2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Florida

[lfromnj]

Now the narrative on the St.Pete tampa district has gone from packing black voters to cracking them because it doesn't keep the St.Pete black community whole. I don't know why people can't just call it a partisan gerrymander instead of being a racial one.

[lfromnj]

You have to wonder if the legislature was in kahoots with DeSantis all along and the other maps were just smoke and mirrors

The one thing that gives me a pause is the rumors about the staff, along with the final house map. If they were in total smoke and mirrors, they would have just kept the original FL 5th. That version of a Duval only seat showed there was a clear option to preserve a degree of black influence. For example a Federal court should be looking at the US constitution first but try to do the least damage within the limits of state law. That is why my guess is that a Federal court probably picks something like the house map if this went to court.

What language exactly in what law makes the DeSantis map legally vulnerable in your opinion?  

The FDA as its a partisan gerrymander?

Is that the only line of attack in your view with traction in a non partisan court of law?

 I mean from a partisan gerrymander standpoint Orlando/Jacksonville also have arguments although not to the point of beyond reasonable doubt. After all the St.Johns river is an easy argument for Jax while Orlando just has the 7th placed with Deltona instead of Winter Park and places Lake county with the entire Lake region in West Orange County. There's still a chance the court just ignores the law like the Ohio R justices did with regards to Cincinatti.

What would you strike down if you were such an arbitrator of the FDA?



edit: Going further regarding Orlando. Putting a Seminole Volusia seat is pretty justifiable. However DeSantis's map does the sneaky thing of going further into deep red Volusia instead of taking Deland. DeLand pretty naturally follows as an Orlando exurb instead of the more coastal portion of Volusia. If Democrats are going the partisanship route on this district this might be a point worth bringing up.

[lfromnj]

And there goes the house for the next 10 years.

This country is so ed

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1514351540945002498

calm yourself.

[lfromnj]

So why didn't the Democrats vote to override? Protecting Al Lawson clearly wasn't a reason.

FL house dems were really dumb and opposed the less aggressive maps but the reality is this was all political theater. They always wanted a more aggressive map

Why would Florida House Democrats prefer that map?

He's saying FL Republicans just did a bunch of theater and always wanted an aggressive map. I don't know, it is a possible theory but the house map that "compromised"* over FL 5th makes me think twice as it really weakens the legal argument and DeSantis had to do some weird stuff to get around that. Originally his argument that FL 5th was illegal was pretty solid. However when the house drew the Duval only FL 5th, it really can't be illegal by any argument except maybe with Clarence Thomas, Sure it was a bit donuty but it was still plenty compact and could be reasonably drawn for a reason outside of race. So because of that DeSantis made up some stupid legal argument to veto the map which is really shaky IMO.

* Note it was pretty sad to see most of the media saying that the house caved into the DeSantis by redrawing FL 5th like that. It absolutely was not a cave in, and infact doing that move arguably slightly hurt Republicans. The reason they originally redrew it was because of actual reasonable fear that DeSantis's theory was correct.

[lfromnj]

Yeah I agree with what most folks here have said so far.

The issue with this map isn't that it terribly violates COIs. For what it's worth compared to a lot of other maps, it's relatively clean and COIs get into highly subjective area. This would probably be the weakest argument in court.

The second argument would be partisanship. This is where things become a bit more iffy. The median seat test of the median seat usually being 5ish points to the right of the state isn't great for a state with 28 districts but isn't terrible either. However, the median seat test alone isn't a whole lot. The efficiency gap is def pretty favoable to Rs. However, partisan symmetry isn't that bad outside of 2020 Pres considering most Dems at least win FL-27 and FL-28 narrowly while doing worse in many of the "suburban" lean R seats like FL-15 and FL-07. 2020 is really the only election where the partisan symmetry is really bad.

The third and strongest argument is what the map does with black voters and the general hypocracy. If one wants to make the argument the FL-05 snake should be eliminated, then why was a likely black functioning based within Duval created? Furthermore, why was FL-20 kept as is rather than becoming Ft Lauderdale based? It's just as much of a racial gerrymander as FL-05 if you're arguing FL-05 is illegal. Furthermore, why was the black community within Orlando split when FL-10 was never a problem in the first place? Also wouldn't the new FL-14 crossing the bay go against this ideology of prioritizing COIs and compactness above minority representation. This is the hypocrisy the GOP will have to defend and so we'll see how they do.

Also just gotta say compared to a lot of GOP gerries, DeSantis is really betting that current coalitions don't change much and/or that the GOP will continue to improve in Florida. That's quite a lot of Trump < 10 districts, all of which are pretty unique. Still a net benefit to the GOP but still slightly less than maximal.

I still think FL 20th is quite bad and should have been chopped to Broward only FWIW although I do think Palm Beach AA's and Broward AA's are decently close enough. After all South Florida is just one giant super metro.  It's still bad although closer to IL 4th I guess? . Infact FL Rs could have done what IL Dems did. It's still going to be fun to see how DeSantis explains that away. Really no logic behind it in the end.

Also One thing to note is the current map in Orlando for FL 10th is 28.5% black while the new one is 28.3% black. Really hard to argue this is splitting the Orlando black community .

And yes there isn't really much justification to crossing the bay. It's clearly the ringer for unfair partisan advantage. To be fair the way it looks is actually fairly compact to a normie but its obviously a gerrymander.  The best argument I have for splitting St.Petersburg off is that Pinellas county outside of St.Pete is a fairly uniform area of densely populated suburbia and St.Pete is the odd area of the county. This actually is true but the idea of crossing the bay is lol. It definetely is just a hope that the court lets it slide similar to how Oregon Dems crossed the Cascades by arguing that Bend is different from the rest of the East.

Overall you are correct in that the map although very aggressive is actually somewhat similar to what Nevada D's did. They maximized the ceiling/floor in a good/neutral year but didn't max out the gerrymander such as by going all the way to Reno which makes it riskier in a bad year.

[lfromnj]

Yeah I agree with what most folks here have said so far.

The issue with this map isn't that it terribly violates COIs. For what it's worth compared to a lot of other maps, it's relatively clean and COIs get into highly subjective area. This would probably be the weakest argument in court.

The second argument would be partisanship. This is where things become a bit more iffy. The median seat test of the median seat usually being 5ish points to the right of the state isn't great for a state with 28 districts but isn't terrible either. However, the median seat test alone isn't a whole lot. The efficiency gap is def pretty favoable to Rs. However, partisan symmetry isn't that bad outside of 2020 Pres considering most Dems at least win FL-27 and FL-28 narrowly while doing worse in many of the "suburban" lean R seats like FL-15 and FL-07. 2020 is really the only election where the partisan symmetry is really bad.

The third and strongest argument is what the map does with black voters and the general hypocracy. If one wants to make the argument the FL-05 snake should be eliminated, then why was a likely black functioning based within Duval created? Furthermore, why was FL-20 kept as is rather than becoming Ft Lauderdale based? It's just as much of a racial gerrymander as FL-05 if you're arguing FL-05 is illegal. Furthermore, why was the black community within Orlando split when FL-10 was never a problem in the first place? Also wouldn't the new FL-14 crossing the bay go against this ideology of prioritizing COIs and compactness above minority representation. This is the hypocrisy the GOP will have to defend and so we'll see how they do.

Also just gotta say compared to a lot of GOP gerries, DeSantis is really betting that current coalitions don't change much and/or that the GOP will continue to improve in Florida. That's quite a lot of Trump < 10 districts, all of which are pretty unique. Still a net benefit to the GOP but still slightly less than maximal.

I still think FL 20th is quite bad and should have been chopped to Broward only FWIW although I do think Palm Beach AA's and Broward AA's are decently close enough. After all South Florida is just one giant super metro.  It's still bad although closer to IL 4th I guess? . Infact FL Rs could have done what IL Dems did. It's still going to be fun to see how DeSantis explains that away. Really no logic behind it in the end.

Also One thing to note is the current map in Orlando for FL 10th is 28.5% black while the new one is 28.3% black. Really hard to argue this is splitting the Orlando black community .

And yes there isn't really much justification to crossing the bay. It's clearly the ringer for unfair partisan advantage. To be fair the way it looks is actually fairly compact to a normie but its obviously a gerrymander.  The best argument I have for splitting St.Petersburg off is that Pinellas county outside of St.Pete is a fairly uniform area of densely populated suburbia and St.Pete is the odd area of the county. This actually is true but the idea of crossing the bay is lol. It definetely is just a hope that the court lets it slide similar to how Oregon Dems crossed the Cascades by arguing that Bend is different from the rest of the East.

Overall you are correct in that the map although very aggressive is actually somewhat similar to what Nevada D's did. They maximized the ceiling/floor in a good/neutral year but didn't max out the gerrymander such as by going all the way to Reno which makes it riskier in a bad year.

Ye pretty much agree with your entire post. St. Peters def has a different vibe than the rest of Pinellas and that can be backed up racially and politically but crossing the bay is one of the 10 sins of redistricting (alongside splitting Bucks and having Minneapolis and St. Paul in one, and yes, crossing the cascades).

As for FL-10, I'd make the argument the black population should naturally increase given FL-10 had a 26% growth and is overpopulated by 14%. That may not seem like a lot, but the fact the black population stayed basically the same shows how DeSantis's map shaves off both some of the white and black communities in the district.

IIRC the original senate proposal had it like 30%. In the end this is extremely easy to argue against in court. It doesn't reduce the percentage from the current district and the non partisan argument is that the western portion of the county actually goes quite well with Lake County while this creates a district more based in the central part of Orange County.

[lfromnj]

Yeah I agree with what most folks here have said so far.

The issue with this map isn't that it terribly violates COIs. For what it's worth compared to a lot of other maps, it's relatively clean and COIs get into highly subjective area. This would probably be the weakest argument in court.

The second argument would be partisanship. This is where things become a bit more iffy. The median seat test of the median seat usually being 5ish points to the right of the state isn't great for a state with 28 districts but isn't terrible either. However, the median seat test alone isn't a whole lot. The efficiency gap is def pretty favoable to Rs. However, partisan symmetry isn't that bad outside of 2020 Pres considering most Dems at least win FL-27 and FL-28 narrowly while doing worse in many of the "suburban" lean R seats like FL-15 and FL-07. 2020 is really the only election where the partisan symmetry is really bad.

The third and strongest argument is what the map does with black voters and the general hypocracy. If one wants to make the argument the FL-05 snake should be eliminated, then why was a likely black functioning based within Duval created? Furthermore, why was FL-20 kept as is rather than becoming Ft Lauderdale based? It's just as much of a racial gerrymander as FL-05 if you're arguing FL-05 is illegal. Furthermore, why was the black community within Orlando split when FL-10 was never a problem in the first place? Also wouldn't the new FL-14 crossing the bay go against this ideology of prioritizing COIs and compactness above minority representation. This is the hypocrisy the GOP will have to defend and so we'll see how they do.

Also just gotta say compared to a lot of GOP gerries, DeSantis is really betting that current coalitions don't change much and/or that the GOP will continue to improve in Florida. That's quite a lot of Trump < 10 districts, all of which are pretty unique. Still a net benefit to the GOP but still slightly less than maximal.

I still think FL 20th is quite bad and should have been chopped to Broward only FWIW although I do think Palm Beach AA's and Broward AA's are decently close enough. After all South Florida is just one giant super metro.  It's still bad although closer to IL 4th I guess? . Infact FL Rs could have done what IL Dems did. It's still going to be fun to see how DeSantis explains that away. Really no logic behind it in the end.

Also One thing to note is the current map in Orlando for FL 10th is 28.5% black while the new one is 28.3% black. Really hard to argue this is splitting the Orlando black community .

And yes there isn't really much justification to crossing the bay. It's clearly the ringer for unfair partisan advantage. To be fair the way it looks is actually fairly compact to a normie but its obviously a gerrymander.  The best argument I have for splitting St.Petersburg off is that Pinellas county outside of St.Pete is a fairly uniform area of densely populated suburbia and St.Pete is the odd area of the county. This actually is true but the idea of crossing the bay is lol. It definetely is just a hope that the court lets it slide similar to how Oregon Dems crossed the Cascades by arguing that Bend is different from the rest of the East.

Overall you are correct in that the map although very aggressive is actually somewhat similar to what Nevada D's did. They maximized the ceiling/floor in a good/neutral year but didn't max out the gerrymander such as by going all the way to Reno which makes it riskier in a bad year.

Ye pretty much agree with your entire post. St. Peters def has a different vibe than the rest of Pinellas and that can be backed up racially and politically but crossing the bay is one of the 10 sins of redistricting (alongside splitting Bucks and having Minneapolis and St. Paul in one, and yes, crossing the cascades).

As for FL-10, I'd make the argument the black population should naturally increase given FL-10 had a 26% growth and is overpopulated by 14%. That may not seem like a lot, but the fact the black population stayed basically the same shows how DeSantis's map shaves off both some of the white and black communities in the district.

IIRC the original senate proposal had it like 30%. In the end this is extremely easy to argue against in court.

30 is about the highest it can realistically go froma  topline perspective unless you reach up into Sanford, but DeSantis's map knocks it out of a plurality in a Dem primary which is also important. A 30% black seat that's a D pack is very different than a 30% black seat with a lot of white Rs.

Yes the primary argument is there but in the end , it shouldn't really be a largely debated argument in court. 28.5 to 28.3% is going to be the key statistic and that will be the end of that. Note if you actually want to complain about Orlando I would recommend reading above and seeing the sneaky move DeSantis did regarding some townships in Volusia.

[lfromnj]

You have to wonder if the legislature was in kahoots with DeSantis all along and the other maps were just smoke and mirrors

The one thing that gives me a pause is the rumors about the staff, along with the final house map. If they were in total smoke and mirrors, they would have just kept the original FL 5th. That version of a Duval only seat showed there was a clear option to preserve a degree of black influence. For example a Federal court should be looking at the US constitution first but try to do the least damage within the limits of state law. That is why my guess is that a Federal court probably picks something like the house map if this went to court.

What language exactly in what law makes the DeSantis map legally vulnerable in your opinion? 

The FDA as its a partisan gerrymander?

The cross the bay CD and the failure to have a nested CD in Duval do need an explanation that is other than a partisan one.

Duval is easy. St johns river

[lfromnj]

You have to wonder if the legislature was in kahoots with DeSantis all along and the other maps were just smoke and mirrors

The one thing that gives me a pause is the rumors about the staff, along with the final house map. If they were in total smoke and mirrors, they would have just kept the original FL 5th. That version of a Duval only seat showed there was a clear option to preserve a degree of black influence. For example a Federal court should be looking at the US constitution first but try to do the least damage within the limits of state law. That is why my guess is that a Federal court probably picks something like the house map if this went to court.

What language exactly in what law makes the DeSantis map legally vulnerable in your opinion?  

The FDA as its a partisan gerrymander?

The cross the bay CD and the failure to have a nested CD in Duval do need an explanation that is other than a partisan one.

Duval is easy. St johns river

That seems the best fig leaf available, but inasmuch as the river is already crossed to take in a few precincts to equalize population, why except for partisan reasons was the alternative map not drawn as depicted below, that reduces the size of the Duval County chop, by taking in some more precincts across the river, including a few with a substantial black population?  You need talking points to make the job easier for the judges who want to help you but avoid undue embarrassment while doing it.

Yes it does seem DeSantis is atleast trying that instead of hoping his judges are shameless as Ohio.

[lfromnj]

I did two Republican gerrymanders of Florida a while back, using 2016 Senate Results (in Miami-Dade) and 2018 Gov. results (outside of South Florida) to simulate something close to 2020. It's obviously rather extreme, so I'm planning on drawing a "lite" version at some point.

Extreme Gerrymander

Moderate Gerrymander (except in South Florida)

I figured gaining an extra Latino seat in Miami-Dade meant that drawing an extra vote sink would be a good deal for the GOP--thus FL-28, which is safe D. The other Miami-Dade seats probably all voted Trump; FL-28 and FL-25 are Clinton-Trump seats which would be swingy, while Curbelo's seat is safe.

Did you know you can draw a another Republican seat in Broward/Palm Beach?

Ugh this sucks I need to absolve my sins

For the Jacksonville gerrymander its fairly obvious what to do if you want a clean one.
Just split it at the St.Johns river.

Your map is probably far too ugly for either one and would certainly result in a new redistricting amendment



For example this split is pretty reasonable and easily defendable and gives much better partisan numbers.

I also brought up the St.Johns split as the most defendable gerrymander of Duval 2 years ago !  People were trying way too much to find another way to crack Duval.

[lfromnj]

This is a huge stretch but might as well figure what the argument will be.
The justification for the 14th will likely be one of a district that covers nearly the entiriety of Tampa bay. The argument can be extended in that it takes those super R precicnts on SW Hillsborough so therefore it is not packing Democrats.

Infact it isn't really very efficient as a pack. One can draw a district entirely within Hillsborough  that is quite a bit more D from Biden +19 to Biden +23 and still be quite compact and definetely not a legal issue.  However it is still is important to note how efficient it is to take those precincts from St.Pete and make a Lean to Likely R instead of a Lean D seat while at the same time still being quite efficient in Hillsborough as the worst seat for R's is still Trump +5.

Also is a big stretch to claim to use the St.Johns river in Duval but then not follow the Tampa Bay shore.

[lfromnj]

https://rumble.com/v10zr1j-gov-desantis-20-8-map-four-new-republican-seats.html

By the way Sabatini is more or less dumb enough to leave an actual paper trail.

[lfromnj]

What the heck is the purpose of that eastern shore tail?

$10 says DeSantis got lazy/tired of dealing with Tampa precincts.

It's for the Tampa Bay "COI" + it improves " compactness" . Check the DRA compactness score. Its crazy high.

[lfromnj]

The new FL-14 looks like a compact fair district someone took a massive bite out of.

Actually DeSantis's Tampa config if you don't look at water looks quite similar to the original senate proposal funnily enough.

[lfromnj]

What the heck is the purpose of that eastern shore tail?

$10 says DeSantis got lazy/tired of dealing with Tampa precincts.

If you ignore the water, it makes the seat look pretty compact.

Yeah, I think it's about perception.  An average person just looking at this map will think it's one of the least gerrymandered maps in the country because it looks really clean and there aren't a lot of weird shapes.  Ohio's map is very similar in this regard- neither look like gerrymanders to the naked eye.  On the other hand, something like the 2010s Maryland map or original 2010s Pennsylvania map have a bunch of crazy snakes.  That gets average people to feel that it's more of a gerrymander.

It's actually the second most compact map in the nation , I excluded single and dual district maps from this. single obviously and dual because they have a lot of deviation for the average quite easily.


Ohio is not like that and nor did they try. It definetly is quite ugly and  in many areas. Taking Cincinatti to Warren County is disgusting.  The unusual thing about DeSantis's map is it really does not take any incumbent into account other than maybe shoring up Salazar a few points.

[lfromnj]

Probably good outcome aside, it is good to see an executive willing to threaten legislators with primary challengers. That is how this is supposed to work and presidents and governors have largely been too cowardly to do it since 1936. This boosts my confidence in DeSantis for 2024 or 2028.

Technically the senate president wasn't running for reelection but a statewide office. He felt like he needed some support just incase despite even having a Trump endorsement.

[lfromnj]

What the heck is the purpose of that eastern shore tail?

$10 says DeSantis got lazy/tired of dealing with Tampa precincts.

If you ignore the water, it makes the seat look pretty compact.

Yeah, I think it's about perception.  An average person just looking at this map will think it's one of the least gerrymandered maps in the country because it looks really clean and there aren't a lot of weird shapes.  Ohio's map is very similar in this regard- neither look like gerrymanders to the naked eye.  On the other hand, something like the 2010s Maryland map or original 2010s Pennsylvania map have a bunch of crazy snakes.  That gets average people to feel that it's more of a gerrymander.

It's actually the second most compact map in the nation , I excluded single and dual district maps from this. single obviously and dual because they have a lot of deviation for the average quite easily.


Ohio is not like that and nor did they try. It definetly is quite ugly and  in many areas. Taking Cincinatti to Warren County is disgusting.  The unusual thing about DeSantis's map is it really does not take any incumbent into account other than maybe shoring up Salazar a few points.

The thing is "compactness", while it may affect public perception, doesn't really make a map any more or less gerrymandered, especially in a state like Florida where you have incredibly dense communities next to swamplands where no one lives.

Furthermore, a lot of the actual gerrymanders that do exist (IL, NY, TX) could've been made far more compact but equally brutal, just visually looks nicer.

I would agree that this Florida map is a tier below IL or TX's gerrymander though because it's compact, and the GOP didn't go out of the way to create true max packs or have all 20 of their districts be safe or even likely R in a normal cycle.

I still don't get why DeSantis didn't dismantle 20 if he's really for compactness over minority representation. It would make South Florida look a lot nicer without really affecting partisanship, and FL-20 could still be minority functioning.

He seems to have copied the legislature's South Florida. This may have given them a way to save face? I agree its still a gerrymander but compactness is one of the items listed .It seems atleast DeSantis listened to this unlike the OH GOP.

[lfromnj]

https://miami.cbslocal.com/2022/04/18/florida-democrats-criticize-ron-desantis-congressional-redistricting-maps/

“The problem is we in Florida are governed by a GOP that has decided to just throw up its hands and give in to the bully. We did our job. We even gave him a, not we, let me be clear. The Republicans who control the legislature gave him a backup map just in case he didn’t like the constitutional one. And he still vetoed both of them. Because why? Once you give people like this an inch, they take more than a mile, said Rep. Joseph. “This is a, make no mistake about this. This is an attack, a full-frontal attack on the voting rights laws that we have established in this state, both at the federal level and at the state level,” she said.

It seems like Florida Democrats are now admitting the map they all chided as unconstitutional which was the house's 10-4-14 map, is now constitutional.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/jacobogles/status/1516439923083157514?cxt=HHwWlIC9qeu...

Wat

[lfromnj]

It still can't be understated how much the FL house may have screwed DeSantis over by drawing the Duval only seat. Dems for reason are still stuck on the snake seat but it was pretty clear there was an alternative option available.

[lfromnj]

What are the odds that the courts OK this?

Unclear

I could see the courts ok'ing everything but restoring the old FL-5 for a 19-9.

Nothing is likely going to happen for 2022 , restoring the old FL 5th is unlikely and Democrats will likely drop that once Al Lawson retires as there is no more need for such a district anymore.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/fineout/status/1516806598680883211

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/ron-desantis-targets-black-held-congressional-seats-party-rcna19771

“This is DeSantis’ M.O.: What he cares about, he cares about deeply. And if you get in his way, he’s going to roll through you,” said state Sen. Jeff Brandes, a Tampa Republican. “Members don’t know him and don’t know what he’s going to do. And that not knowing is part of the reason they fear him.”

Brandes said DeSantis is particularly tough for Florida Republicans to go up against because of his skyrocketing profile within the party.

“This whole session was a showcase for DeSantis — a trial balloon for a White House campaign — and nationally he’s a 600-pound gorilla with the possibility of becoming an 800-pound gorilla, especially if he gets his way with these maps,” Brandes said.

Party Line other than Annette Taddeo who boycotted the session. So it does include senator Brandes voting with the Rs.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/apantazi/status/1517123145567805441

[lfromnj]

https://lwvfl.org/league-of-women-voters-of-florida-and-others-sue-over-gov-desantis-congressional-map/
First lawsuit
Overall fairly poor. Complaints about CD26 now 28 being made unwinnable despite it being the exact same margin. Complains about Orlando in a partisan perspective without even bringing up my specific complaint regarding Deland.  Complains about splitting St.Pete but then asks for the senate map which also splits St.Pete(slightly)

Also decides to complain about compactness which is pointless. No judge is going to strike this map down on being uncompact.

[lfromnj]

Hopefully smarter people will take over later, but if this is struck down, I'm not expecting more than FL-5 being made into a duval only district

 I would assume the St.Pete -Tampa district being cancelled as well. Unlikely to see any "rescue" for Orlando Democrats. Wouldn't be impossible to see the Miami Gerrymander cancelled but the Democrats voted for it and are asking for the senate map.