NJ Legislature 2023 midterms

[Mr.Phips]

Republicans probably flip two Senate seats and four Assembly seats-specifically that Camden County and that Monmouth-Ocean districts with the retiring Democrats.

Otherwise, I think the Virginia state elections are a better indicator of what might be in store for next year.

Though the issues in both states seem pertinent. New Jersey Democrats are going all-in on Dobbs. We'll see how it pans out versus Virginia where the higher likelihood of a GOP trifecta makes the issue more salient.

New Jersey is still a state where lower turnout elections benefit the GOP, so I don't think it will work as well here.

Democrats don’t hold any Monmouth-Ocean Assembly districts (they technically have the senate seat due to the party switching Dem).  It’s Republicans that are at risk in the Dem leaning Monmouth Assembly seat.

Also keep in mind that the Camden/Gloucester seat with the retiring Dems still went for Biden by 7.

[Mr.Phips]

It's hard to imagine Republican's gaining either house unless democrat turnout absolutely crashes from prior years.

2021 was an almost perfect year for Republicans with high Republican turnout and they didn't come particular close to flipping either house. Republican's have been hammering on culture war issues but it feels like NJ would be a state where that type of thing doesn't play all that well. On the flip side, NJ probably has the NY problem where dem leaning voters arent worried about abortion rights being taken away, so the issue doesn't boost turn out.

If seats like SD-11 and SD-38 didn’t flip in a year like 2021, they won’t this year.   SD-04 is a different story as Dems stupidly agreed to make it less Dem (they should have instead agreed to make Durr safer) and the incumbent retired.

[Mr.Phips]

The early vote is eerily similar to both 2022 and 2021 so far.

18 days to the election:
2021: 238K, D+43.8 (65.5-21.7)
2022: 292K, D+45.0 (65.7-20.7)
2023: 241K, D+44.8 (66.0-21.8 )

Expecting a result similar to 2022.  Independents won’t be as Republican as 2021.

[Mr.Phips]

To me, it seems like we're likely on track for a basically redux of 2021 in terms of seats won, outside of a few shifts. I do think Durr is likely headed for defeat, but outside of that, it seems mostly business as usual.

If Durr loses (I still don’t think he does), that means Dems almost certainly hold SD-04 and it’s assembly seats, meaning Dems probably have small gains in both chambers.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1722764386148704733

Provisionals are likely to be more Dem leaning.