Corzines Approval Ratings Skyrocket

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

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Lautenberg won by 9 points in 2002.  Though entirely irrelevant to most conversations, I frequently like to mention the fact that Lautenberg has never won by double digits because he's a cranky old man and I don't like him.

And yes, it's probably for the best you give up all hope on New Jersey unless Bob Torricelli hits the comeback trail.  (...and you know he wants to!)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Remember, folks - every gubernatorial election in New Jersey since 1982 has voted for the opposition party of the incumbent President.

So when Corzine starts looking vulnerable, it's not a time to cheer if you're a Republican.

In 1985, New Jersey re-elected Governor Tom Kean (R).  Ronald Reagan (R) was President.

Re-write that, then to say that every Gubernatorial election since 1989... and then remember that there's probably no connection between the two.  Florio didn't lose because of Clinton (and McGreevey sure as hell didn't either!); Schundler didn't lose because of Bush, and neither did Forrester.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Schundler didn't lose because of Bush, and neither did Forrester.

Bush did play quite a significant role in Forrester's loss.

I disagree.  Forrester played a much more significant role in Forrester's loss.  He was an awkward, terrible candidate who didn't know how to handle the abortion issue, and then his handling of Corzine's ex-wife was absolutely disgraceful and disgusting...and enough to sink a number of Republicans downballot, like Declan O'Scanlon.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Which I don't understand. Obviously, I wasn't old enough at the time, but, from what I've heard, Florio did only good things. (I remember hearing the story of the man who crusaded against Florio's tax readjustment only to discover that he would pay lower taxes under Florio's plan; he then denied that his taxes would be lower and kept on it.)

Ah, youth.  Here's your explanation:

He rammed through a tax hike without selling the public that one was necessary;

He rammed a tax hike through the legislature mere months after finishing a Gubernatorial Campaign where he insisted no tax hikes would be needed;

He rammed through a tax hike that was twice as large as needed to cover the state shortfall -- it was supposed to eliminate the need for having to hike taxes before the 1991 midterm elections and face the wrath of the voters (didn't work, Democrats got slaughtered by epic proportions anyway).

He rammed through a tax hike in the middle of a significant economic recession;

He rammed through a tax hike which took effect on the same day as the final of President Reagan's Social Security tax hikes, so regardless of whether or not it was Florio's fault, everyone's taxes went up on that fateful day in July;

and, he rammed through a tax hike that was so broad and far reaching that everyone was affected immediately in a negative way with no short term gain (property tax cuts were promised, but any realization of those cuts were at least a year away).  He boosted the sales tax (which everyone pays, regardless of income), he boosted the income tax (which hit the upper-middle class), and he instituted the much ridiculed tax on toilet paper because he wouldn't face down the cable industry and raise taxes on them, instead.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Corzine won because:

-at the time he was rather popular as a senator
-Doug Forrester was a terrible candidate
-He's a Democrat in New Jersey

but President Bush didn't help.

Nor did he help Forrester in 2002 when he was actually popular.

Blaming Forrester's loss on Bush is just a lame cop-out.  I've met Forrester.  I've talk to Forrester one-on-one.  Forrester is a nice guy and a decent human being with the type of moderate political views that

But he's a terrible candidate who made some very bad campaign decisions.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Corzine won because:

-at the time he was rather popular as a senator
-Doug Forrester was a terrible candidate
-He's a Democrat in New Jersey

Republican fundraisers would do well to skip ahead to that third one.

And pay no heed to the first, since Corzine was never especially popular as Senator.  He frequently topped Torricelli and Lautenberg in approvals, but that's really not saying much.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I originally thought Corzine could be vulnerable in 2009, but I am now beginning to doubt that.  New Jersey is a Democratic state at heart - as demonstrated by 2006. 

Idk, here's my thoughts:

After 2001, I was not at all upset even though Schundler lost by a lot, I thought it was just a temporary funk.  In 2002, I again found a scapegoat that Forrester had been destroyed by the illegal ballot switch.  Things again began to look good in 2004 when Bush seemed to make NJ close and thought things would be looking up.  I had high hopes that Murphy could take the governor's race, or maybe Schundler, but Forrester I knew was a bad candidate.  2006 looked promising at the start, but I don't know if it was really that bad considering NJ liberalism+idiot candidate+2006 being 94 redux=8% point win.  Maybe things aren't as bad as people think, if Murphy is the nominee and chooses someone like Atlantic County Assemblyman or Freeholder, he could seriously win.

After the 2007 legislative elections, I'm highly doubting that the GOP will have any Atlantic County Assemblymen left.  Besides, is the best choice for Lieutenant Governor some freshman Assemblyman?

The best play for the 2009 GOP nominee will be to pick someone to balance the ticket ideologically.   Bill Baroni is a great choice for #2 because of his "reformer" credentials -- but especially because he is pro-life, which will placate the oft cranky base.  Another good choice might be Diane Allen, if the top of the ticket skews more conservative: the GOP needs to win in highly competitive and populous Burlington County, and with her running on the ticket, Burlington should be in the bag.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Baroni is too high profile and thinking about his own future too much to except the Lt. Gov. spot.  However, Diane Allen would be a good choice.  Another one might be Paul DiGaetano if he is interested.

Paul DiGaetano?  Only if you think New Jersey Republicans are truly suicidal.  DiGaetano is a major player in the caustic and cancerous Bergen County Republican Party -- an ally of the Talarico regime.

Any future GOP candidate in New Jersey would do well to marginalize that feud as much as possible.