House districts with illegal racial gerrymanders

[lfromnj]

There are many gerrymandered districts, but are there currently any that violate anti-racial gerrymandering laws?

I can think of three right now:  LA-02, AL-07, and SC-06.  All three districts needlessly pack African American voters into one district to keep the them from being able to elect a representative of their choice in at least one neighboring district.  All three of these states could easily have a second district where African Americans could elect a representative of their choice.

LA02 IIRC it was all but impossible to draw a 2nd black seat in 2010 due to Katrina,
AL07 sure it makes sense to have one black belt seat based in Montgomery and the black belt and then one Birmingham seat, having 2 black seats with an arm to mobile is just as absurd as the current seat.

SC- Clyburn wanted a super safe black seat too and he asked the GOP for a 6-1(disgusting and should be primaried and I laugh at the fact Democrats wanted him) Its true the GOP would have done 6-1 anyway but any sane Democrat should atleast put up the appearance of a 5-2.

[lfromnj]

There are many gerrymandered districts, but are there currently any that violate anti-racial gerrymandering laws?

I can think of three right now:  LA-02, AL-07, and SC-06.  All three districts needlessly pack African American voters into one district to keep the them from being able to elect a representative of their choice in at least one neighboring district.  All three of these states could easily have a second district where African Americans could elect a representative of their choice.

LA02 IIRC it was all but impossible to draw a 2nd black seat in 2010 due to Katrina,
AL07 sure it makes sense to have one black belt seat based in Montgomery and the black belt and then one Birmingham seat, having 2 black seats with an arm to mobile is just as absurd as the current seat.

SC- Clyburn wanted a super safe black seat too and he asked the GOP for a 6-1(disgusting and should be primaried and I laugh at the fact Democrats wanted him) Its true the GOP would have done 6-1 anyway but any sane Democrat should atleast put up the appearance of a 5-2.

I had actually thought that Clyburn was pushing for a second black opportunity district?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=130462.msg2903899#msg2903899

Was reading this thread, the link is dead unfortunately

[lfromnj]

Ideally SC really shouldn't have any VRA seats, it should rather have 3 competitive seats, 1 based in Charleston, one in Columbia and one in the black belt, sadly neither party would ever want that because the GOP would risk seats and Clyburn would be unhappy with anything but a Super Safe seat. If a democrat is elected all 3 except maybe the Charleston seat would likely have had the candidate of the black communities choice.(see MS state senate, there were 2 Leaning districts but Democrats just sued for one Safe D district and one Safe R district instead of actually trying)

[lfromnj]

Depends who's in the court, the Obama DOJ didn't sue because they felt SCOTUS wouldn't strike them down.

[lfromnj]

There are some in TX that would be illegal if not for the ridiculous standard Abbott v. Perez set for striking down maps

By the Gingles Test, the Fajitas themselves shouldn't be there and there should be a 95% Hispanic district in Hidalgo. The main underrepresented group in Texas rn is white liberals in Austin.

And texas 23 is a good idea(in a vaccum) its absurd that a district should always have to be completely safe for a minority especially in a region where perhaps only 60-65% of Hispanics vote Democrat.  Anyway a fair map rn wou ld have 2 RGV seats, 1 El paso, 1 swing RGV seat, 2 San Antonio with being slightly swingish. However 3-4 in Dallas and 3-4 in Houston along with 2 in Austin.

[lfromnj]

What would a fair map of Alabama look like?

A black belt seat with Montgomery and a Birmingham seat that would likely elect a black candidate but depending on the extra precints, a Republican in some years.

[lfromnj]

There are many gerrymandered districts, but are there currently any that violate anti-racial gerrymandering laws?

I can think of three right now:  LA-02, AL-07, and SC-06.  All three districts needlessly pack African American voters into one district to keep the them from being able to elect a representative of their choice in at least one neighboring district.  All three of these states could easily have a second district where African Americans could elect a representative of their choice.

LA02 IIRC it was all but impossible to draw a 2nd black seat in 2010 due to Katrina,
AL07 sure it makes sense to have one black belt seat based in Montgomery and the black belt and then one Birmingham seat, having 2 black seats with an arm to mobile is just as absurd as the current seat.

This is conflating two separate things. It wasn't possible to draw 2 seats with a black majority in Louisiana, it was perfectly possible to draw 1 seat with a black majority and another where blacks would likely have been able to elect the candidate of their choice.

I'd also point out that AL-07 already gets within about 40 miles of Mobile. Sticking an arm out to grab it isn't absurd unless you think the VRA as a whole is absurd.

It isn't absurd to stick an arm out ,but Democrats complain about the arm to Birmingham but then want one to Mobile. Both of them split a community and neither should be done. Both the Birmingham and Mobile metro are big enough for their own seat

[lfromnj]

True Black seats that are 50% VAP would almost all but require a triple chop of Baton Rouge which is a parish of 450k people that doesn't even get its own dedicated congressional district based around it. However a fair map would combine Orleans with most of Jefferson Parish for a D trending almost 60% Clinton but low 40% black(albiet with significant Hispanic population in Jefferson) and then draw a Mississippi  river seat that also has a significant base in Baton Rouge that would be black majority but to actually get 2 black VAP seats you have to either make it super tendrily to smaller towns for the New Orleans seat or draw partly into Baton rouge with 2010 population.

[lfromnj]

I don't think AL-07 or MS-02 is necessarily a problem.  If 2011 VA-03 fell, 2011 LA-02 should obviously fall as well.  Is it possible to draw 2 majority-black CVAP districts in SC without linking distant metros like VA-03 or LA-02?  If so, SC-06 should also fall.

They don’t have to be majority, just have a high enough percentage of African Americans to elect a representative of their choice in both districts.  In S.C., you would have one district anchored in Charleston and another in the connecting Columbia and the PeeDee.  Both districts would have a Democratic performance in the high 50s and a black percentage in the high 40s.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/south-carolina/#Compact

the current SC map wasn't illegal anyway, by the current courts, but a pure fair map would do something like this. (usually 538 compact maps may violate COI's) but here its clear that it makes 3 compact competetive COI's. Arguably it might be worth breaking up the Charleston COI to take Beaufort so the Myrtle beach district takes in Berkeley for 2 coastal districts and then make SC 6th even more black belt based, it would be a competitive black belt seat with it possibly falling in R wave years.

However as I said this violates probably violates the VRA because competitive minority districts are forbidden. Also somehow even if a court did strike down the SC map for a fair map Clyburn would cry for a safe district with Columbia at the very least despite the fact Columbia makes for a very neat almost full congressional district with its suburban county Lexington that is also very competitive.

[lfromnj]

I don't think AL-07 or MS-02 is necessarily a problem.  If 2011 VA-03 fell, 2011 LA-02 should obviously fall as well.  Is it possible to draw 2 majority-black CVAP districts in SC without linking distant metros like VA-03 or LA-02?  If so, SC-06 should also fall.

They don’t have to be majority, just have a high enough percentage of African Americans to elect a representative of their choice in both districts.  In S.C., you would have one district anchored in Charleston and another in the connecting Columbia and the PeeDee.  Both districts would have a Democratic performance in the high 50s and a black percentage in the high 40s.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/south-carolina/#Compact

the current SC map wasn't illegal anyway, by the current courts, but a pure fair map would do something like this. (usually 538 compact maps may violate COI's) but here its clear that it makes 3 compact competetive COI's. Arguably it might be worth breaking up the Charleston COI to take Beaufort so the Myrtle beach district takes in Berkeley for 2 coastal districts and then make SC 6th even more black belt based, it would be a competitive black belt seat with it possibly falling in R wave years.

However as I said this violates probably violates the VRA because competitive minority districts are forbidden. Also somehow even if a court did strike down the SC map for a fair map Clyburn would cry for a safe district with Columbia at the very least despite the fact Columbia makes for a very neat almost full congressional district with its suburban county Lexington that is also very competitive.

Competitive minority districts are forbidden, really? Is California's AD-72 an "illegal district" because it's a swing district in the Asian Belt? Are you arguing that Section 2 is unconstitutional?

I do exaggerate but Vietnamese are quite different, See Texas 23 for the best complaints but also the rest of the RGV(they can't be TOOO safe either) which is just a bunch of random bs meant to already inflate an already inflated groups representation.

[lfromnj]

I don't think AL-07 or MS-02 is necessarily a problem.  If 2011 VA-03 fell, 2011 LA-02 should obviously fall as well.  Is it possible to draw 2 majority-black CVAP districts in SC without linking distant metros like VA-03 or LA-02?  If so, SC-06 should also fall.

They don’t have to be majority, just have a high enough percentage of African Americans to elect a representative of their choice in both districts.  In S.C., you would have one district anchored in Charleston and another in the connecting Columbia and the PeeDee.  Both districts would have a Democratic performance in the high 50s and a black percentage in the high 40s.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/south-carolina/#Compact

the current SC map wasn't illegal anyway, by the current courts, but a pure fair map would do something like this. (usually 538 compact maps may violate COI's) but here its clear that it makes 3 compact competetive COI's. Arguably it might be worth breaking up the Charleston COI to take Beaufort so the Myrtle beach district takes in Berkeley for 2 coastal districts and then make SC 6th even more black belt based, it would be a competitive black belt seat with it possibly falling in R wave years.

However as I said this violates probably violates the VRA because competitive minority districts are forbidden. Also somehow even if a court did strike down the SC map for a fair map Clyburn would cry for a safe district with Columbia at the very least despite the fact Columbia makes for a very neat almost full congressional district with its suburban county Lexington that is also very competitive.

Competitive minority districts are forbidden, really? Is California's AD-72 an "illegal district" because it's a swing district in the Asian Belt? Are you arguing that Section 2 is unconstitutional?

I do exaggerate but Vietnamese are quite different, See Texas 23 for the best complaints but also the rest of the RGV(they can't be TOOO safe either) which is just a bunch of random bs meant to already inflate an already inflated groups representation.

Does that mean you believe Section 2 is unconstitutional?

Not the entire thing, I believe it makes sense for deep Southern black seats(especially because many of those seats are valid COI's) but in Hispanic regions it should really just not be there especially because it requires CVAP to be done despite the fact that many people who demand that would be mad at citizen based reapportionment but they also demand it for certain seats., in northern cities I don't believe white suburbs/exurbs should be paired with black inner cities such as Chicago either because it ruins the COI's(speaking in a fair map), so a better example might be keeping detroit whole in one congressional district although one could argue the metro is big enough for detroit to have influence over districts which isn't bad either.

If the hispanic group is in a valid COI then don't racially split them up but they don't deserve to be extended with white rurals.

[lfromnj]

If I was drawing a map in SC for middle and low country.
Green is Safe R
Blue is Trump +2 while red is CLinton +4.5(Clyburns district)
Purple is Clinton +8 and only won Tim Scott lost in 2016.

All COI's except maybe the Charleston COI is kept together but I made 2 coastal districts in exchange for that and it helped preserve the black belt seat. This is a no VRA map and I bet one could offer this map to Clyburn and he wouldn't take it.

[lfromnj]

>connecting New orleans to Baton Rouge another city on the MS river
Racist GERRYMANDER STRIKE IT DOWN SCOTUS !
Connecting baton rouge to Shreveport a city on the other side of the state
#fairmaps

[lfromnj]

If you have to go Shreveport for a second black district or split the lake it isnt a fair map, and yes I agree that drawing it to Baton Rouge is a gerrymander to pack in D's
but drawing it to Shreveport is also an unnecessary gerrymander to help Democrats out.

[lfromnj]

If its not possible to make a reasonable compact AA district then it isn't needed especially according to the Gingles test