2020 New York Redistricting

[lfromnj]

It'd be funny if the State Supreme Court overturned the map purely because of NY-10, that's a pretty crazy snake.

Also NY-18 was only Clinton + 1 and NY-19 was Clinton + 2

NY-01 was Clinton + 5, NY-04 was Clinton + 9, and the rest of the seats were over Clinton + 10 (including NY-11 where Clinton overperformed Biden).

While seats like NY-18 certaintly aren't a sho-in in years like 2022, they're prolly seats Dems are losing if they're having bigger issues nationally. 18 seems very much to bet on educational trends as it basically takes in some of the most affluent white parts of central NY; it swung like 7 points left in 2020. Neighboring NY-17 on teh otherhand barely budged, but is already more Dem. This seats takes in places like Spring Valley where the long term trajectory is questionable at best for Dems, especially if the Jewish communities vote for GOP by like 100% margins again.

There is direct precedent for ny 10 in the current district.

[lfromnj]

I mean… isn’t this almost certainly overturned?

Or am I wrong

You’re wrong

EDIT: If this gets through the State Senate, then I give it about a 2/3 chance at worst of surviving the courts.  It will likely be due to hackery (although I disagree with Torie about hackish the map is, there's certainly no need to create an Orthodox Jewish seat and the map is less absurd than the original Republican map in Ohio.  Granted, low bar and all that; we're really just talking degrees of awful ).  That said, I'll never complain about an anti-Republican gerrymander's ugliness or brutality until national Republicans come out for a nationwide ban on gerrymandering.  It's like what Robin Williams said about having nuclear weapons: Until both have sides agree to give all of them up or it makes no sense for anyone to give any of them up.

Incidentally, Paul Tonko deserves a big shout out for being such a team player here.  Tonko and especially Morelle have strong enough ties to the New York legislature.  They could effectively draw their own districts and while Morelle only looked out for himself, Tonko clearly encouraged the legislature to unpack his district to help shore up Delgado.  Delgado is a very strong, hard-working incumbent, but he'd have been in real trouble in his old district.  

Reminds me of how IIRC McHenry lobbied NC Rs to put Asheville in his district in the 2010s redistricting to make NC-11 more R.  Even if it is in service of gerrymandering, I kinda respect folks like Tonko and McHenry for doing what they can to help out.

Regarding Delgado id say the biggest advantage of Tonko doing that is it basically just destroys the Syracuse district for Rs now. If Tonko didn't want to do that you probably switch the partisanship of the Syracuse district and Delgado by giving Delgado Ithaca.

[lfromnj]

Will SI secede if a Afro Latina DSA wins? You think they will put up with that?

It’s a congressional seat so they’d have to secede from the U.S.!

A more "modest proposal" is that it could "secede" from NY and become part of NJ, to which it is closer to anyway. I know all the uber nerds on the forum already know this, but Todt Hill on SI is the highest point on the coastal plain that runs from Florida to Montawk, aka the tidewater and back when the slave belt (with supposedly Long Island having the highest percentage of slaves anywhere circa 1700 or some such date). And decorating the top of that hill, is a set of perhaps the gaudiest gates in America.

Of course, all the parts of New Jersey nearest to Staten Island are Democratic voting as well-- that's not really a solution either, not to imply that this is a problem that should be solved.

2 bridges, Elizabeth would be used for the hispanic seat so you would probably take the Perth Amboy  bridge and probably stay north of the Raritan for Middlesex County. Pure tossup seat at +0 .

The other option is actually to split Staten Island(more defendable from a NJ staten island as there are 2 bridges.) And put the northern part in the hispanic seat and then draw the rest of Staten Island down to more of Middlesex.

Even if you went from the Elizabeth bridge it would be +3 Biden or so.

It can't be understated the importance of how not only how Democratic Park Slope is but also how high turnout it is compared to anywhere else nearby.

[lfromnj]

Will SI secede if a Afro Latina DSA wins? You think they will put up with that?

It’s a congressional seat so they’d have to secede from the U.S.!

A more "modest proposal" is that it could "secede" from NY and become part of NJ, to which it is closer to anyway. I know all the uber nerds on the forum already know this, but Todt Hill on SI is the highest point on the coastal plain that runs from Florida to Montawk, aka the tidewater and back when the slave belt (with supposedly Long Island having the highest percentage of slaves anywhere circa 1700 or some such date). And decorating the top of that hill, is a set of perhaps the gaudiest gates in America.

Of course, all the parts of New Jersey nearest to Staten Island are Democratic voting as well-- that's not really a solution either, not to imply that this is a problem that should be solved.

Perth Amboy and South Amboy have 60,000 people + 475,000 in Staten Island. You can then head down the GSP and pick up mildly Trumpy towns in Monmouth County.

Sayreville and old Bridge do the job.

[lfromnj]

By the way are the 2 r "sinks" in western NY that crazy ?
It mostly just seems like Morelle wanted absolute certainty so he took in Ontario and dropped conservative conservative  Rochester suburbs. If you reverse that one district just seems to be the southern tier and the other just seems to be various lakefront towns while keeping the Buffalo and Rochester metroes whole.

[lfromnj]

By the way are the 2 r "sinks" in western NY that crazy ?
It mostly just seems like Morelle wanted absolute certainty so he took in Ontario and dropped conservative conservative  Rochester suburbs. If you reverse that one district just seems to be the southern tier and the other just seems to be various lakefront towns while keeping the Buffalo and Rochester metroes whole.

Yes, that lakeshore district is a leftovers district, not a gerrymander.
It’s obvious to have a Buffalo, a Rochester, and a Syracuse + Ithaca district. Once you do that, you are going to have bits that don’t have enough people to make a full district.  

Right - the Upstate districts are actually quite natural west of Albany and basically fine beyond some cuteness around Rochester. The main gerrymandering Upstate is in the Hudson Valley, and even then it's pretty light. Compared to the 23-3 maps that many people were pushing that would have required pretty extreme districts Upstate, this is tame.

I mean there is the Albany split considering the metro is a perfect district .

[lfromnj]

There was also TX 6th in the 1990s from the Frostmander.

CA-22 also wins a prize because its from an indepdent commision touted by the media as the example of good fair commissions that America needs(I don't think the media will defend NY redistricting much)

NY 24th really isn't that bad. Just a leftover Lakeshore district after you draw moderately Dem favorable districts for Syracuse and Rochester.

I guess people just have a bit too much of an aversion to donut districts. Ny 24th isn't what I woul draw but I don't get how its the worst.

[lfromnj]

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/chuck-todd-confronts-top-democrat-on-partys-redistricting-you-dont-accept-that-youre-gerrymandering/

So you tell me how the House of Representatives that represents the population, one side wins the majority vote and loses seats. If the House doesn’t reflect the majority will, what the heck is it? So that tells you what kind of map we’re dealing with right now. So we can argue for fair districts and pick up Democratic seats because if the Republicans have gerrymandered it all to hell over the last couple of cycles.

lol wut

[lfromnj]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/56a14294-4422-45ef-a50f-e89e69f45b01
Thoughts on this non-partisan NY CD map I made?

I like it other than the Borough Park-other Jewish communities split. Ideally 18th and 10th would swap around with the 8th to create a solely South Brooklyn seat. Like this.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::52efeb58-18a3-465c-9f74-b98643bd5a32

Its not just orthodox Jews there its also other immigrant groups like recent Eastern European immigrants. Generally its still a seat that makes a decent amount of sense but it is important to note that Orthodox Jews are not the only group there. Sunset Park is definetely an oddball in the seat although it is basically the only remaining part of Brooklyn not in the Staten Island seat nor black or progressive whites so it is likely going to be an oddball anywhere. It is likely they would effectively control the seat for any policies they want. I also am not a huge fan of the Westchester to Albany exurban seat which Phil made.

[lfromnj]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/56a14294-4422-45ef-a50f-e89e69f45b01
Thoughts on this non-partisan NY CD map I made?

I like it other than the Borough Park-other Jewish communities split. Ideally there would be a solely South Brooklyn seat. Like this.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::52efeb58-18a3-465c-9f74-b98643bd5a32

Looking at that sort of arrangement gives me the thought that I should redraw the 11th and 9th to put Bensonhurst in the 9th while placing Sunset Park in the 11th.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/73e32e04-cbcd-472c-942f-6023fab6e208
Something like this.

Yeah I think that makes more sense. Sunset park is definetely the oddball in Brooklyn but that results in a more cohesive Southern Brooklyn seat

[lfromnj]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/56a14294-4422-45ef-a50f-e89e69f45b01
Thoughts on this non-partisan NY CD map I made?

I like it other than the Borough Park-other Jewish communities split. Ideally there would be a solely South Brooklyn seat. Like this.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::52efeb58-18a3-465c-9f74-b98643bd5a32

Looking at that sort of arrangement gives me the thought that I should redraw the 11th and 9th to put Bensonhurst in the 9th while placing Sunset Park in the 11th.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/73e32e04-cbcd-472c-942f-6023fab6e208
Something like this.

That makes sense, yeah.

I think your biggest problem is combining the UWS with Harlem, which leaves that seat plurality white. Not going to be acceptable. You have to pair white parts of Manhattan with Brooklyn to preserve that minority seat.

I doubt the courts would strike it down, honestly. Especially since the seat is still 60%+ non-White VAP and it can be pretty plausibly argued that Harlem and Brooklyn are disparate communities versus Harlem and the UWS.

I think he meant Manhattan has to be split into 3.

[lfromnj]

There are two issues that I have found with 26 seat NY fair maps, that you both brought up and I would like to see what the suggested answers are, both for diversity of opinion's sake and to see how others resolved them. These two issues make it very easy to gerry NY for the dems, but hard to make a sensible map I have found.

1) Upstate new York has to lose a CD. If you are gerrymandering, this is the 22nd or maybe even the 21st if you are doing something with the Clinton/St. Lawrence region. On a reasonable map, the seat most reasonably to be cut is the 19th. NYC is just pushing north - good if you are gerrymandering cause it can eat red turf - and upstate pushing south, exerting a squeeze. But how do you group that cut? Putting everything north of Ulster+Sullivan+Dutchess in a upstate block comes about 140k short of 8 seats. There is no easy remedy cause Ulster and Sullivan are best kept together, and both that grouping or Dutchess are both 250K+.

Looking at it a different way doesn't exactly help, cause everything north of Rockland+Westchester is about 140K overpopulated for 9 seats, and dropping Putnam still leaves it at over 40K overpopulated. A new allignment is needed.

2) There is an either-or relationship in Brooklyn+Queens. Given the necessary minority seats, the need to both prevent packing of each minority group AND prevent the dilution of other minority groups while you are preventing packing, some White regions must be used to as counterweights for the Brooklyn AA seats. There are two options: the South Brooklyn Jews+Eastern Europeans and the west Brooklyn Progressives. Given the seat count, whichever one you go for will not get a seat of its own. Whichever one is cut up will have pieces paired with Staten Island, pieces that slightly or not at all resemble the other part of the district.

What percebt of the black vote did Clarke win in 2018 anyway. Was it very strong or was it more like Lacy Clay vs Cori Bush ?

[lfromnj]

I mean if it comes up for a vote its obviously going to pass.

[lfromnj]

Charleston has its black population falling even further. There is literally no reason but partisanship to draw into Charleston. The black belt seat probably needs a tendril into Columbia if one wants a strictly safe seat but the SC map overall is a quite efficient gerrymander. Columbia does seem a bit more justifed for said tendril atleast because it does somewhat seem like a black belt city. The portion of SC06 in Charleston is only 45% black.

As I said earlier Augusta to Savanah seats are a gerrymander just like a Columbia to Charleston seat is.

3  Biden seats is probably what happens with a natural map. 2 Biden seats is what happens if one wants a Safe Black seat .


About Kentucky, its definetely a gerrymander although little partisan. Frankfort would probably reasonably seem it should go with Lexington on most maps from what I see but at the same time it isn't a required aspect. The Comer arm upto Frankfort is crazy however

[lfromnj]

Yeah IMO Arkansas is a fair map--it just so happens that the obvious way to draw the state also yields zero Democrats.

What? The map splits Little Rock into 3. It's relatively small as most of Pulaski is still in 1 seat but still a gerrymander. Are you speaking about the 2010 map?

[lfromnj]

Considering all the Republican judges in NC and OH (minus O'Connor) have ruled in favor of keeping the gerrymandered maps that were made in their states, I find it extremely difficult to believe the  Appeals Court in NY, with 7 dem judges, will strike down the maps the legislature made.

Stranger things have happened, but history isn't on the Republicans side for this.  They need to convince 4 of the 7 Democratic Judges to strike down a Democratic made map.  

Can you really believe if North Carolina or Ohio had 7 Republican Judges the Democrats would've had any chance in hell?  Probably not.

It's not going any different but NC is different from Ohio/NY. NC is very much streching a clause rather than more written criteria in Ohio/NY.

[lfromnj]

One thing I realized with NY is even if a map gets struck down I think Democrats can always revert to the arm twisting R commision proposal.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/JeffWice/status/1509598742483283982

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/GOPRedistrict/status/1509625321762570245

As to be expected, appeal in a few hours. and should be reversed by tomorow.

[lfromnj]

So what is the expected outcome here? Maps struck down today, but appealed and put back in place tomorrow?

More or less, Miniscule chance they aren't but Democrats already played the commission game well enough to just enact the GOP commission maps in the worst case scenario.

[lfromnj]

So what is the expected outcome here? Maps struck down today, but appealed and put back in place tomorrow?

More or less, Miniscule chance they aren't but Democrats already played the commission game well enough to just enact the GOP commission maps in the worst case scenario.

Basically I thought this was a possible goal of the FL GOP to get them to vote for the house maps but then it turns out Florida Democrats are just retarded and refused to support even the senate maps.

[lfromnj]

So what is the expected outcome here? Maps struck down today, but appealed and put back in place tomorrow?

More or less, Miniscule chance they aren't but Democrats already played the commission game well enough to just enact the GOP commission maps in the worst case scenario.

Basically I thought this was a possible goal of the FL GOP to get them to vote for the house maps but then it turns out Florida Democrats are just retarded and refused to support even the senate maps.

No it's just the state house dems that are stupid right?

Yeah its just them that are doing that. Actual insanity .

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/npfandos/status/1512491648751710210

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/npfandos/status/1512496781388570634

[lfromnj]

Note the original judge also struck down the senate and assembly maps on procedural grounds. The original lawsuit only went against the senate maps but the judge actually ruled that he didn't believe they were a gerrymander.

However the appellate judge is saying its very likely the procedure was fine and is only letting congressional maps go ahead under the partial stay. So overall this ruling keeps the GOP slightly alive regarding the congressional maps at the forementioned miniscule but the state senate maps are now effectively final.