Illinois Redistricting Megathread

[lfromnj]

LOL
https://capitolfax.com/2021/10/15/new-congressional-maps-released/

You can view this map as a series of messages to some Democrats and Democratic constituencies. For instance, the message to Newman seems to be: You have a choice between running against Kinzinger with relatively few Chicago precincts or you can represent a Latino district. I’m told Newman made huge demands and was generally uncooperative.

[lfromnj]

What an idiotic map. Between Texas Republicans and Illinois Democrats, I can't decide which state party is more incompetent at gerrymandering. Even if democrats hold all three competitive Chicagoland districts, they will have to spend quite a bit of resources to do so that otherwise would have been used in more competitive races nationwide. A decent number of Republicans would prefer this map over a 4 R sink map.

The TX GOP was not very aggressive and they probably could take the risk on going more aggressive with TX 15th. However their map is very effective at their packing and takes almost the correct precincts every single time in order to achieve its goal .The Illinois map as of now is sloppy in that regard.  I am specifically speaking about IL 17th which seems a bit weak and could be shored up by 2 points. There isn't even any incumbency demands to worry about here and they just took random areas that were redder for no reason.


However the Texas GOP did play much more as a team group. The TX 13th to Denton was one such example. Meanwhile of the Chicago Democrats the only ones who think any serious hits to their partisanship were  Bill Foster, Robin Kelly(Chair of the IL Democrats by the way), and Newman who as we know is extremely angry about the current map. Obviously IL democrats don't have to go as far but you would think double digit Biden for all 14 wouldn't be that crazy.

Krishnamoorti/Dold/Quigley/Schakowsky so far have not taken any major changes.

[lfromnj]

The IL Dems, on the other hand, are not especially threatened by partisan interests. In fact, they can go heavily on the offensive. The issue is their own incumbents and their parochial concerns. Everyone has demands, many of which conflict with each other, and the IL Dems are left trying to appease everyone. But that, in turn, appeased no one, and some reps whose demands were increasingly unreasonable (Newman) had to be shown what would happen if they decided to barely cooperate. Still, even if Newman changes her tune, it will still be incredibly difficult to give everyone what they want.

It'll be interesting to see how the IL Dems move on from here, but its clear that they have an extremely difficult task in front of them.

I don't their task to fixing this proposal is that difficult. If Newman is the issue, she needs to get it together and accept a tougher primary in exchange for a safe general election. Put the work in and you'll crush your primary challengers. Steve Cohen, a white Jew, holds the 66% black Memphis seat. He holds that seat because he's an extraordinary Member of Congress that serves his constituents well.

If Democrats cannot hold that downstate snake district at Biden+11, they have some serious troubles. IL-17 should be cleaned up a bit and that can easily be a double-digit Biden district without affecting any incumbents. Those in need of shoring up in Chicagoland are Casten, Underwood, and Newman. Schakowsky and Quigley can afford to give up a few points each. Kelly may also be able to sacrifice a bit, depending on how the VRA districts look (which I haven't looked at yet). There's absolutely no reason why there can't be 14 double-digit Biden districts.

Kelly gave up the most of any current incumbent FYI

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1449811279447740421

Bye Newman
Hello ramirez rosa

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/AveryTheComrade/status/1449814750452326401

Never mind (from the above Wasserman map)

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1450547182982123524?s=20

Surprised no one sued Oklahoma for doing the same.

[lfromnj]

Not sure if Amarillo to Denton is more crazy or Danville to Chicago.

[lfromnj]

By the way all of Macoupin being added to IL 13th?

Did Andy Manar ask Pritkzer to push for that? There's no other reason to add such a county that is quite red by now.

[lfromnj]

By the way all of Macoupin being added to IL 13th?

Did Andy Manar ask Pritkzer to push for that? There's no other reason to add such a county.

Maybe a desire to ensure every district outside the suburbs has at least 1 whole county. Macoupin used to have a decent D tint, and there are no other obvious candidates for a whole county while maintaining CD15's continuity. OTOH, if they went narrow, it would just be getting a different set of Trump precincts, just ones he won by less. I can only spot a handful of precincts outside CD13 Biden won that could reasonably be added, mainly in St. Clair.

That sounds like an unnecessarily contrived rule to explain a powerful Senator's home base being added to a district. The simpler explanation is more likely to be correct.

He isn't a senator anymore by the way but I assume he has some influence and there isn't any incumbent demands here either.

[lfromnj]

By the way all of Macoupin being added to IL 13th?

Did Andy Manar ask Pritkzer to push for that? There's no other reason to add such a county.

Maybe a desire to ensure every district outside the suburbs has at least 1 whole county. Macoupin used to have a decent D tint, and there are no other obvious candidates for a whole county while maintaining CD15's continuity. OTOH, if they went narrow, it would just be getting a different set of Trump precincts, just ones he won by less. I can only spot a handful of precincts outside CD13 Biden won that could reasonably be added, mainly in St. Clair.

That sounds like an unnecessarily contrived rule to explain a powerful Senator's home base being added to a district. The simpler explanation is more likely to be correct.

Except said Senator is no longer a Senator (with these maps drawn by the Leg), and his appointed successor got a reinforced senate seat in Springfield. He'd also be starting at a primary disadvantage simply based of Registered voter numbers compared to a Champaign-Urbana or East St. Louis candidate.

Yeah? What's he doing now? Why don't you google that and get back to me, and then we can talk about why the folks in Springfield — who are not dumb people — might have drawn the map the way they did. If you're looking for a hint, it has nothing to do with a nonexistent rule about counties.

Also the easiest whole county to add would have just been the rest of Piatt (between Decatur and Champaign). Maybe its possible they were just lazy here for some reason but its a possibility that Manar wants that seat.

[lfromnj]

https://chicago.suntimes.com/city-hall/2021/10/22/22740639/latino-caucus-ward-map-rekindles-black-hispanic-tensions

Chicago city wards has some interesting tension.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/brendenmoore13/status/1452097859835285510

Ok probably not. Seems weird to add 70% Trump territory then.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1453876391666241536

Haha, is it not abundantly obvious now that the machine is going after Newman? They must have heard our feedback that she could be favored over Casten in the previous draft, so they put her with a Hispanic incumbent in a district that contains Hispanic parts of Chicago.

It is probably just more apathy . Last in ,First out.

[lfromnj]

For the past month, hundreds of diverse community members from Chicago’s Southwest Side and suburbs have attended and overwhelmingly voiced their opinion at every single public input opportunity held by the Illinois General Assembly on the proposed congressional maps. Even after attending every single hearing in large numbers and delivering hundreds of testimonies, letters, calls and witness slips from voices in the district, the most recently proposed map is a clear attempt to appease one person and a small handful of affluent insiders at the expense of workers and working families on Chicago’s Southwest Side and suburbs. Illinois residents deserve fair representation and a fair map that includes public input — not one that turns a blind eye to it. This map undoubtedly does not live up to what Illinois residents deserve.

From Newman

LOL

[lfromnj]

Is Pritzker expected to sign those maps soon?

Perhaps he had a change of heart and remembered his 2018 campaign promise of #FairMaps.

Democrats would be idiotic to disarm themselves with the kinds of maps being passed in Ohio, North Carolina, Etc. This is why redistricting reform should be pushed bipartisanly.

He's obviously joking.

[lfromnj]

The fact that either a mid 50s white woman and a early 50s Irishman representing a mostly latino district would be ironically funny since they are both D's and that district is safe D

IL 6th is mostly white. IL 3rd is the new Latino district. 

[lfromnj]

Why has Pritzker still not signed it?  \

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/brendenmoore13/status/1463239314289086466

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/politicsmaps/status/1523986224133771264

Chicago finally did redistricting of the wards.