Early Voting thread.

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RALSTON HAS RURALS

He doesn’t think they’re enough to outpace the Clark freiwal yet.

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Ralston’s summation of where things stand in Nevada right now:

“Bottom line: I think the Dems have reason to be happy because these do not look at all like red wave numbers after a week. But Repubs also must be content that after a week, the mail is not as voluminous as 2020 and the Dem margins also are not as great. That is: It’s close.”

(My hunch is mail is moving very slowly this cycle and things will look better for Dems next week, but it being close at all is perfectly unsurprising.)

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https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1587118683347857408?s=46&t=dVhJuwc...

Latest Nevada update seems pretty bad.

It does, I'll admit. The big caveat, however, is that mail has reportedly been very slow to process this cycle. We've really got to wait and see how that develops over this week. I still find it hard to believe turnout in Clark would be so low overall.

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https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1587118683347857408?s=46&t=dVhJuwc...
Latest Nevada update seems pretty bad.

The difference in 2022 is the Dem reg edge in Clark is already below 10 percent, which is the margin a Dem statewide needs to win Clark with to feel comfortable. Biden won Nevada by just under 10 but did so because Dems won Washoe and there were not enough rural votes. So Dems really need Clark indies to split evenly or break their way or it’s sayonara. And they need Washoe, too.

Bottom line: We are about where we were in the last midterm – specifics below – but the difference for Dems is they had Donald Trump as a motivator and did well and this time the Rs have Joe Biden as a motivator. The Dems cannot feel warm and fuzzy with a statewide lead under 3 percent. As James Carville might have said: It’s the indies, stupid.

Oh my gosh, I am savoring this data.

If you were you'd see that his models at the end of the post still point to a Democratic victory in both big races. This is the most nervous I've been about Nevada so far, but it's still not "forumlurker savoring" territory.

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Isn't 2022 the first time that Nevada is doing an all-VBM election? I feel like that alone makes comparisons to 2018 somewhat silly.

It is! Ralston has repeatedly called it "an orange when all you have are apples" (or something along those lines).

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Absolutely nuts that Laxalt could win independents by 10 and still lose

There's a reason Nevada is "Titanium Tilt D."

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Georgia:

Day 14 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 26,314 voters cast ballots Sunday, for a grand total of 1,660,633 votes.

Breakdown of Sunday's voters:

Code:

11417 	White	43.39%
9741 	Black	37.02%
1207         Asian	4.59%
801    	Latino	3.04%
3148 	Other	11.96%

15183	Female	57.70%
10991 	Male	        41.77%	
140          Other         0.53%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

952071	White	57.33%
499804	Black	30.10%
28528	Asian	1.72%
27234       Latino	1.64%
152996	Other	9.21%

915084	Female	55.10%
742132	Male	        44.69%	
3417	        Other	0.21%

Pretty clear Souls to the Polls remains a strong factor.

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https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1587297202912874502?s=20&t=QIVcuG9...

Looking better for Dems in NV today. Still waiting on mail from this weekend.

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https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1587464538831478786?s=20&t=0A7_u4j...

This looks not great, folks.

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Lots of time left before the election, I for sure wouldn’t count NV as gone for Ds.

With that being said yes the EV looks a bit better for Rs than it has historically at this point. If the EV continues to trend well for Rs then that would be a very ominous sign for Dems.

I'm having a lot of trouble squaring it with turnout in AZ. Unless something bizarre is going to happen every day the rest of this week (which is possible, I suppose).

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18,000+ mail days for the rest of the week would be just lovely, thanks.

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Ok, time for me to give some folks a reality check for those who are apparently buying the Political Matrix/Listener Group Poll that has Crist 53-47 over DeSantis
https://twitter.com/FreshTakeFla/status/1587586243315273729
Tomorrow FL GOP will likely expand their lead beyond 200,000 Ballots.

In Miami-Dade 215 Ballots seperate DEM vs REP.

Nobody is buying that poll except maybe OC.

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https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1588029642593779712?s=20&t=DvyMsvC...

Good news everyone: Nevada is being weird.

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Forgive me if I don’t trust a word of what Donna Brazile says.

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https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1589445647333064704

The fact he needs scotch and is turning off Twitter DEFINITELY tells us which way he thinks this is going…and I trust him.

He’s a big Bills fan — their loss today was scotch-worthy.

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Seriously what is this 303 map being spoken of by certain posters?

One of our more…eccentric posters has a habit of talking about a “303 map” referring to Biden’s victory in the EC over Trump in 2020. It’s just a little forum meme.