It will be interesting just how many write-ins are valid and are for Murkowski. Based on the 13,000 lead, Murkowski is heavily favored of course, but we won't know for sure till 1) we know whether the absentees increase or decrease Miller's deficit (could go either way), 2) how many write ins are thrown out, and 3) how many write-ins are for Murko. Joe Miller appearently will have some write-ins as well and after criticism, the Lt. Governor has decided to count those for him, after initially saying he wouldn't. There will also be write-ins potentially for Scott McAdams. Not to mention 100 valid write-in candidates.
I'd be willing to bet that three quarters of those write-in candidates didn't get a single vote. They're Miller voters who tried to f- up the system. I'd be stunned if Murkowski didn't win. Her lead may shrink by 1 or 2 points, but that's assuming a lot of voter error.