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Author Topic: Pennsylvania Voter Registration  (Read 21377 times)
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,547


« on: March 27, 2008, 07:49:12 PM »

Yep, but the Bucks margin has dropped from 21k to just 9k if my math is right...

Very interesting.  That means that PA-08 finally has a Dem majority of registered voters since the portions of Philly and Montgomery in the district are very heavily Democratic. 
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,547


« Reply #1 on: March 28, 2008, 11:51:23 AM »

Yep, but the Bucks margin has dropped from 21k to just 9k if my math is right...

Very interesting.  That means that PA-08 finally has a Dem majority of registered voters since the portions of Philly and Montgomery in the district are very heavily Democratic. 

I'm about 90% sure that the Montco part is still Republican when it comes to registration and the parts of NE Philly that Murphy has aren't "very heavily" Democratic.

Oh come on, even Ginny Shrader took 55% in the Montco part in 2004.  You may be right about the NE Philly part though. 
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,547


« Reply #2 on: March 28, 2008, 12:20:54 PM »

Yep, but the Bucks margin has dropped from 21k to just 9k if my math is right...

Very interesting.  That means that PA-08 finally has a Dem majority of registered voters since the portions of Philly and Montgomery in the district are very heavily Democratic. 

I'm about 90% sure that the Montco part is still Republican when it comes to registration and the parts of NE Philly that Murphy has aren't "very heavily" Democratic.

Oh come on, even Ginny Shrader took 55% in the Montco part in 2004.  You may be right about the NE Philly part though. 

Those areas were deliberately added to PA 08 because the GOP thought Greenwood could hold them...and thus remove a more democratic section of PA13 and make it "winnable"

I'm sure they looked at past results, but also at registration figures

That appears to be the case, but it seems kind of pointless as the 2002 redistricting actually raised the Gore % from 54% in the old PA-13 to 56% in the new district.  If they were trying to make it more winnable they would have added Republican parts of Berks or Chester, not Democratic NE Philly. 
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,547


« Reply #3 on: March 28, 2008, 03:07:53 PM »

Yep, but the Bucks margin has dropped from 21k to just 9k if my math is right...

Very interesting.  That means that PA-08 finally has a Dem majority of registered voters since the portions of Philly and Montgomery in the district are very heavily Democratic. 

I'm about 90% sure that the Montco part is still Republican when it comes to registration and the parts of NE Philly that Murphy has aren't "very heavily" Democratic.

Oh come on, even Ginny Shrader took 55% in the Montco part in 2004.  You may be right about the NE Philly part though. 

Those areas were deliberately added to PA 08 because the GOP thought Greenwood could hold them...and thus remove a more democratic section of PA13 and make it "winnable"

I'm sure they looked at past results, but also at registration figures

That appears to be the case, but it seems kind of pointless as the 2002 redistricting actually raised the Gore % from 54% in the old PA-13 to 56% in the new district.  If they were trying to make it more winnable they would have added Republican parts of Berks or Chester, not Democratic NE Philly. 

Well, IIRC, they removed more parts of montco and NE from PA 13 and put them in PA 08.

As for moving chester and berks...could they?  Where does Gerlach's district cover?

They would not have been able to make Gerlach's district. 
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,547


« Reply #4 on: April 07, 2008, 07:18:27 PM »

It has finally happened. As of yesterday, Montgomery county, PA is now officially a Democratic county - http://www.kyw1060.com/Montco-Swings-from-Red-to-Blue-For-This-Primary/1950555


Oh, and Centre county (home of Penn State's main campus) has made the switch, too.

I also heard Bucks county now made the switch as well.  I bet Patrick Murphy is smiling. 
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