MO Gov Galloway in

[lfromnj]

I really don't see Parson losing. If McCaskill lost by nearly six points even in a D+9 year, I don't see how Galloway can win in a year that's unlikely to be as D-friendly.

Kander lost by 3 in a D+2 (Pres)/R+1 (House) year so your point is moot.

And Gubernatorial elections are less polarizing than Senate. So even better for her.

Yeah and 2016 downballot was closer to 2012, The biggest swing from 2016 house to 2018 house was not WV3 but NJ 11th.

[lfromnj]

She will do around what McCaskill did.

She will likely do worse

1. 2020 likely won’t be a D+9 year
2. Contrary to McCaskill, Galloway won’t have $40M to spend
3. Parson is a popular incumbent
4. Running on abortion is not a winning issue in MO
5. Trump will likely carry this state by +15 and will provide coattails to other conservative candidates

It is dumb to campaign solely on abortion in  Missouri but even Mississippi rejected a life at conception amendment, Considering Missouri is more liberal than MS going against hardcore abortion bans can work.