IL-12 2020

[lfromnj]

Almost certainly not. Costello Jr might be able to make it interesting (I think he’s held down a Trump +40 seat with relative ease) but even he’d probably lose. Best to wait until Madigan draws a Downstate Democratic vote snake

tbh im not sure if Costello can even win in 2020 in his state house district. With Trump on the ballot and rural we may see even greater straight R ticket voting. He won by 25 points in 2016 but only won by 7 points last year.

[lfromnj]

Almost certainly not. Costello Jr might be able to make it interesting (I think he’s held down a Trump +40 seat with relative ease) but even he’d probably lose. Best to wait until Madigan draws a Downstate Democratic vote snake

tbh im not sure if Costello can even win in 2020 in his state house district. With Trump on the ballot and rural we may see even greater straight R ticket voting. He won by 25 points in 2016 but only won by 7 points last year.

I do not think he was contested that year? At least that is what NYT says.

It looks like he was unopposed in 2016 and 2014 and won by 25% in 2012 when the area was much more D-friendly downballot. The fact he won at all last year was impressive. He might be holding the title for most Republican district outside of the Deep South to be represented by a Democrat

Frank burns in PA in Cambria county might have the record.

[lfromnj]

lol. How do people who think districts that barely went to Clinton from Romney are safe D also think districts like this are still in play?

It isn't in play. However it would be interesting to see how much Costello would lose by. He probably would get within single digits but would not be able to win.

[lfromnj]

lol. How do people who think districts that barely went to Clinton from Romney are safe D also think districts like this are still in play?

It isn't in play. However it would be interesting to see how much Costello would lose by. He probably would get within single digits but would not be able to win.

Yeah, it’s Safe R barring Costello running and Likely R with him. It’d probably require a wave of 2008 proportions (or bigger) for someone like Costello to actually win. It’d be somewhere in the 250’s or 260’s in Dem House seats.

I would not go that far. 2018 was by no means that big a wave, and he still won by 8.

Landslide Van drew agrees. Costello would probably get some local advantage but its not enough to offset the Trump Trend.

[lfromnj]

lol. How do people who think districts that barely went to Clinton from Romney are safe D also think districts like this are still in play?

To be fair, most of the people who (hackishly) think TX-32/TX-7/NJ-7/KS-3 are Titanium D also acknowledge seats such as this are Safe R.

All those you listed are unironically likely/safe D.

Clinton Beto D 2018 voter for Trump/Beloved Cornyn 2020 R house candidate.

[lfromnj]

Almost certainly not. Costello Jr might be able to make it interesting (I think he’s held down a Trump +40 seat with relative ease) but even he’d probably lose. Best to wait until Madigan draws a Downstate Democratic vote snake

tbh im not sure if Costello can even win in 2020 in his state house district. With Trump on the ballot and rural we may see even greater straight R ticket voting. He won by 25 points in 2016 but only won by 7 points last year.

Costello is resigning from his state house seat to take a job in Pritzker's cabinet

https://capitolfax.com/2019/05/07/rep-jerry-costello-resigns-from-house-takes-idnr-top-cop-job/

Yeah he probably saw the light and cashed in his votes with Madigan the devil.