2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[lfromnj]

How many black democrats are in each chamber?

Southern black dems seem to be sticking to the party this time around but Michigan black dems are not happy about the Detroit splitting and Milwaukee Democrats strongly opposed Ever's commission maps for similar reasons.

[lfromnj]

TBH this map isn't bad outside of that western district.

-ridiculous amounts of arbitrary county splits, some of which make the portions of counties in certain seats non-contiguous

This map is a cerebral hemorrhage and a half any way you slice it.

Also for the last part, there are way too many county splits in SEPA, but I think for the other 11 districts there only seem to be 10 splits which is basically the bare minimum for population equality?

[lfromnj]

TBH this map isn't bad outside of that western district.

-ridiculous amounts of arbitrary county splits, some of which make the portions of counties in certain seats non-contiguous

This map is a cerebral hemorrhage and a half any way you slice it.

Also for the last part, there are way too many county splits in SEPA, but I think for the other 11 districts there only seem to be 10 splits which is basically the bare minimum for population equality?

The number of counties split is passable, but as I said they're done in ways where multiple non-contiguous pieces of counties are contained in the splits rather than single chunks–there are three separate pieces of Cumberland and two of Snyder in the 13th, two of Butler in the 17th, two of Monroe in the 7th. This is what makes it especially egregious in my view.

That's likely the focus on minimizing township splits. Not always my cup of tea but I do do it for example with my Lehigh district where mine is pretty similar with a "non contiguous" portion for the extra 12k needed from Monroe.

The Butler district is bad along with the Cumberland one but the Snyder/Monroe ones seem fine to me.


edit: The Monroe one takes a different town than I do, likely not to give Wild too red a district.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/4st8/status/1468804549439799301


Why can PA legislators just not draw a simple map?

Search up the 2011 PA senate Democratic proposal. Its so ugly it actually makes the GOP map look good.

[lfromnj]

That 17th actually made me burst out laughing. Incredible stuff. Obviously doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of passing, though, I'm pretty sure Republicans need 23 Democrats in the House and there are only 24 total in Philly. Even if they cleared that bar, it would be struck down by the Supreme Court in a heartbeat. Of course, it will not clear that bar. It will probably receive zero Democratic votes in the House and, at best, one in the Senate from Mr. Sharif Street.

Its Peak PA legislators being dumb for no purpose. Look at my fair map which achieves the exact same partisan outcome.

Anyway the map is pretty bad. although  surprisingly close to an actually fair map. Only differences is Scott Perry gets a 100% Safe district and Houlahan gets shored up.

edit: Never mind I found out why, its because Kelly lives in Butler in Butler County.

[lfromnj]

http://www.politicspa.com/dems-release-their-own-congressional-map/30151/

Found the source for the PA 2011 Democratic proposal


This is a work of art.

I think 10 counties were NOT SPLIT.

[lfromnj]

http://www.politicspa.com/dems-release-their-own-congressional-map/30151/

Found the source for the PA 2011 Democratic proposal


Jesus christ.

I think 10 counties were NOT SPLIT.

The district shapes are self-evidently hilarious, but the underlying assumptions regarding partisanship are equally risible in hindsight. Grouping Harrisburg and Reading in with the entirety of Schuylkill, combining even the parts of Chester that were safely Dem then with deep Amish country, using Delaware and parts of Philadelphia to "shore up" Montgomery, an incarnation of the 12th that makes Old Man Murtha's '00s seat look like an exemplar of clean lines and COI preservation–holy Diana, imagine what a clusterf-ck the rest of the decade would've been under this map!

Schuykill gets to stay whole because Tim Holden always landslided over there FYI.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1469024043760291853

https://mobile.twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1469012034104741889

Wasserman framing is a bit too aggressive. National dems may not support it but it does give Houlahan a better district than I think the court will do.
In exchange Rs get a few extra points into the Pittsburgh district and get to nuke Harrisburg

[lfromnj]

If PA Dems want to replace Boyle with Street, it's pretty easy to make both Philly districts Black influence without all the other ugliness (and honestly they should--pretty messed up currently to be honest).

Well that would mean outer Montco goes with Berks making a swing seat. It seems the main goal is more to protect Houlahan while giving up Lambs seat(which would sorta happen anyway in a fair map but with certain preferences from Mike Kelly.) However in exchange for those preferences they place Indiana college instead to keep it at the same partisan level.  After that Perry just gets to stay secure.

Also Fitz gets a marginally better district I guess but the shift is quite small.

[lfromnj]

If PA Dems want to replace Boyle with Street, it's pretty easy to make both Philly districts Black influence without all the other ugliness (and honestly they should--pretty messed up currently to be honest).

Well that would mean outer Montco goes with Berks making a swing seat. It seems the main goal is more to protect Houlahan while giving up Lambs seat(which would sorta happen anyway in a fair map but with certain preferences from Mike Kelly.) However in exchange for those preferences they place Indiana college instead to keep it at the same partisan level.  After that Perry just gets to stay secure.

Also Fitz gets a marginally better district I guess but the shift is quite small.

What would the 2020 Presidential numbers be for the Houlihan seat?

Probably only a few points right of the current seat.(Biden +17). Should still be safe for her unless it absolutely collapses. IMO the court map will do a lot for that Western PA seat and keep the Harrisburg York seat but I don't think the special master will go as far to do that tri chop of Berks to secure Houlahan. Along with that consider there is like 2 D state reps from that Harrisburg district and no state senators.

[lfromnj]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/a-draft-pa-congressional-map-could-boost-the-philly-democrat-helping-draw-it-e2-80-94-but-hurt-his-party/ar-AAREIPv?ocid=BingNewsSearch

Street criticized those in the party who want to split Pittsburgh to draw two safe Democratic seats. Street said that would lower the chances that a progressive like state Rep. Summer Lee — the first Black woman elected to the legislature from Western Pennsylvania who is now running for Congress — could win a congressional seat.

“Black women, we say, are the backbone of the Democratic Party,” Street said. But some Democrats, he said, “want me to make changes to a district in a way to disempower the most successful Black female politician in the history of Western Pennsylvania. They want me to disempower her.”

[lfromnj]

One thing I don't get is if you are willing to do a small 3rd chop of Alleghany after the 4 SWPA counties why not just do it where Reschentaler lives to place him in his own district?

[lfromnj]

If PA Dems want to replace Boyle with Street, it's pretty easy to make both Philly districts Black influence without all the other ugliness (and honestly they should--pretty messed up currently to be honest).

I think the Boyle with Street is probably more personal support which the GOP just goes along with because Street is the negotiator along with the fact it allows them to put East Philly with Bucks. East Philly is where Boyle lives FWIW. It's nothing major. The 2nd black seat would certainly mess up the entire delegation in SEPA.

[lfromnj]

I just don't think Susan Wild would accept this map. Maybe make PA-08 redder and 7 like Biden +9 or something. Then make Houlahan's a little redder but still solid D. That would make sense.

Cartwright has more seniority and has more state house reps backing him. Not sure what Yudichak prefers. He caucuses with the GOP in a pretty red presidential senate seat although he still endorsed Biden last year.

[lfromnj]

I just don't think Susan Wild would accept this map. Maybe make PA-08 redder and 7 like Biden +9 or something. Then make Houlahan's a little redder but still solid D. That would make sense.

Cartwright has more seniority and has more state house reps backing him. Not sure what Yudichak prefers. He caucuses with the GOP in a pretty red presidential senate seat although he still endorsed Biden last year.

I just don't think Susan Wild would accept this map. Maybe make PA-08 redder and 7 like Biden +9 or something. Then make Houlahan's a little redder but still solid D. That would make sense.

Cartwright has more seniority and has more state house reps backing him. Not sure what Yudichak prefers. He caucuses with the GOP in a pretty red presidential senate seat although he still endorsed Biden last year.

Well again they could take the most D areas from Pennsylvania 7 and 8 and have those two fight it out. Im not sure if there is a way to give Cartwright an advantage in that primary, but that's something I could see happening.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5a26f42a-b2b6-4505-a766-778e33816e76
Does this look like a possible arrangement in NE PA+Lehigh Valley?

I mean that's more or less what they did except switch Hamilton for Smithfield which has slightly lower deviation. Basically my guess is if there is a compromise map the GOP will allow Democrats to choose whichever for the 2 districts as one of them has to move right and the other stays stagnant.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1469079921066708995

lol

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1469118319752060929

Yeah some GOP reps really don't like the house map

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1470813556362948609

Cleaned up  R map which also makes PA06 more red. Not sure what the point of these antics are when all this does is antagonize Dems who might be interested in a compromise.

[lfromnj]

Wish there was a more Harrisburg centered district but not a bad map.

It's fairly easy to make a pretty Safe R Harrisburg district which would just mostly be Cumberland + Dauphin + Lebanon + 50k random pop. The issue however is Lancaster County is the base of the PA GOP and the house redistricting chair is from York. SCPA is basically 2 districts worth of pop so even without partisan implications Harrisburg would be the one to get chopped by any GOP map especially considering Perry is from York and Smucker is from Lancaster.

The most gerrymandered part is keeping the Lackawanna/Lehigh configuration where they make PA07 and PA08 both more red by having PA08 taking in random rurals before taking in the rest of the Wilkes Barres area.

Also they made PA06 more R but also more compact as I said earlier where even though it seemed that PA06 was a R gerrymander in Holton's map it was relatively D friendly.

[lfromnj]

Wish there was a more Harrisburg centered district but not a bad map.

It's fairly easy to make a pretty Safe R Harrisburg district which would just mostly be Cumberland + Dauphin + Lebanon + 50k random pop. The issue however is Lancaster County is the base of the PA GOP and the house redistricting chair is from York. SCPA is basically 2 districts worth of pop so even without partisan implications Harrisburg would be the one to get chopped by any GOP map especially considering Perry is from York and Smucker is from Lancaster.

The most gerrymandered part is keeping the Lackawanna/Lehigh configuration where they make PA07 and PA08 both more red by having PA08 taking in random rurals before taking in the rest of the Wilkes Barres area.

Also they made PA06 more R but also more compact as I said earlier where even though it seemed that PA06 was a R gerrymander in Holton's map it was relatively D friendly.

A thought: why couldn't  Harrisburg be paired with State College in a fair-fight district, while Smucker and Perry both get the sort of districts they want?

I was working on that but anyway a compromise map just nukes it or at least keeps it Trump +10 as its the last thing Dems will want. They only have 3 state reps in the entirety of the state college, Harrisburg and York area. No state senators either in the area so little push for it.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/GianniHillPA/status/1471534625659002883

Senate seems GOP favorable.
FWIW the current map has 25 Biden seats lol.
https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1471556922763624457
https://twitter.com/AveryTheComrade/status/1471585813783662595
House seems like a sorta Dem gerrymander. Dems went all in for Luzerne with 4 Trump but still downballot D seats.

[lfromnj]

Both seem way more neutral than what we have now, if I'm not mistaken. Though that's a low bar considering both right now are extreme GOP gerrymanders

I mean the  Republican PA state supreme court did block the initial proposals for excessive city/county splits.

Even then Biden actually has 25 seats on the current map compared to 24 on the new map

[lfromnj]

Also wondering about the legality of the Lackawanna/Luzerne senate districts. Not sure why it was drawn like that either. There is a double cross.

[lfromnj]

I take back what I said - the new House map seems very fair (102-101 Biden) but the new state senate map seems more trash than what I originally thought.

Realized that my home district in Montco, currently with Katie Muth (D) is going from 42-40 R edge to a 47-36 R edge which is ... an incredibly jarring change. Especially for a Montco district which continues to trend left (and my particular township does as well)

No clearly both are gerrymanders.

The house map splits up State college to give Dems 2 Safe districts there along with Lancaster for example. The state senate does similar stuff with Lancaster.

The house map then creates 4 "trump districts" in Luzerne in order to save the Dem incumbents there and spread out the Shapiro vote rather than creating 1 Biden seat in Wilkes Barres and spreading out the rest.

[lfromnj]

I take back what I said - the new House map seems very fair (102-101 Biden) but the new state senate map seems more trash than what I originally thought.

Realized that my home district in Montco, currently with Katie Muth (D) is going from 42-40 R edge to a 47-36 R edge which is ... an incredibly jarring change. Especially for a Montco district which continues to trend left (and my particular township does as well)

No clearly both are gerrymanders.

The house map splits up State college to give Dems 2 Safe districts there along with Lancaster for example. The state senate does similar stuff with Lancaster.

The house map then creates 4 "trump districts" in Luzerne in order to save the Dem incumbents there and spread out the Shapiro vote rather than creating 1 Biden seat in Wilkes Barres and spreading out the rest.

Is there currently a Biden won seat in Wilkes Barre?

Yes one Biden +4 seat