NH-ARG: Sununu leads Shaheen by double-digits

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

It'd be interesting if this somehow correlates to the recent poll in the Boston Globe showing that independents are increasingly likely (over the past month) to vote in the GOP primary.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

And, just to be safe, I turned my -15 shares of GOP to win New Hampshire into +25 shares of GOP to win New Hampshire, since some sucker was selling it at 33.4.

I'm hoping to turn some of those shares around once the news hits, make another quick profit on the huge swing in the GOP's favor, and then short the GOP again.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Maybe more people like Sununu now.

I doubt that's the reason.

If this poll is legit, or at least close enough such that Sununu is in the lead (it's hard for an indy poll to be off by 20 points), I'd estimate it's because New Hampshire is intensely focusing on the 2008 Presidential contest.

What does that mean?  Well, it means New Hampshire, more than anywhere else, has already put the Bush administration behind them and are instead focusing on the new crop of Republicans.  If you're excited about Rudy, or McCain, or maybe even Huckabee, you're not focusing on the past failures of Republicans.  You're focused on the future.

And it's the past failures of Republicans that mainly put Democrats into the driver's seat in New Hampshire.

Truth be told, it will be a real challenge for Democrats to make 2008 about Bush.  It's just not the natural way people think.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

She was popular enough to lose the race last time.

2002 was a dream GOP year, and the phone jamming didn't help her numbers either. Any other year and she would've won that race.

Also worthwile to note that New Hamphsire has changed quite a bit politically since then.

2002 may have been a GOP "dream year," but 2006 was a Dem "dream year" in NH that is unlikely to be repeated in 2008.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

She was popular enough to lose the race last time.

2002 was a dream GOP year, and the phone jamming didn't help her numbers either. Any other year and she would've won that race.

Also worthwile to note that New Hamphsire has changed quite a bit politically since then.

2002 may have been a GOP "dream year," but 2006 was a Dem "dream year" in NH that is unlikely to be repeated in 2008.

Well, less than a year out from 2008, the political landscape is largely the same as it was in 2006. Even with Iraq fading in the news, Americans still hate the Republicans. Something big would have to happen for that to change between now and then.

The big thing would be Bush's mandatory retirement.  He simply will not be the dominating issue the way he was in 2006.  People will be focused on the new Republican candidate, not the old one.

The simple fact is that the 2006 landslide was caused by the party-line vote lever.  People were upset at Bush, and a popular Democratic Governor topped the ticket.  Most people just pulled the D party lever, which caused unprecedented Dem gains.

A presidential election on top of the ballot that virtually every poll shows to be darned close all but guarantees people will not be using the Dem party lever to the same extent they were in 2006.  I'd expect the Democratic Pres. candidate to carry the state, but Republicans to gain back a number of seats they honestly had no business losing in 2006.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I don't see why the presumptive GOP nominee has to walk a tightrope—even hardcore GOP supporters have largely abandoned the President over issues like immigration (amnesty!) and Iraq (why won't the President let our troops win?).

Democrats bounced back in the south following the "realignment" of 1994, mostly in 1998.  You may not think it is likely for such a thing to happen in New Hampshire, but like I said, the polls seem to indicate an incredibly tight Presidential race and an incredibly tight Senate race—neither of which seems consistent with what happened in 2006.