New Jersey on UK-Sized Constituencies

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I love the fact that you named one of the districts Cheesequake.

How far did you go out with the Rutherford + The Meadows.  The current EnCap is swinging Rutherford hard-right, while East Rutherford is moving slowly left due to some of the decisions of the mayor.  However, Lyndhurst is conservative as I believe Carlstadt is, but North Arlington is rather liberal.  However, great analysis

All five were within two points of 50-50 in 2004. Rutherford voted 52% Kerry; East Rutherford voted 50% Kerry with Bush on 49%; Bush won North Arlington by 6 votes; Carlstadt and Lyndhurst both voted 50% Bush with Kerry on 49%. That's the entire district, though I considered splitting off some of Kearny to add to the district as its the smallest district in Bergen-Hudson. Easily the most marginal district.

I can't imagine any of them are actually swinging substantially to the right or to the Republicans at anything more than the local level; much of the Republican vote in Southwest Bergen County is the slowly decaying remnant of the Italian-American Republican machine.

Good points, however, I notice towns like Rutherford, East Rutherford, North Arlington, etc. seem to have massive swings one way or the other every decade or so.  They seem to always want change and always think after awhile the other party will bring it, only to be sadly mistaken.  However, what an interesting election that would be.  I assume it would Rich DiLaschio against Bernadette McPherson which would produce an interesting result.  However, if you do not live around that area (which no one besides myself and in proximity Verily does) you have no idea what I am talking about an I apoligize for rambling.

I do, and assume those toss-up districts would still wind up going Democratic thanks to Ferriero's influence and money.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Were being the operative word.  I think the New Jersey/New York GOP's historical lock on the Italian community is all but over.

I don't deny that those towns have Republican mayors...but the 36th District has Republican mayors all over it and Republicans couldn't elect someone district-wide to save their lives.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Were being the operative word.  I think the New Jersey/New York GOP's historical lock on the Italian community is all but over.

I don't deny that those towns have Republican mayors...but the 36th District has Republican mayors all over it and Republicans couldn't elect someone district-wide to save their lives.

The fact that we don't have an actual candidate certainly does not help either.  I think the fact remains that the disaster with EnCap coupled with the property tax disaster is going to push Rutherford to where it votes about 55% Republican, coupled with other marginally Republican towns to the point where Republicans squeak out a slim, slim victory.  My point is also that the election would certainly be competitive.  I'm still a little confused, however, how far this district stretches.  Does it include towns like Wood Ridge and Hasbrouck Heights that I cannot speak to their voting patterns?

Both are swing towns, but Hasbrouck Heights has had much stronger GOP showings than Wood-Ridge has over recent history, IIRC.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Morristown and Bernardsville would be safe Republican.  Madison and Whippany would be competitive and Parsippany leans Democratic and Dover leans Republican.  Morris County has very few Democratic areas and on your map they are often offset by Republican areas.  Parsippany is moderately liberal but Boonton and Mountain Lakes are very conservative, Hanover and East Hanover are liberal but Chatham and Madison are very conservative.

I think I agree with this.  I'd expect all the Morris Co. districts to have elected Republicans in 2003, but as Morris starts looking more and more competitive, I'd expect Democrats to have targeted a few in 2007.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

(And as far as Union County goes, I'd expect Westfield/NP to lean Republican, Roselle/Cranford to be competitive but Democratic, and Summit/Millburn to be in the Democratic column come 2007.  All the rest are largely safe Democrat, with the incompatible town of Plainfield totally overwhelming nominally Republican Scotch Plains.  (Just like they're currently overwhelmed in the 22nd right now!)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Here's Somerset County:

All but Bound Brook/Somerset (which leans Democratic) are Republican.  Somerville would probably be somewhat competitive, but still GOP.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Here's Somerset County:

All but Bound Brook/Somerset (which leans Democratic) are Republican.  Somerville would probably be somewhat competitive, but still GOP.

I'm going to have to disagree with you on this one. Somerset County as a whole is about R+1. The Somerset South West district is easily R+10, which means the rest of the county leans marginally Democratic. Of course, some of that is concentrated in Bound Brook and Somerset, which is about D+3 (you're right, I was underestimating the size of Somerset itself), but Somerville should also be about D+3 with the Democratic-leaning Somerville, Raritan and Manville balancing out the GOP-leaning Bridgewater. North Plainfield and Far Hills contains Democratic areas in the east but is probably around R+5 overall. The Somerset areas of Morristown and Bernardsville should be around R+3; Bernardsville is marginal, but the Bernards Twp areas are Republican.

On a whole though, where it counts, those marginal places still elect Republicans on the local level.

If Somerville has a Republican mayor, I'd guess Somerville would have a Republican MP.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Obviously, in Mercer, all but Hamilton would be Democratic.  The Republican-leaning towns on the Hunterdon border would be totally overwhelmed by the Princeton slug of super Dems.