Targoz Market Research: Reeves +1, Beshear +19 (lol)

[lfromnj]

Didnt techbtimmy have a great post on TN and Roy moore with TN being 60% evangelical.

[lfromnj]

y’all know that the 23% “something else” is almost certainly people who were listening for “Christian” (or “Baptist,” etc.) and not massive oversampling of Hindus, right?

Yes, the fact they included a detailed religious breakdown is a luxury. Religion is a subjective variable that gets more  subjective based on the  number of provided options. You cannot weight by it because what is a member of 'x' religion in these days. Depending on the survey a 'x' can be as be as light or as heavy as the  viewer interprets it to be. 'X' can contain a respondent who only goes to services once a  year, and a respondent who goes every week. Both people call themselves 'X's but they are clearly distinct. Meanwhile, with increasing secularism more people may think of themselves as agnostic or nonreligious, even though they may still follow certain religious customs they were raised in or respond "yes I'm a X" if questioned hard enough. It's just like self-identified ideology, partisanship, or class - these are all flawed statistics when compared to the  hard stuff like race, gender, education, age, income, or geographic region.

If you guys really want to just throw out polls that disagree with your narrative, rather then throw them on the pile, you can do that without telling us and providing a bunch of justification.

Yes, it is such a luxury to have the pollster that convinced half of Atlas Phil Bredesen still had a chance back in the game.

These two elections are apples and oranges, Bredesen did the Ted Strickland thing and went against the party establishment to win an open seat. Ted Strickland stated Scalia's death was good for American people. Bredesen bucked party trend and foolishly endorsed Kavenaugh. Manchin endorsed Kavanaugh, but he is a well established official. Beshear will win, due to Bevin and his Ernie Fletchers approvals

Did OC just mention a governor who lost election 12 years ago.