Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[lfromnj]

Stick a fork in McSally, she's done.

when will dems stick a fork in Nelson?

Already did around 1am central time November 7th, your turn.

I mean I stuck a fork in Mcsally since she took the lead.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/DrRyanLove/status/1061417094326161410

STOP STOP you are killing her.

[lfromnj]

is there anyone besides Ducey or Mcsally moderate enough to win Az 2020?

It looks like AZ will be a moderate hero state as it trends democrat.
 

[lfromnj]

AZ-SOS is gonna flip Dem if the votes keep going like this, that'd be great news for AZ Dems and National Dems for 2020 and beyond.

Not to mention a Democrat winning Superintendent of Public Instruction and another hopefully getting a seat on the Corporation Commission.

SOS is by far the biggest downballot prize. Becomes Gov if Ducey leaves

yeah that basically gives them the 2020 senate seat too as I don't think a loser will run again after they lost in a light red state(beto has the excuse of making a great margin) so ducey will not let the governor become a democrat.

[lfromnj]

yeah we get it. Sinema probably wins by 2 points.
Its over. Only thing that matters now is SOS race.

[lfromnj]

Hobbs only down exactly 2008 votes in the SOS race now, and Sandra Kennedy has the most votes of anyone in the Corporation Commission race.

Yeah SOS is probably Lean D RN.

[lfromnj]

Incredibly excited over AZ Secretary of State results so far

(might just be the most nerdiest thing said ever)

Me too. Because:

1. Ducey wouldn’t run for Senate in 2020 if Hobbs was SOS (he would be the best NRSC recruit)
2. Election oversight
3. Hobbs would stand an excellent chance of becoming AZ Gov in her own right given how many past Secretaries of State have become Governor of Arizona

Yeah if hobbs wins im keeping AZ senate Tilt D for 2020.

[lfromnj]

AZ-SEN and FL-SEN of course.

Both are safe D and Safe R.
Stick in a fork in mcsally and Nelson

[lfromnj]

yeah its easily caleld for Sinema but anyway whats the rating for 2020 now that it looks like Hobbs is in the lead?
I have to say Lean D coz the only person that can win both the PRIMARY and the GENERAL is Ducey but ducey can't leave coz SOS is lt gov too in Az. Kelli Ward comes in and its probably gonna go democrat even if Trump carries Arizona.

[lfromnj]

The 'R+10 ballots' has to be the biggest scam of 2018.

I mean they are R+10 just the ballots for Manchin are D+20 in Logan county.

[lfromnj]

Hobbs ahead by 150 votes, Sinema up 32,640.

This race is callable Imo.

What does the Arizona SoS do? How significant is it if she wins?

Very significant. Besides running elections, SoS is first in the gubernatorial line of succession. If Ducey decides to appoint himself to the seat, then Hobbs will become the new governor.

yeah it basically makes Az Sen 2020 Lean D coz Chemtrail kelli finally gets her chance.

[lfromnj]

Remember back when some Republicans here thought McSally was the only one of the GOP primary trio who would defeat Sinema?

yeah because Arpaaio would have won by energizing the base.

[lfromnj]

I think McSally may be aiming for an appointment.

That would make for some nice ads in 2020: "The voters rejected her once, but was picked by the political elite to fill another seat anyway. Who is she really representing?!"

Meh. I mean, who else does the AZGOP really have? Ward? lol. Gosar? lol. Schweikert? lol. Lesko? Maybe, but her big underperformance in the special (and then the general to a lesser extent) doesn't exactly inspire confidence. McSally is still probably the best candidate in the lot.

Yeah I was basically talking about weak the AZ senate bench for the GOP will be in 2020.  Losing SOS just shuts down Ducey from running for senate and Mcsally probably can't win a primary despite having the best image of any congress person from Arizona. They need someoen with some name recognition otherwise Ward goes for it and wins the primary. This is probably more likely to Flip than maine 2020 although it is a bit early.

[lfromnj]

Bruce is slightly more scared than Rick Scott

https://twitter.com/KJ_Online/status/1061604457727827968

Sad Polluiquin can't win a trump +10 most rural district in the country when most other republicans who lost were burb stomped.

[lfromnj]

He is right Lewis.
Mcain cost them the house because they didn't get health care reform and the dems could attack them freely. Now the ACA is safe because the house is dem.

[lfromnj]

Dems getting closer in CA-50. Deplorable Duncan is sweating.

isn't that a 7 point margin?
I don't see ACN winning this.

[lfromnj]

Dems getting closer in CA-50. Deplorable Duncan is sweating.

isn't that a 7 point margin?
I don't see ACN winning this.

Yea, but Duncan Hunter was up around 55-44 on election night. It would be good to make it semi close for 2020.

He won't run in 2020 or atleast  another republican will make the run off. Maybe issa?

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1062133529654394882

Which means dems F***ed up here, since they only had one nominee instead of two (you get two votes for the MMD house districts). If they had two nominees who both won, then the house would be 30 - 30.

That's what happened with Republicans in 2010 when they failed to flip the Arkansas state House because they left many Democratic districts uncontested.

woah its the exact same situation too.
Trending state towards one party.
Senate Seat flips
Incumbent governor wins by a landslide.
Houses don't flip.

[lfromnj]

McSally has conceded:

https://twitter.com/MarthaMcSally/status/1062144676822577152

 

McSally deserves some credit for losing graciously and not drinking the Republican voter fraud Kool-Aid.

Agreed, although it is sad that it has come to a point that this is at all unusual or unexpected. But respect to McSally anyway. She was a good candidate running in the face of a Dem wave and the alternative Rs would have definitely lost by more.

I think mitch at this point just wished she lost the primary to Ward.
Now you will get Ward winning the primary unless Ducey runs and then the RGA throws a fit over giving the governorship and possibily the legislature away in 2020 making Arizona a dem trifecta.

[lfromnj]

wait so how much left in the SLC of utah 4th?

[lfromnj]

Also, lol:

https://twitter.com/DrewGodinich/status/1062546740337770497

lol its funny to laugh at these people who never had to run a competetive GE ever before.

Anyway she already got the first step of lighting money on fire on stupid goals such as saving Barbara Comstock.

[lfromnj]

If Mia Love still pulls this out in UT-4 she may have to thank Mitt Romney to thank for.

I'd say it's more that Utah County is growing very rapidly. Its probably one of if not the most Republican county with a population over 500,000. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montgomery_County,_Texas

Maybe this? It voted 25-75 for rourke.