Suffolk U.: Corzine up 9 in real headscratcher

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This poll seems... quite inexplicable.  But whatever, full disclosure even of bad polls, right?

http://www.politickernj.com/wallye/34486/poll-includes-all-12-gubernatorial-candidates-has-daggett-7

Gov. Jon Corzine leads Christopher Christie 42%-33% among likely voters, with 7% for Christopher Daggett, according to a Suffolk University poll released today.  Nine other independent candidates were included in the poll, with Jason Cullen, Alvin Lindsay and Gary Steele each receiving 1% of the vote.

Corzine has favorables of 45%-46%, while Christie is at 34%-46%.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

When I talked to Quinnipiac University about doing just this a few weeks ago—including all 12 candidates in the same poll—they said they decided against it for reasons that it hurts the accuracy of the topline numbers.  Their 1997 poll of Whitman/McGreevey/Entire Field accurately showed the support of Murray Sabrin (L), but failed to come close to the end result with regard to McGreevey and Whitman's numbers.

Perhaps that can be said about this poll too: It's a good look into Daggett's real support (I'd say 7% is about spot-on at this point) without being a worthy D vs. R poll.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Turns out all the claims that Corzine would end up winning were correct..

Well now, hold on.  This election hasn't happened yet.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The director of the Monmouth poll calls this poll BS.

http://monmouthpoll.blogspot.com/2009/10/understanding-unaffiliated-voters.html

Thats not the only problem of this poll. Looking through the crosstabs:

Corzine also leads 35-31-10 among Independents, while in almost every other poll Christie was ahead among Independents by 15-25.

So that poll is probably a crazy outlier.

Well, it may not be the 1-in-20 outlier so much as it may be a bad methodology outlier.  Or it could just be the inflated number of "undecideds" will vote Republican in disproportionate number and that a more aggressive poll would have moved them toward Christie.

Whatever.  It's probably not worth wasting too much time on this poll when there will be plenty of more reputable ones (including the intriguingly even-handed PPP) in the coming days.

PS: I'm still very interested in finding the best way to poll a race with a solid third-party candidate in it such as this one.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Solved the mystery: This poll assumes turnout at a healthy 93% of registered voters!

Actual turnout will be 50%.