2020 New York Redistricting

[lfromnj]

Yeah the thing is about Williamsburg , is that literally nobody besides AOC who is all the way in the Bronx actually wants those Crane Husband progressives so you might as well dump him with Staten Island.

Is it possible to dump most of Williamsburg in NY-11?

Probably not as far as there, mostly to Dumbo. Nadler and Maloney still need to expand out so Manhattan can keep 3 districts.  But the point stands, just let these annoying progressive primary voters have a district where they control the dem primary rather than keep giving scares to everyone.

I dunno if Maloney wants her seat to expand even more outside Manhattan. If anything, any further movement outside of Manhattan could sink her in a future primary.
She needs more of Manhattan, not less.

I didn't mean more of outside of Manhattan but if you draw it all the way to Williamsburg you block any expansion down South and East. Can really only go to Park Slope.

The other question is who to give the Orthodox to. Nadler can take some and I guess Jeffries can take the rest.

Ah, I see. Yeah, there are areas that are better for her and worse for her. I can see why Williamsburg would be a good addition in this context.

It's not really good its just Manhattan has the pop for 2.1 or 2.2 districts but it will get 3 . Such is the rule of NYC.

[lfromnj]

Wouldn't Cuomo 2018 numbers be effective enough to use to predict the likely Dem Floor for 2022 outside of Katko?

[lfromnj]

Wouldn't Cuomo 2018 numbers be effective enough to use to predict the likely Dem Floor for 2022 outside of Katko?

Upstate, prolly not quite the floor but like than bottom quartile, but tbf Cuomo did pretty well on long Island.

Upstate is weird in the sense that districts like NY-24, 22, and 18 all saw dramatic ticket-splitting in 2020 election. However, dramatic ticket splitting in both directions making it kinda tricky to gauge things. I think Biden + 12 seats should be enough to hold in most if not all years this decade, and anything over Biden + 20 should be relatively safe.

Well yes I obviously meant Cuomo 2018 anything north of Rockland. No way are Democrats winning Staten Island or Suffolk County.

[lfromnj]

Wouldn't Cuomo 2018 numbers be effective enough to use to predict the likely Dem Floor for 2022 outside of Katko?

Upstate, prolly not quite the floor but like than bottom quartile, but tbf Cuomo did pretty well on long Island.

Upstate is weird in the sense that districts like NY-24, 22, and 18 all saw dramatic ticket-splitting in 2020 election. However, dramatic ticket splitting in both directions making it kinda tricky to gauge things. I think Biden + 12 seats should be enough to hold in most if not all years this decade, and anything over Biden + 20 should be relatively safe.

Well yes I obviously meant Cuomo 2018 anything north of Rockland. No way are Democrats winning Staten Island or Suffolk County.

Richmond County would probably be a heavy lift.

Suffolk county Biden only barely lost though; I would say Dems have a decent shot at winning the county on the Pres level again at some point (though Rs are still favored)

I meant for 2022.

[lfromnj]

Surprised by the Manhattan Staten island push. Always thought they would always have it take in Brooklyn Progs.

[lfromnj]

Surprised by the Manhattan Staten island push. Always thought they would always have it take in Brooklyn Progs.

"Who needs road continuity when there's the Staten Island ferry?" - whoever came up with that idea.

Yeah but someone has to take in those progressives now.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/_rebeccaclewis/status/1486820544628596741

[lfromnj]

I never saw why it would need to go into Manhattan. Maloney's proposal was probably meant to get Rose into congress. There would be a very left wing Brooklyn portion and then also a portion in Manhattan but Staten Island Democrats could still have the primary. Issue is there still are a few progressive leftovers and no one else wants those until you reach AOC who is too far away. The simplest solution is to give the Crane Husbands of NYC their seat by attaching them to Staten Island.

[lfromnj]

I never saw why it would need to go into Manhattan. Maloney's proposal was probably meant to get Rose into congress. There would be a very left wing Brooklyn portion and then also a portion in Manhattan but Staten Island Democrats could still have the primary. Issue is there still are a few progressive leftovers and no one else wants those until you reach AOC who is too far away. The simplest solution is to give the Crane Husbands of NYC their seat by attaching them to Staten Island.

AOC is not too far away. Have you never looked at how NYC districts snake all over the place for no logical reason? AOCs district could easily be made to snake down from Astoria or wherever to pick up significant progressive parts of Brooklyn. That would not make for a logical or compact district of course, but NYC districts have never really been compact or logical.

You are, however, right that it would probably be more logical to simply put the progressive areas with Staten Island, and it is surprising that they are apparently not going to do so. Your supposition that it may be intended to help Rose makes sense.

AOC lives in the Bronx. Her district is not going to stretch all the way down to Park Slope.

AOC's base is in Astoria, not so much the Bronx, and that is more material than where she happens to live.

You are right that her district probably would not stretch all the way down to Park Slope (although it could), because there are simpler and easier ways to pack more Progressives into AOC's district, so as to protect other traditional politicians from progressive primary challenges. For example, give her territory that is closer to Astoria like in Greenpoint and Williamsburg, areas that no establishment politician really wants to represent and which are currently in other districts like Carolyn Maloney's and Nydia Velazquez's. Then you have those other districts which are closer to Park Slope such as Maloney's and Velazquez's crack the progressive vote down there.

So yeah rather than streching that district like that, why not just give the progs to Staten Island where they can get their own district when as long as they don't nominate a complete loon they should win everytime. And that was the solution that is being proposed by the legislature atleast according to rumors.

[lfromnj]

So yeah rather than streching that district like that, why not just give the progs to Staten Island where they can get their own district when as long as they don't nominate a complete loon they should win everytime. And that was the solution that is being proposed by the legislature atleast according to rumors.

I agree that is more logical, it is just not what that memo which was posted a page or two back in this thread is talking about, with having Staten Island combined with part of Manhattan, that's all.

That was the SPM memo which didn't make much sense.

[lfromnj]

Is there anything that even shows national Republicans are doing anything at all to influence redistricting this time around?

[lfromnj]

I mean Maloney's  proposal is just whack, NY03 going from Long island into Westchester and the Staten Island stuff going into Manhattan. Neither make much sense.

[lfromnj]

What's wrong with Staten Island into Manhattan? There's both historical precedent and a heavily used ferry.

Because drawing Staten Island to Brooklyn gives those annoying Crane Husbands of NYC their seat. Drawing to Manhattan doesn't do the same as neither Nadler nor Maloney will take Staten Island and now Maloney is further pushed out of Manhattan. Nadler is needed to take the Orthodox Jews anyway.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mahoneyw/status/1487880774187507714

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Shvm_07/status/1487891073607389186?cxt=HHwWhMC-rYvDhqYpAAAA

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/WhaleBallot/status/1487892515395018753

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/EvanPerc_/status/1487901460050362374

NY-19 is definitely vulnerable with a candidate as good as Molinaro. NY-17 is worth watching with the rapid growth of the Orthodox Jewish population.

Jones has good relation with the Orthodox Jews and the local GOP doesn't have the best relation.

[lfromnj]

Long island risk depends how much NY05 takes from Nassau. Does it just take the Black Queens "spillover" or does it go further and take whites from Nassau as well thus allowing NY03 to take more dem areas  in the city while also taking more red parts of Long island. The portions of the Bronx and Queens that connect Westchester aren't very Democratic however.




For example if we just remove the AA spillover parts in Nassau and just draw into Westchester and also draw a Biden +0 seat in East Long Island we get 3 districts of Biden +6.5. This is definetely dummymander territory.

[lfromnj]

Jones has good relation with the Orthodox Jews and the local GOP doesn't have the best relation.

Didn't Rockland GOP literally run antisemitic ads scaremongering about the Hasidic community 'taking over the county? Clearly their growth will doom the Democrats in this seat.

They somewhat have a better relationshp now. I think the Orthodox Jews did vote for the GOP in 2021.

[lfromnj]

Big yikes for them if this is true:
https://twitter.com/decunningham2/status/1487905503267246082?cxt=HHwWhMC-2YCLjaY...

If I read right they put Nassau and The Bronx in one, so never say never

It mostly depends what portion of Nassau Ny05 takes. If it takes areas like Garden city as well it's probably worth it.

The portion of the Bronx they put may only be like 60 -40.

[lfromnj]

Can someone just make it simple: What’s the breakdown? 23-3?

Pretty secure 22 4

[lfromnj]

By the way anyone have the numbers for ny06?
Safe D for 2022 but worth just keeping a watch on for the future .

[lfromnj]

Sure, but screwing an ethnic group like that because they tend to oppose you, looks really bad, at least to me.

It seems like many things in New York's redistricting look really bad to you, above and beyond events in the other 49 states, tbh.

TX was bad, Illinois was bad, but in those states there is nothing but the VRA to constrain the gerrymanderers. What makes NYS uniquely terrible is that by referendum a provision was added to the NYS Constitution, and the Dems are putting it on ignore, apparently confident that the high court is that hackish. That is one way to make governance the rule of "men" rather than law. In any event, that is the source of my dyspepsia. In Ohio and Florida the Pubs made a reasonable  effort to follow the law (which has similar provisions), coming up a bit short in Ohio, and looked bad with Hamilton County, but NYS is in a class by itself.

Except in OH they only followed the objective criteria and still tried to make as R friendly of a map as possible. NY literally has no quantifiable criteria.

Not really but they did have other stuff to worry about including the court and a ballot measure.
There was the Dayton seat . Akron also could have been drawn into a Trump seat with Canton. Infact Democrats even propose that except they want to keep Summit instead of Stark whole.

I think I've finally made a map that I'm content with. 15 county splits apart from multi-county cities and very compact. It also keeps all major metro areas, Akron-Canton, Cleveland/Columbus/Cincinnati's suburbs, Amish communities, minority communities (two majority-minority seats) and most of Appalachian Ohio respectively together.

In addition to the COIs kept that I tried to maximize, it would fit the court's demand for partisan fairness pretty well: it goes 9-6 for Trump in 2016 and 2020. Any Democrat that wins the state carries a majority of districts; Obama would have won 8/15, and Dems won 7/15 in both their narrow GOV/AG losses in 2018, with the 8th seat being within a couple points of winning. Brown would have won 10/15

Just take this map that cv party and remove that arm into Eastern Cleveland suburbs like shaker heights.

Hamilton wasn't maximized but very much still a very aggressive gerrymander.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1487932813055823873?cxt=HHwWgsC4vd...

Basically brooklyn progressive whites and then mixed ideological minorities and lastly moderate Dems in Staten island

[lfromnj]

Lowkey Dems are kinda lucky NYC has so many R enclaves; the NYC districts aren't really "overppacked" like SF Bay or PA-03

From a gerrymander perspective you mean right ?
NYC is around 11 seats but a fair map would have 1 likely r in Staten Island and 1 swingy south Brooklyn seat. Easy to nuke in a gerrymander but Ra have pretty decent geography considering the city is 75% D
NY Rs mostly have the worst geography in the Hudson Valley  atleast by Biden numbers.

For example in LA county it voted 71% Biden yet the only possible Republican seats are a Biden +12 seat in the north of the county and a very small portion of SE LA county near Orange County going to the Asian seat in OC.

The Bay area actually voted pretty similar to NYC(if you include Stockton/San Joaquin which IIRC had a lot of growth due to people who can't find any other housing) with a similar # of districts . Yet NYC R's can pretty reasonably have 2 Trump seats along with an eye open on the Asian district. Yet the only "winnable" R seat in the bay area here would be the San Joaquin seat which is Biden +15 or just a few points more R than the Asian seat. Having pretty close to proportional representation in such a disproportional area is actually a square deal for the GOP

NY  dems relatively make up for their geographical disadvantage here due to immigrants not being voters. Overall if you do by the double rule Biden would be expected to win 73% of seats or exactly 19. A fair map has 2 LI Trump seats, 1-2 in Southern NYC. 4 in upstate NY as Tenney's seat is cut but Delgado's moves to being a narrow Trump seat. So biden wins 18/26