.  It wasn't even her fault that her callers listed Buttigieg incorrectly.  And her leaked results weren't very far off from the actual results.  It was just me clutching at any signal that she was unprofessional or declining so I could discount this outlier poll.

Good on you, eating your crow is important, I was wrong too in certain races (Texas especially and I will eat it)
Thanks for admitting you were wrong unlike a lot of people

[lfromnj]

I love this thread reached 20 pages and half of it was that hack S-MD avatar saying the poll was junk and asking why are there so many pages?

[lfromnj]

So turns out it was a good Yellow/red flag for the driftless area as it continued to swing right in Iowa and Wisconsin and Illinois. In Minnesota it did swing left a touch though.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/mattmfm/status/1322916712468172800?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1322916712468172800%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2F2%2Ftwitter.min.html1322916712468172800

Smth seems off here.....

Yeah... I’m starting to wonder if there was some kind of organized manipulation of this poll by Trump supporters somehow.

LMAO this is getting great, I wonder if you have anymore hidden gems from earlier this year.