NJ Democratic Senate Primary - General Discussion

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I have been supporting and helping Rob Andrews. We need new leadership in New Jersey. Debate already Frank!

Frank's just not good at that anymore.  Not that he was good at it when he was younger, but he's definitely gotten worse and more cranky.

Voting in Rob Andrews right now is just plain a smart move for New Jersey.  He's a fiscal moderate who's liberal on all the right social issues, and young enough to build up some serious seniority.  He could really be New Jersey's next Bill Bradley—it's been a long draught since New Jersey had a great Senator, as opposed to an okay one (Corzine), a lackluster one (Lautenberg), or an awful one (Torricelli).

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I can't enter polls, so I'll just post the data here.

New Jersey U.S. Senate
Pollster: Gannett/Monmouth Univ.

TOPLINE—Democratic Primary
35% Frank Lautenberg*
28% Undecided (vol)
20% Rob Andrews
8% No Preference (vol)
5% Donald Cresitello


All voters on Lautenberg: 26% Reelect; 61% Someone new

Lautenberg Job Performance
59% Approve; 19% Disapprove (among Democrats only)
48% Approve; 31% Disapprove (among all voters)

Andrews
13% Favorable; 12% Unfavorable (among all voters)

TOPLINE—GOP Primary
40% Undecided (vol)
25% Dick Zimmer
20% No Preference (vol)
6% None of These (vol)
5% Joe Pennachio
4% Murray Sabrin

GENERAL ELECTION
"Regardless of who the candidates are, do you think you are more likely to vote for the Democrat or the Republican candidate for senator in November?"
54% Democrat
24% Republican

And just for fun:
Corzine's job approval is 34% approve; 52% disapprove.

(Note that I feel a good chunk of these numbers are suspect—the poll has Obama out in front of McCain by 56%—32%, a 24-point margin.)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Fox News just put an R next to Cresitello's name. (he was calling for Christie's resignation over the illegal alien flap)

I can almost forgive them on that one—he's a nobody who does naught but rail on illegals.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

From PolitickerNJ:

Does Lautenberg have an Unanue problem?

Residency could be the issue of the week in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. According to a report from Politics1.com, four-term incumbent Frank Lautenberg claimed a homestead property tax exemption by declaring his Washington, D.C. condo as his permanent residence, and notes that a concierge at Lautenberg’s Bergen County condo says that he rarely stayed there over the last few years and “only recently began using the apartment again in the last couple of months.” Lautenberg’s wife lives in New York City, where she is registered to vote.

Lautenberg's office says the Senator did not take a homestead property tax exemption for his place in Washington, and said that a D.C. government computer system error mistakenly gave tax breaks to people that did not qualify. Lautenberg, his office says, uses his New Jersey condo when he's not in Washington and picks up his own mail there.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

From PolitickerNJ:

Does Lautenberg have an Unanue problem?

Residency could be the issue of the week in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. According to a report from Politics1.com, four-term incumbent Frank Lautenberg claimed a homestead property tax exemption by declaring his Washington, D.C. condo as his permanent residence, and notes that a concierge at Lautenberg’s Bergen County condo says that he rarely stayed there over the last few years and “only recently began using the apartment again in the last couple of months.” Lautenberg’s wife lives in New York City, where she is registered to vote.

Lautenberg's office says the Senator did not take a homestead property tax exemption for his place in Washington, and said that a D.C. government computer system error mistakenly gave tax breaks to people that did not qualify. Lautenberg, his office says, uses his New Jersey condo when he's not in Washington and picks up his own mail there.

This has already been disproven! You'd think political reporters would know this was taken care of years ago.

The relevant information here is more the fact that Frank Lautenberg simply does not live in New Jersey and has no interest in living in New Jersey—this goes beyond the Dem sniping at Rick Santorum.   Lautenberg DOES have a residence in the area he spends time at.  It's just that the residence in question is across the river in New York.

You know, the city where Lautenberg has his gym membership.  And where his wife lives and is registered to vote.

But hey!  He picks up his own mail in New Jersey!  SIX MORE YEARS!

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I don't see the issue. He grew up here, built his business here, is registered to vote here, and keeps a residence. Plenty of NJ people spend a lot of their time in NYC. You have to be kidding with this gym membership. Are you serious? Is that supposed to mean something? What a joke.

Personally, I like my Senators to actually live in the state which they represent.  Kinda gives them an idea of what's going on around them.  I guess you don't care, so long as the Senator is a harsh, partisan jerk.  (And so long as the person is a harsh, partisan Democrat, cause I sure don't remember you being so forgiving with Andy Unanue!)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

BUMP

Little over a week left, I really have no idea how this race is going to turn out.  I would assume Zimmer wins for the Republicans.  As far as the Dems, does anyone have any knowledge, trends or polls or something?  I really hope Andrews pulls it out.

Here's the real shocker:  In a Zimmers/Andrews race I would be supporting Andrews

Polls generally show Lautenberg way ahead of Andrews, but such polls are rather unreliable—they simply do not convey the importance or power of the line.

The line will be even bigger in the GOP race, where Pennachio actually has a solid group of lines.  If not for that, he'd be finished.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Watched the Republican senate debate, confirmed my belief that Dick Zimmer is trash.  Not only is he incredibly liberal, he blinks ever two seconds and has no public speaking ability.  Pennachio is a fool and talks like Elmer Fudd.  Sabrin was the only one who made sense or had any speaking ability.  He had a great comeback when Pennachio talked about winning 6 elections in a row, saying that it was like winning in the Soviet Union

Poor Murray Sabrin.  He's just jealous that, unlike Zimmer and Pennachio, he's never won a single damn thing.  And he won't have won a single damn thing after the primary, either.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Lautenberg will win by double digits. Andrews is a "go whichever way the wind is bliowing" type of Democrat, and that's not what we need.

Andrews has been a pretty solid moderate-to-liberal Democrat his entire time in office.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Lautenberg will win by double digits. Andrews is a "go whichever way the wind is bliowing" type of Democrat, and that's not what we need.

Andrews has been a pretty solid moderate-to-liberal Democrat his entire time in office.

They don't care to hear that. As long as he's popular with Republicans (especially Republicans like me), they will dislike the guy. He'll make a great Senator if he wins.

Forget Republicans—in his district, he's popular with everyone.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0mccyZIGlk

Dayum

It's a pretty brutal ad.  Whether or not it moves voters, I don't know... but if that's a Hail Mary, it's a darn good one.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Mostly I will be voting for Lautenberg because he has shown consistency

Frank Lautenberg in 2003:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=QD704_gOb3Y

It's even more amusing when you consider that Lautenberg opposed the Gulf War in 1991, but eventually came around to supporting our current clusterf**k when it was politically expedient to do so.  Whoops!

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

On the bright side for Rob Andrews supporters, he's assuredly going back to Congress this January.

Never before did I think the South Jersey Democratic-Machine-of-Evil would come in handy!

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I find it really amusing that you actually think Andrews will win. Then again, maybe it shouldn't be surprising; we see projections of desires from you all the time.

I never denied I make predictions based on desires often, but there is really no polling out for this race other than those that suggest Lautenberg has low approvals.  If Andrews can make a dent in Bergen and/or Hudson, he has more than a 50/50 shot

There were a few polls showing Lautenberg around 40-45% and Andrews around 15-20% (and Cresitello around 5-10%). Anyway, local evidence suggests Andrews is going to get beaten to a pulp here; there are no Andrews signs but tons of Lautenberg signs (usually in tandem with various other local officials being challenged in the primaries). Actually, that last could hurt Lautenberg as he's heavily tied his horse to the Ferriero candidates in Bergen County, but I think it's somewhat unlikely.

It'll be interesting to see which column Andrews is on in the sample ballots. Column 3 would definitely be a big boost...

One of the problems for Lautenberg in Bergen is that, while he may be heavily behind the Ferriero slate, Ferriero is lukewarm about Lautenberg himself, only backing him out of fear of Rothman.

Will Ferriero really want to put the machine to work for Lautenberg?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Here's a sample ballot from Hunterdon County. There, they apparently use rows, but the effect is the same:

www.readingtontwp.org/sample_ballot_june_3.pdf

I was under the impression that most counties in New Jersey used rows rather than columns.

Then again, I was a Hunterdon County voter, so I may be biased.  Interesting that Whitman fielded a Freeholder candidate for her slate.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

It's worth noting that virtually all the campaigning in New Jersey primaries is not candidate based, but column based.  It's to protect the machines, of course.

"HUDSON COUNTY ORGANIZATIONAL DEMOCRATS—VOTE COLUMN A"

It's that the "endorsed" candidates have full slates in their columns.  Non-endorsed candidates usually don't.  Those of us who follow New Jersey politics call it "the line."

A Hunterdon County voter can see that the row starting with Pennacchio is the official Hunterdon GOP line.  He's running with a slew of popular incumbents and other county-wide office holders, such as Len Lance, Susan Hoffman, and Erik Peterson.  Dick Zimmer is just...there...by his lonesome.

You may not think that has a huge effect, but you'd be dead wrong.  Miscellaneous Candidate A vs. Miscellaneous Candidate B will typically be an 80–20 blowout if Candidate A has the line.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Looks like its columns in Ocean too.  Here's another sample ballot, showing the "column" form.

http://www.clerk.co.ocean.nj.us/election/08june_files/tomsriver.01.pdf

Zimmer has the GOP line there (which is a major get in a GOP primary).  Andrews and Adler appear together in Column A for Democrats; Lautenberg is in the official Dem column—Column C—though it is missing a candidate for US House.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

For the Ds, the octogenarian by 10 points over the architect of the Iraq War. On the GOP side, the guy who lost to the Torch and a five-time winner of Jeapordy will trounce the Paulite and the crypto-fascist.

Rob Andrews is a pretty busy guy, but I'm quite sure he wasn't there in the situation room planning the war that Frank Lautenberg supported back in the 2002 campaign.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

For the Ds, the octogenarian by 10 points over the architect of the Iraq War. On the GOP side, the guy who lost to the Torch and a five-time winner of Jeapordy will trounce the Paulite and the crypto-fascist.

Zimmer won Jeopardy? Interesting.

He's talking about Rush Holt.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Rush Holt won Jeopardy? Interesting but not surprising. Is there anything that man hasn't done that's intellectually stimulating?

Serve as a U.S. Senator.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Rush Holt won Jeopardy? Interesting but not surprising. Is there anything that man hasn't done that's intellectually stimulating?

Serve as a U.S. Senator.

Good one. Let's keep it that way.

What is your objection to Holt?  I'm shocked you support Andrews, but oppose Holt.

My best guess is that Holt is a heck of a lot more liberal than Andrews.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

True, but (to the best of my knowledge) Holt is one the very,very, very few honest electable politicians in New Jersey (Dick Codey also comes to mind).  After George Norcross, John Lynch, Jon Corzine, Jim McGreevey, Bob Menendez, the Torch, Sharpe James, etc, etc, etc; I would think any honest politician in New Jersey would be welcome.

Setting the bar awful low, aren't we?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

You have to love this piece of filth Lautenberg. I'm watching the repeat of the election coverage on NJN. He was asked about debates with Zimmer. His response? "He has to bring something to the table. I want to hear what he stands for. So far, I know that he stands for lobbying..."

What does that mean? You don't like what he stands for so no debates? Classic. Thank you, New Jersey!

What a brilliant response! Lautenberg is essentially saying, "I refuse to engage in a discussion over our disagreements on the issues because I disagree with my opponent on the issues."

The dude's just older than dirt and was always terrible at debating.  Saying just about anything sounds better than "I'm too old to do this."