2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[lfromnj]

At the way things are going, It is pretty easy to make an 8-3 gerrymander of Virginia right now. They could shove the 3 republican seats on the westernmost parts of the state and and divide the 8 democratic seats this way: 3 in the NoVa, and 1 with a portion of NoVa with the tidewater region. 2 in the hampton roads area and 1 each for Richmond and Albemarle/Charlottesville area.

They could have quite easily, but the redistricting commision makes that impossible now, the best is a 5-3-3 map(tossups being VA beach and a 4th NOVA+Exurban district and the richmond white suburban)

Can't Northam veto the bill?

Its a constitutional amendment and I am actually making an assumption that it passes on the ballot this year..

[lfromnj]

If the Commission fails to submit a plan for districts by the deadline set forth in subsection (d), the Commission shall have fourteen days following its initial failure to submit a plan to the General Assembly. If the Commission fails to submit a plan for districts to the General Assembly by this deadline, the districts shall be established by the Supreme Court of Virginia.

So kept on reading this amendment,
https://ballotpedia.org/Virginia_Redistricting_Commission_Amendment_(2020)

We do know the Virginia Supreme court is almost all republican just like the NC court is all democrat so I would expect a similarly partisan decision as their reappointment depends on a GOP general assembly.
Anyway by this point Im pretty sure what will happen in 2021/2022
All commisioners chosen,
GOP commisioners deadlock on any map that isn't their preferred map which they show too.
Therefore no map goes to the assembly to vote on so it goes directly to the Virginia Supreme court where they just say the GOP map looks clean enough and they pick that.

[lfromnj]

If the Commission fails to submit a plan for districts by the deadline set forth in subsection (d), the Commission shall have fourteen days following its initial failure to submit a plan to the General Assembly. If the Commission fails to submit a plan for districts to the General Assembly by this deadline, the districts shall be established by the Supreme Court of Virginia.

So kept on reading this amendment,
https://ballotpedia.org/Virginia_Redistricting_Commission_Amendment_(2020)

We do know the Virginia Supreme court is almost all republican just like the NC court is all democrat so I would expect a similarly partisan decision as their reappointment depends on a GOP general assembly.
Anyway by this point Im pretty sure what will happen in 2021/2022
All commisioners chosen,
GOP commisioners deadlock on any map that isn't their preferred map which they show too.
Therefore no map goes to the assembly to vote on so it goes directly to the Virginia Supreme court where they just say the GOP map looks clean enough and they pick that.

I don't think this is likely at all. The VA supreme court won't choose between two maps, they will appoint someone to draw the maps.

They dont have to appoint someone,they can make up random constitutional bs just like nc ds did last year.

[lfromnj]

Ok so the commission includes both legislators and citizens,however if the legislators manage to exert more influence and get a "compromise" bipartisan gerrymander then we could get something like this. The GOP may not be totally willing to give up a VA beach district for a locked in 7-4 so lets make a 6-1-4.



Black circles = incumbent homes
VA 1: Robb Wittman won't be the happiest here as I did take a bit of the tidewater away(will explain later) and because of NOVA's growth the district moves a bit left to where Kaine won it by 2.5 points in 2018 I could make it a bit uglier I guess to shore him up. I think I could shore up Wittman by switching some precincts between him and Connolly but still NOVA growth basically forced Wittman into here.
Lets go with Likely R here.

So pushed VA 2nd to the left with some precinct shifts etc but its mostly the same, also kept the entire Historic Triangle together so this makes VA 2nd quite a bit whiter but without affecting its partisanship. Trump +1, Tossup.

VA 3rd- Black Hampton Roads district Safe D and kept Newport News, moves 2 points right but still Clinton +25.

VA 4- ok still keeps a similar black population but its also a bit more red at only Clinton +16, so blacks should dominate the primary more and Mceachin shouldn't have too much of a problem with this as its still Safe D. Other problem is not sure if Donald Mcceachin's home is in the district as I split Richmond could probably take it back if neccesary but he probably doesn't want white liberals in Richmond anyway.


VA 5.This along with VA 6,7 were what caused the rotation in the map. Riggleman lives very close to Cline's hometown but Spanberger needs Charlottesville to be shored up. So I removed the northern part of Rigglemans district which went to Wittman and Charlottesville to Spanberger. This is now 100% Safe R with Stewart winning it by 16 points. Rigglemans at a moderate risk of a primary here to a Richmond Republican but he probably doesn't have too many allies in the legislature but he should still be relatively solid.

VA 6- again the Shenandoah and moved North a bit into parts of VA 10th, Safe R  sink
 +31 Clinton

VA 7th- Spanberger needs Charlottesville to be truly safe in a general. Also took in some white lib precints in Richmond so its now Clinton +10, Safe D but could move to Likely D if its an R wave and Spanberger gets primaried by a Charlottesville loon along with the white libs in Richmond.

VA 8th- Titanium D sink Fairfax and Arlington, Beyers district is the same

VA 9th- Titanium R SW VA sink,ok actually moved like 10 points left because I wanted to keep Roanake whole which is a good COI anyway and Griffith lives there so he's happy. Stewart didn't even break 60% here suprisingly but still as said before Titanium R, its Trump +35.

VA 10th-Wexton is now 100% Safe in a general as she gets minorities in PWC, their split coalition makes it hard for them to primary Wexton anyway, Titanium D.

VA 11th- Safe D outer Fairfax, moves a bit right but unlike 10 years ago its impossible for any Republican to get elected in this area. Gerry should be happy.

Opinions?

[lfromnj]

I'm not quite sure what you are doing with VA04, but I'm also getting the feeling that a 6-4 incumbent protection map is going to be hoisted up by the partisans that is clean enough for the retired judges/citizens. It'll be a map that benefits the GOP for the decade in NOVA since the dems will be packed and cracked into 3 safe seats, but it will benefit the dems in Richmond since Spanberger would get a Safe seat. I say 6-4 since geography kinda leaves VA02 with not much wiggle room, so the partisans will probably find a way that the district ends up as a 'fair fight' based on whatever metrics are best in 2021.

I had to move VA 4 into the tidewater region a bit because otherwise theres no other real way to give Spanberger a line to Albemarle without blocking both Cline and Riggleman from getting going north which means Riggleman has to move East which pushes VA 4 north into the Tidewater which has a few rural blacks in it.


Its either that or making a split of the Shenandoah which would look really ugly.

But yes its a help to the GOP in NOVA in exchange for shoring up Spanberger(as 2 D Nova districts  are impossible) while just slightly tipping the scale in VA 2 a bit more to the D's but still tilting ever so slightly R although Trends should be much better for Luria along with a better turnout base.

[lfromnj]

Here's what I did when I tried the 6-4-1 deal last week - there's still ways to get Riggleman and Cline to remain seperate yet distinct from each other while spanberger also gets a safe seat. Obviously VA02's lines would be subject to whatever adjustments are needed to preserve partisan equity, but I'm fairly sure Williamsburg will need to be in there to ensure VA01 remains safe GOP for all 10 years, even with NOVA growth.

I did say there were legislators but also citizens who may not be inclined to excessively do a bipartisan gerrymander especially if it did look a bit dirty, albeit your VA 5 to 7 does work . Id probably just have Spanberger expand into Chesterfield while losing the arm to Harrisonburg(she would probably prefer it anyway, not wanting a whole 200k of her citizens to come from liberal college towns) while still remaining pretty Safe as double digit Clinton is safe for someone like Spanberger, but I think yes a 6-4-1 seems like a median outcome if the commission doesn't deadlock. If they can agree about the first 10 districts then it will probably just be bickering about how D VA 2 should be. Im pretty sure VA 1 could take in Williamsburg there, its still would be Trump +15-16 and still has the tidewater area which has a lot of ancestrally D whites who are trending R. Btw your map is with 2016 populations as our VA 9ths look quite different?

[lfromnj]

Anyway I think it may have been somewhat smart to just accept the independent commission for the Democrats, they couldn't really gerrymander anyway because the VA GOP controlled the state supreme court and as we saw in NC there really doesn't have to be a constitutional basis to oppose gerrymandering, its just it hurts my party so it should be stopped. In that scenario its possible that the court would have just made my 5-6 map with a little bit more fair fight in VA 2.

[lfromnj]

Ok so the commission includes both legislators and citizens,however if the legislators manage to exert more influence and get a "compromise" bipartisan gerrymander then we could get something like this. The GOP may not be totally willing to give up a VA beach district for a locked in 7-4 so lets make a 6-1-4.



Black circles = incumbent homes
VA 1: Robb Wittman won't be the happiest here as I did take a bit of the tidewater away(will explain later) and because of NOVA's growth the district moves a bit left to where Kaine won it by 2.5 points in 2018 I could make it a bit uglier I guess to shore him up. I think I could shore up Wittman by switching some precincts between him and Connolly but still NOVA growth basically forced Wittman into here.
Lets go with Likely R here.

So pushed VA 2nd to the left with some precinct shifts etc but its mostly the same, also kept the entire Historic Triangle together so this makes VA 2nd quite a bit whiter but without affecting its partisanship. Trump +1, Tossup.

VA 3rd- Black Hampton Roads district Safe D and kept Newport News, moves 2 points right but still Clinton +25.

VA 4- ok still keeps a similar black population but its also a bit more red at only Clinton +16, so blacks should dominate the primary more and Mceachin shouldn't have too much of a problem with this as its still Safe D. Other problem is not sure if Donald Mcceachin's home is in the district as I split Richmond could probably take it back if neccesary but he probably doesn't want white liberals in Richmond anyway.


VA 5.This along with VA 6,7 were what caused the rotation in the map. Riggleman lives very close to Cline's hometown but Spanberger needs Charlottesville to be shored up. So I removed the northern part of Rigglemans district which went to Wittman and Charlottesville to Spanberger. This is now 100% Safe R with Stewart winning it by 16 points. Rigglemans at a moderate risk of a primary here to a Richmond Republican but he probably doesn't have too many allies in the legislature but he should still be relatively solid.

VA 6- again the Shenandoah and moved North a bit into parts of VA 10th, Safe R  sink
 +31 Clinton

VA 7th- Spanberger needs Charlottesville to be truly safe in a general. Also took in some white lib precints in Richmond so its now Clinton +10, Safe D but could move to Likely D if its an R wave and Spanberger gets primaried by a Charlottesville loon along with the white libs in Richmond.

VA 8th- Titanium D sink Fairfax and Arlington, Beyers district is the same

VA 9th- Titanium R SW VA sink,ok actually moved like 10 points left because I wanted to keep Roanake whole which is a good COI anyway and Griffith lives there so he's happy. Stewart didn't even break 60% here suprisingly but still as said before Titanium R, its Trump +35.

VA 10th-Wexton is now 100% Safe in a general as she gets minorities in PWC, their split coalition makes it hard for them to primary Wexton anyway, Titanium D.

VA 11th- Safe D outer Fairfax, moves a bit right but unlike 10 years ago its impossible for any Republican to get elected in this area. Gerry should be happy.

Opinions?

I'm happy with this, especially given the fact these congressional districts are mostly contiguous.  Just one minor detail -for VA 6, I presume you meant +31 Trump?

Double mistype closer to +32 or +33 but yeah for Trump, doesn't really matter as its still Safe R

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/carterforva/status/1258080825532448768

Looks like Democrats may start a statewide campaign to beat it, its gonna be tough though if one assumes most Republicans vote for it then they have to sweep almost all D leaning voters.
Quote from Tom Gilbert

This past session we saw something really remarkable happen where a few House Democrats voted to approve a constitutional amendment ballot question, which will allow for non-partisan redistricting going forward. And you know, that type of scenario really leaves open any number of possibilities, and we certainly don’t know what the future holds, but Virginia has to reshuffle the deck here in a few years or in a year, and with our census and our redistricting and the drawing of new maps, so it’s very possible that that…if we play our cards right – which has not been something we have always done – we could position ourselves to be back in charge of the House.”

He just said new maps could give fairer chances.

I guess we should assume the commission will still pass but it won't be a certainity.

[lfromnj]

Anyway know a map the GOP could flip the state senate map with a GOP leaning gerrymander from a court?
First things first, make district 21 Safe for the GOP by removing VA tech(this is actually a fair move and not a gerrymander)

How can they get the 21st seat ? Can't take another seat from NOVA obviously as those seats will have to shrink
so the remaining 9 D seats are
1 Charlottesville
3 Richmond(2 black Safe D and 1 Clinton +12 white seat but also another Clinton +2 seat thats R held that they have to shore up)
5 D hampton roads and 1 R held Clinton +0 seat. All 5 are very Safe D. I guess the best bet is to split Charlottesville? Gonna be a hard push for a court to split it but is the easiest to take care of as there would be no other GOP seat at risk.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/kkrz1211/status/1259647825371111425

Krazen's masterpiece of a map.

Krazen's losing his touch - there's some red precincts inside his VA03, VA04, and NOVA packs that could easily be swapped for nearby blue ones.

His map is cleaner than yours tbf and both va 7 and va 2 are redder.
However I did warn him about the water usage.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/kkrz1211/status/1259647825371111425

Krazen's masterpiece of a map.

Krazen's losing his touch - there's some red precincts inside his VA03, VA04, and NOVA packs that could easily be swapped for nearby blue ones.

His map is cleaner than yours tbf and both va 7 and va 2 are redder.
However I did warn him about the water usage.

That's because I didn't draw a GOP gerry LOL. This is my 7-5 GOP gerry:



VA01: 56/38 Trump, R+10
VA02: 53/41 Trump, R+7.15
VA05: 56.5/38 trump, R+10.2
VA06: 60/34 Trump, R+13.8
VA07: 56/38 Trump, R+11.6
VA09: 62.5/33 Trump, R+14.4

Like I said, losing his touch.

He wanted it to be clean as possible for a court map
https://mobile.twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1258427751830302722
Was talking about this map.
The gop could very easily push Krazens map to the Suprmee court and they might just auto pick it. I mean literally anyone would call your map a gerrymander but krazen's is really clean outside of NOVA 10.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/kkrz1211/status/1259647825371111425

Krazen's masterpiece of a map.

Krazen's losing his touch - there's some red precincts inside his VA03, VA04, and NOVA packs that could easily be swapped for nearby blue ones.

His map is cleaner than yours tbf and both va 7 and va 2 are redder.
However I did warn him about the water usage.

That's because I didn't draw a GOP gerry LOL. This is my 7-5 GOP gerry:



VA01: 56/38 Trump, R+10
VA02: 53/41 Trump, R+7.15
VA05: 56.5/38 trump, R+10.2
VA06: 60/34 Trump, R+13.8
VA07: 56/38 Trump, R+11.6
VA09: 62.5/33 Trump, R+14.4

Like I said, losing his touch.

He wanted it to be clean as possible for a court map
https://mobile.twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1258427751830302722
Was talking about this map.
The gop could very easily push Krazens map to the Suprmee court and they might just auto pick it.

Could the Dem legislature impeach the Supreme Court justices for picking a map like this?

No for either map, you would need 2/3 of the vote I assume. PA GOP considered doing it as they had a majority in the state house and a super-majority in the state senate which is what was required but that was not gonna work as it would just result in Democrats reelecting the same justices and more anger at the GOP. Oryxslayers map goes a bit too ugly, the goal is to pass a map that is clean to the public eye but still a blatant gerrymander.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/kkrz1211/status/1259647825371111425

Krazen's masterpiece of a map.

Krazen's losing his touch - there's some red precincts inside his VA03, VA04, and NOVA packs that could easily be swapped for nearby blue ones.

His map is cleaner than yours tbf and both va 7 and va 2 are redder.
However I did warn him about the water usage.

That's because I didn't draw a GOP gerry LOL. This is my 7-5 GOP gerry:



VA01: 56/38 Trump, R+10
VA02: 53/41 Trump, R+7.15
VA05: 56.5/38 trump, R+10.2
VA06: 60/34 Trump, R+13.8
VA07: 56/38 Trump, R+11.6
VA09: 62.5/33 Trump, R+14.4

Like I said, losing his touch.

He wanted it to be clean as possible for a court map
https://mobile.twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1258427751830302722
Was talking about this map.
The gop could very easily push Krazens map to the Suprmee court and they might just auto pick it.

Could the Dem legislature impeach the Supreme Court justices for picking a map like this?

No for either map, you would need 2/3 of the vote I assume. PA GOP considered doing it as they had a majority in the state house and a super-majority in the state senate which is what was required but that was not gonna work as it would just result in Democrats reelecting the same justices and more anger at the GOP. Oryxslayers map goes a bit too ugly, the goal is to pass a map that is clean to the public eye but still a blatant gerrymander.

Can’t they just strike it down and do a complete redraw once the VA SC inevitably flips?

Takes till 2028 IIRc or even 2030. Also Rs can try to gerrymander the legislature  and hope for a GOp governor down the line to replace the old justices.
I guess coz charlottesville is already split they take that seat for the state senate and then make a fair district for roanake.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/kkrz1211/status/1259647825371111425

Krazen's masterpiece of a map.

Obviously I can't match the exact precincts, but I'm quite sure that VA-4 is only around 39% AA.  Putting all the white Richmond suburbs in the district lowers the black percentage quite a bit.

VA Dems can just make a superior AA seat and win in the courts with that map.   Visual aesthetics isn't the only thing they look at.  



The VA-5 in that map is also only 31% AA.   It's an obvious pack and crack.

Which courts?
The Old VA03 was a blatantly ugly map which clearly packed blacks, VA 04 is a clear compact COI to the Gingles test and would still very likely elect the black groups choice. There is 0 chance Scotus strikes down that VA04.
 You can't say that VA 4 doesn't have enough blacks but then say VA 5 is too cracked.

[lfromnj]

Put Lyncbhurg in the 6th district, its pretty swing and then remove some titanium R areas.

[lfromnj]

I highly doubt a court is going to shutdown a compact 39 or 40% black district based in Richmond and Petersburg,the current district is 41% black lol

[lfromnj]

Also, for those wondering I would pair the Charlottesville region, which is very different from most of its neighbors, and Richmond, even under a fair map. Why? Well, here's your dominant COI which influences the cultural perceptions of the resident population.

Ok then put VA beach with Cheasapeake instead of Norfolk, and of course Hanover must go with the Richmond white district before Charlottesville gets shoved in.

[lfromnj]

Worth noting that you could make a VA-03 that is mostly based on Richmond, though you probably still need to branch a bit outside the area to get the minority population high enough:



A district like this for instance would be 44% white and 43% black, which is probably enough to qualify?

No court is actually going to strike down a 40% black district based in Richmond, Democrats just want it a bit blacker and going to the South side because thats more polarized and makes it less of a sink and frees up people for Spanberger.

[lfromnj]

Northampton and Accomack (Delmarva) really does belong with Virginia Beach, it's just too awkward not to have them together.

By COI they belong with Tidewater, however the problem is the only bridge they have to the mainland is  in Virginia Beach so you have to shove them with VA beach in almost any map.

[lfromnj]

Northampton and Accomack (Delmarva) really does belong with Virginia Beach, it's just too awkward not to have them together.

By COI they belong with Tidewater, however the problem is the only bridge they have to the mainland is  in Virginia Beach so you have to shove them with VA beach in almost any map.

Is a bridge more important than the COI?  I don't really care about that honestly.

Uh even if it looks similar, road connections can create their own COI so often many people in the eastern shore will go down south for urban stuff like shopping etc.

[lfromnj]

Heres another interesting little split I created,
5 Clinton 6 Trump
7 Northam 4 Gillepsie
8 Kaine 3 Stewart

Wanted to keep the fredricksburg area together which boxed in the tidewater. As the tidewater region is only like 200k people I decided to connect Western Henrico to the Historic Triangle both of which are very educated. Unfortunately the tidewater is stuck here. Moves half a point right to the current VA 7th. VA 1st is moved to Safe D by pushing into PWC while VA 10th is moved to tossup at Trump +1


Overall creates
5 Safe D, 2 tossups, 1 lean R and 3 Safe R.

[lfromnj]

Heres another interesting little split I created,
5 Clinton 6 Trump
7 Northam 4 Gillepsie
8 Kaine 3 Stewart

Wanted to keep the fredricksburg area together which boxed in the tidewater. As the tidewater region is only like 200k people I decided to connect Western Henrico to the Historic Triangle both of which are very educated. Unfortunately the tidewater is stuck here. Moves half a point right to the current VA 7th. VA 1st is moved to Safe D by pushing into PWC while VA 10th is moved to tossup at Trump +1


Overall creates
5 Safe D, 2 tossups, 1 lean R and 3 Safe R.

Looks kinda risky for the R's.

It's not a gerrymander?
I'm just playing around with maps.

[lfromnj]

so mostly the same as my map, but a rotation between VA 5/VA 6 and VA 9 to make it more COI based?
I like it, also makes sense to keep the triangle with Western Richmond.

[lfromnj]

Because the fairfax quad cut is literally a blatant Democrat Gerrymander designed to give a 4th Safe D seat in NOVA. You literally have a Shenandoah to coastal district lol and drew a 8 Safe D and 3 Safe R map.

Theres 0 excuse to split the Richmond metro but then pair VA beach with Norfolk.