Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[pantsaregood]

I think everyone should be careful with their expectations. That includes expectations of when we’ll know with certainty who won.

I think we know after midnight, Republicans win as any rational predictor would be able to see

Remember that time that you couldn't stop responding to every single post with "Biden can't win Georgia?"
Remember when you told people they were naive for thinking Biden could win Georgia when he was down by 5000 votes and the remaining vote was all from the Atlanta metro?

Pepperidge farm remembers.

[pantsaregood]

I think everyone should be careful with their expectations. That includes expectations of when we’ll know with certainty who won.

I'm getting wrecked today.

I think we know after midnight, Republicans win as any rational predictor would be able to see

Remember that time that you couldn't stop responding to every single post with "Biden can't win Georgia?"
Remember when you told people they were naive for thinking Biden could win Georgia when he was down by 5000 votes and the remaining vote was all from the Atlanta metro?

Pepperidge farm remembers.

I know, MillennialModerate is so annoying. Off-topic, but would you like to get an avatar like all of us? It's super easy, you just go to "profile" then to "Forum Profile Information" and pick an avatar. You don't even have to pick a state/country, you can select a historical avatar like Prussia or the Roman Empire!

Pants are good. Avatars are good too!

I'm just getting wrecked today.

[pantsaregood]

This is going to suck. And by suck I mean really suck

Can we start a poorly aging quote train for you like the one Woodbury had? You really deserve it.

[pantsaregood]

This is going to suck. And by suck I mean really suck

Can we start a poorly aging quote train for you like the one Woodbury had? You really deserve it.

We get it. I was relentless about Georgia in November and was wrong by a hair.

This is much much much different ballgame.

Name a (reasonable) number... Venmo wager.

Tonight’s not happening. The cult will prevail, evil over decency wins tonight I’m afraid

No. You're being ridiculous because you constantly moved the goalposts on November 3, and you will continue to do so now.

"Biden doesn't have a chance."
"Give it up guys, Georgia isn't happening."

Margin continues to narrow, remaining vote is largely favorable to Biden:

"Just stop."
"It isn't happening."

Margin drops into <20,000 range:

"He might get close, but it can't happen."

Your argument is not informed. It is solely based on your goofy beliefs about how Georgia "should" vote. While all data points to this race being a toss up, my gut instinct (that I will not assert as fact) is that Loeffler and Perdue will pull out narrow wins.

Also, don't qualify being wrong (after you were annoyingly vocal about being ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN) about the Presidential election with "by a hair." You insisted that Biden was going to get blown out in Georgia - that's not "wrong by a hair" any more than the Biden+17 Wisconsin poll was "wrong by a hair."

[pantsaregood]

The hunch at the moment is that Republicans win and it's not close.
Just a hunch.

Welcome to the ignore list.

Hint: Being "right" by chance is not the same thing as having an informed opinion. If I predict that Ossoff and Warnock somehow win by double digits and it actually happens, it doesn't make my prediction any less poorly informed based on available data.

[pantsaregood]

Is there another runoff six months later if the results are within a point of each other? I feel like I saw that somewhere or something like that?

There's nothing to run off. Unless the vote is tied (in which case I have no idea what happens), one of the candidates is guaranteed to get 50% + 1 votes or more.

[pantsaregood]

The worst possible outcome of this is Loeffler and Perdue winning by like 7 votes each and MillennialModerate insisting he knew all along and that he was "right" despite predicting a "not close" race.

[pantsaregood]

My personal barometer of how to forecast things is people responding to me with

“even if you are right, it doesn’t mean anything”

As opposed to “you’re an idiot and wrong”.

I’m mad for letting a hint of optimism creep into my subconscious when my brain told me lightning can’t strike twice. Honestly the circumstances are ALOT harder this time then the Presidential race.

Literally no one is telling you to be optimistic. They're telling you that EVERY DATA POINT WE HAVE says "toss up."

If I predict an Ossoff win by 7 votes and Perdue happens to win by 3 votes, my prediction was more accurate than you "IT WON'T EVEN BE CLOSE GIVE IT UP GUYS MY FEELINGS" nonsense.

[pantsaregood]

If i'm a Dem i would be very careful with higher turnout on election day EVERYWHERE. I remember some of you hyping miami dade numbers on election day.

The general consensus among Democrats in this thread appears to be less "getting hopes up" and more "it is a toss up and anyone predicting a massive D or R win is not making their prediction based on any evidence we have."

[pantsaregood]

LOL, the gap is 19k.

OSOFF IS NOT WINNING. Holy sh**t I’ll take apologies in writing.

The lynch mob mentality in this group is hilarious

You are a master of moving goalposts.

"The elections won't be close. Republicans will win both."

Now Warnock has clearly won, so you've changed your position?

Seriously, can we please ban you?