Honestly it may be a good thing for Dems that Kander is not running, since that means it should be a lot less likely that Democrats will be fooled into thinking that Missouri is winnable, and consequently they are less likely to waste tens of millions of dollars there on ineffective television ads. The bad news is that they will waste tens of millions of dollars in Kentucky in order to lose to Rand Paul (albeit probably quite a bit less than was wasted this year against Mitch McConnell).
I actually wonder which race could be the TX/KY/SC of 2022 - an ultimately unwinnable race that liberals still donate a s**t ton to. It's hard to think of any incumbent Senators in this class who are boogeymen in the same way that Cruz, Mitch and Lindsey are. Maybe Ron Johnson?
I'd argue that TX is not in the same tier given that Beto revitalized the Texas Dems. Ron Johnson is not as hated, but he could also very plausibly go down.
It was still unwinnable in 2020 although IIRC its not even like Hegar took that much relative to Texas's size.
