The BlueSwan Basement of Absurd & Ignorant Posts VIII

[lfromnj]

Could it be jimtrex then?

[lfromnj]

Yeah Lol Im not shocked the maroons are against gun control. Its quite normal

[lfromnj]

I think in a Double Digit Dem Victory Elliot would flip.


Up to an 8 point Dem win Elliot will be solidly R but then after that it would begin swing hard and flip Dem around a 12 point Dem victory

[lfromnj]

After so many years, people still don't learn their lesson about NV polling.

NeVaDa PoLLs aRe iNacCuRaTe, sO tHe 2012-2018 and 2016-2018 R tReNd DoEsN’t MaTtEr.

Maybe you'd have a point if there was an R trend.

there literally was an R trend in 2016.

From 2016 to 2018 Nevada trended D.

Not really.

In 2016 it was D+2 around. It was around +4.5(senate +5 Gov+4.1 the other races were a bit closer). Nation went from D+2 to D+8 or 9.

Even house went from D+1 in 2016 to D+6 in 2018.

Thats the definition of an R trend lol.

You really have to twist numbers to make that an R trend. How some people are able to convince themselves that a 5 point shift towards Democrats is the definition of an R trend is beyond me.

From this thread. https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=post;quote=6736354;topic=317021.0;num_replies=49;sesc=51367f047152d21f7d3017d6b769deb7


Might add to my sig.

[lfromnj]

But muh-incumbency

Muh-elastic south

JBE will follow the path of Mary Landrieu, be competitive up until the jungle primary and then have nearly all the undecideds break against him during the runoff

56-44 Abraham over Edwards in Runoff (FLIP)

More reasonable than Joni Ernst losing

A 12 point loss at this point is a hot take but its not that unreasonable.

[lfromnj]

Can both of you finking chill lol

[lfromnj]

Its absurd to use Vermont with the Sanders write in.

[lfromnj]

Not that I would take away the SNAP benefits, as people there need them. (I would take sugary sodas off the list of eligible items; I would give everyone on SNAP a cookbook; I would replace sodas with detergents as items of eligibility).

What is wrong with Trump country?

Yeah not gonna deny its just as ed up lol with regards to poverty.

But even with all that poverty.

https://www.usnews.com/education/best-high-schools/kentucky/districts/owsley-county/owsley-county-high-school-8396

It still has half the people proficient in math/reading.   I would much rather be brought up here than Baltimore Maryland because atleast there is a decent chance of getting out of the vicious cycle of poverty Baltimore creates.


https://www.usnews.com/education/best-high-schools/maryland/districts/baltimore-city-public-schools/patterson-high-9017

Meanwhile a school in inner city Baltimore.

I do understand the Kentucky test districts probably have a slightly lower standard but overall there is no legitimate excuse to explain why these two schools are so different with regard to school performance. Even when comparing nationalized standardized tests  with ACT to SAT and using a convertor the Owsley county students have a score about 100 higher. What resources do these students have that inner city Baltimore students don't?

It's easier to get out of a vicious cycle of poverty in rural Kentucky than in Baltimore because of the systematic white supremacy that's the root of the issue in the first place. Those kids in Kentucky probably have access to old boy networks and other needed resources that alot of inner city kids in Baltimore don't have which need to addressed via destroying America's racial caste system via reparations (both in land and wealth). Wouldn't put too much stock in the SAT/ACT due to it's origins.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/EllenPompeo/status/1156758498144743424

What a narcissistic pos. You are married to a black man and you throw out a tweet with coded Trumpian language that is only going to hurt the division in the party? Was I right when speaking about the open racism that is being instigated by the Russian bots?


Ellen should be ashamed of herself and apologize to Senator Harris.

[lfromnj]

Both are centre-right in Europe.

Somebody doesnt get sarcasm. I think you are the one that makes toast in their bathtub

[lfromnj]

Both are centre-right in Europe.

Somebody doesnt get sarcasm. I think you are the one that makes toast in their bathtub

There are posts in that thread unironically agreeing with that statement.

He literally said Karl Marx is merely a centrist.

[lfromnj]

A swing map isn't (2016% - 2020%) though.  It's ((2016 state% - 2016 national%) - (2020 state% - 2020national%))

So let's say Clinton got 40% in Texas and 47% nationally.  (state - national) is -7.  If Biden gets 53% nationally and 42% in Texas, then (state - national) is -11.  So Texas would be a 4-point R swing, not a 2-point D swing.

Given that's how it works, it's impossible for every state to trend right relative to the national average, because they would pull the national average right with them.  If Biden got 0% nationally and 0% in every state, the trend map would just be the inverse of the 2016 map.

No dude, that's a trend map. A swing map is simply the margin change since the last election.

Is that so?  Maybe I'm wrong.

Well, here's the difference in a nutshell: Trend accounts for change in the national popular vote. Swing does not. For example, Iowa swung about 16% to the right in 2016. But it only trended 14% to the right because of the change in NPV.

This has some interesting implications. To give you an example, Kansas swung to the right in 2016, but actually trended to the left because of the NPV.

Mostly right but Kansas swung slightly to the left. A better example is Colorado or Oregon

[lfromnj]

Not surprised she’s a creepy degenerate. Won’t matter for her re-elect chances though because her district would vote now for a corpse if the democrats ran one, all because Orange Man Says Mean Things.

That's interesting considering your state almost sent a racist pedophile to the senate just because he had an R next to his name.

And we should have! Pedophiles are way, way better than democrats -- hear me out. Almost all democrats (~90%) want to kill children, but some pedophiles do not. So it's rather hypocritical for dems to criticize pedophiles, as plenty of those folks are less dangerous to children than democrats. They have no moral high ground when it comes to this.

And Moore, to my knowledge, is not a racist. 

[lfromnj]

No, I support both Assad and Maduro.

[lfromnj]

The only thing that really bothers me about him is the fact that his acting like he is just so much better than anybody else who does not agree with him when this was a forum meant for civil discussion

Civil discussion doesn’t really exist on this forum, and I don’t believe it has since I joined.

This forum used to be very civil. 2014 was a great year for all of us. Trumps rise coincides with a cognitive decline among Atlas Democrats.

It gave you guys a reason to let your fascism/racism/sexism out, just be honest! As we valiantly did in WWII we need to do it again now to stamp out the rot.

[lfromnj]

Nevada is essentially Clark County and Clark is trending solidly Democrat.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=342066.0
From this thread. 2nd post .
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=2016&fips=32&f=1&off=0&elect=0&def=tnd&datatype=county

[lfromnj]

As I said before, in this political climate "centrism" is often used as a code word for corporatism. If we were to use the international/global political spectrum, you will notice that people like Sanders are actually more "centrist" while people like Biden are pretty right-leaning.

BERNIES A CENTRIST IN EUROPE GUYS.

[lfromnj]

Indeed, and I didn't claim so. With a population of 13,000 it barely qualifies as rural-exurban.

But all signs point to suburbs witnessing similar sky-high swings against the GOP.

Expecting suburbs to swing by 55 points.
LOL
Even Atheron California and Darien CT didnt swing this far left in 2016.

[lfromnj]

No idea about OK. But Monongalia, Boone, Kanawha, and McDowell are winnable for democrats under the right circumstances.

I don't think its sarcasm(commies still think WV is left wing at heart) also he mentions Monongolia which could actually flip but lol at Boone and Mcdowell flipping D in 2020.

[lfromnj]

I realize this is like shooting fish in a barrel, but...

It actually is. While IA has a commission for relatively fair maps, a trifecta can ignore their requests and draw their own gerrymander. By taking an IA state chamber, we can secure the commission's ability to provide a fair map.

“Fair map” =Democratic gerrymander

Next up, elections being fair means that they were rigged by the Democrats.

Didn’t he also say Dems only won in virginia because of a “pro-dem judicialmander”?

I strongly dislike the VA redistricting because its based on the VRA and even then Im not sure the districts were necessarily overpacked as a black rural district was nearly lost this year. Its absurd to demand that a 52% district in MS isn't enough so it has to be 58%(at the expense of a second senate seat) but then demand 40% black districts in VA. Secondly the VA state senate was a D gerrymander, that Roanake to Montgomery county District shouldn't exist and should be Safe R so the redistricting only fixed the R gerrymander but not the R Gerrymander.

TBF atleast the VRA is law(but its still a bad and absurd law) and although the NC redistricting fixed a clear partisan gerrymander I don't really think there was anything specific in the state constitution but atleast the judges there were elected by the state likely to end the GOP gerrymandering.
The best use of a court is also unfortunately one where the courts will not interefere next decade which is Florida. Florida was a GOP gerrymander but the law suit to the state supreme court fixed that a bit(although FL 5th is a disgraceful district when its clear a tossup Talhasee district and a Lean D Jacksonville district could have been made which were much more compact .

[lfromnj]

"Diversity" is nothing more than a dogwhistle to mean "non-White".

You quoting the post here is an absurd post

[lfromnj]

My reported posts count just went from 44 ---> 45

Its always worth going up in reported posts but not getting moderated.

[lfromnj]

As usual, a rude and exceptionally trashy choice to post in this thread out of a discussion in which you are participating. You have a way of making people feel sorry for making the mistake of engaging with you in the first place.

Dude, you've been on Atlas too long to be this thin-skinned.  In any case, I can't stand Bloomberg either and hate what him being nominated would represent, but the idea that he'd be worse for the country than four more years of Trump is absurd at best.

This might not be the proper thread to discuss this, but to those of us who view Trump as not the cause of our problems but a symptom of those problems that have existed long before his presidency, four or eight years of Bloomberg would not be much better than four more years of Trump because we see no evidence that he would do what is necessary to change those things which led to the election of Trump in the first place.

If it's four more years of Trump as opposed to four or eight years of Bloomberg followed by four or eight years of Cotton or Hawley, I would be hard pressed not to pick the former because if you think Trumpism is bad, imagine Trumpism but with a president who's not constantly undermined by scandal and personality and overall ineptitude.

The GOP thanks you for 6 SCOTUS seats
(accelerationism is an idiotic idea to focus on and you should just try to win every election you can)

[lfromnj]

This whole thing shows how stupid gendered sports are in the first place, rather than doing the logical thing and dividing athletes up by size class.

[lfromnj]

This is a dangerous proposal. While I'm sure it is not the Chancellor's intention, this rhetoric is often used by those who believe in "reverse racism"--that white folks can be "discriminated against." This is not only untrue, but it ignores that actual systemic racism exists and actively harms minorities in our region. Establishing a standard that our region welcomes this type of rhetoric is not something I will stand for. Therefore, I will be voting against this proposal.

Yes I believe in racism lol.