Percentage chance of Democratic control of the US Senate after 2020?

[lfromnj]

I'd say about 35%.
NC falls next. PresiDem would probably need to be winning by a solid but not spectacular margin. 51 - 48

Clinton won nationwide by 2 points in 2016, but lost NC by 3.5 points. Do you see NC trending Democratic in the presidential race, or do you see the Democratic Senate candidate running ahead of the Democratic presidential candidate in NC?

It’s much easier to envision a Trump/Jackson voter than it is a PresiDem/Tillis voter. The former is the kind of unengaged person who probably doesn’t like Trump but thinks he hasn’t done anything tooo bad but REALLY likes that hunk Jeff Jackson and his haircut and how he’s a veteran even though there’s no real policy differences between Jackson and PresiDem. Basically like your Trump/Kander voter in Missouri in 2016.

I guess Kander's performance is pretty conclusive in support of the notion that Democratic Senate candidates can significantly run ahead of the top of the ticket against a Republican incumbent in presidential years. Though it's worth noting that John McCain, Marco Rubio, Chuck Grassley, Richard Burr, Johnny Isakson, Rob Portman, and Ron Johnson all ran ahead of Trump in 2016, while Mark Kirk, Kelly Ayotte, Joe Heck, and Pat Toomey all basically matched Trump's margin of victory or defeat.

In most circumstances it’s very dependent on the candidate. Like if the voter likes the challenger’s haircut or thinks they are bang-able. Voters don’t behave rationally, so might as well give them what they aesthetically want

Only ayotte/Heck really matched Trump

Kirk and Toomey were vastly different from Trump's map. Kirk lost Gallatin county a Trump+50 county while only losing Lake by 5 points compared to Trumps 20.

Toomey won chester and bucks two suburban PA counties while losing Lackawanna by 16 points which Trump only lost by 3.

[lfromnj]

I'd say about 35%.
NC falls next. PresiDem would probably need to be winning by a solid but not spectacular margin. 51 - 48

Clinton won nationwide by 2 points in 2016, but lost NC by 3.5 points. Do you see NC trending Democratic in the presidential race, or do you see the Democratic Senate candidate running ahead of the Democratic presidential candidate in NC?

It’s much easier to envision a Trump/Jackson voter than it is a PresiDem/Tillis voter. The former is the kind of unengaged person who probably doesn’t like Trump but thinks he hasn’t done anything tooo bad but REALLY likes that hunk Jeff Jackson and his haircut and how he’s a veteran even though there’s no real policy differences between Jackson and PresiDem. Basically like your Trump/Kander voter in Missouri in 2016.

I guess Kander's performance is pretty conclusive in support of the notion that Democratic Senate candidates can significantly run ahead of the top of the ticket against a Republican incumbent in presidential years. Though it's worth noting that John McCain, Marco Rubio, Chuck Grassley, Richard Burr, Johnny Isakson, Rob Portman, and Ron Johnson all ran ahead of Trump in 2016, while Mark Kirk, Kelly Ayotte, Joe Heck, and Pat Toomey all basically matched Trump's margin of victory or defeat.

In most circumstances it’s very dependent on the candidate. Like if the voter likes the challenger’s haircut or thinks they are bang-able. Voters don’t behave rationally, so might as well give them what they aesthetically want

Only ayotte/Heck really matched Trump

Kirk and Toomey were vastly different from Trump's map. Kirk lost Gallatin county a Trump+50 county while only losing Lake by 5 points compared to Trumps 20.

Toomey won chester and bucks two suburban PA counties while losing Lackawanna by 16 points which Trump only lost by 3.

Does that really challenge my point though? I find it hard to pinpoint where on the map Tillis would run better than Trump. Tillis’ poll numbers are trash, and unlike in 2016, these Republicans can’t credibly separate themselves from Trump

I doubt these trends will continue in 2020 with there being such a large disparate. gap as we saw many even when the year went from R+1 to D+9 many #populist D's like Tim Ryan, Kildee,Peterson and others saw their margins of victory brought down because of sheer partisanship catching up. I was merely just commenting that Tillis in 2016 would have done worse in a lot of rurals but done slightly better in Charlotte MSA and Research Triangle.