This could be a shocker if everything goes right for Democrats (including a good national environment), but I don’t see any way Pressley wins while Beshear loses. My current guess would be about Reeves +6, since Pressley getting 46% is actually quite believable. Likely R for now, probably closer to Lean than Safe out of caution, but this will still be an uphill climb.
"I don’t see any way JBE wins while Conway loses" — 90% of this forum in 2015
Gubernatorial races don’t correlate — different candidates, different campaign styles.
Much easier to paint Beshear as a liberal/establishment/party hack than Pressley, who’s basically running a religious/Bible-themed campaign.
Also, JBE literally won by double digits in 2015 in a "bad national environment" for Democrats!
JBE won in a runoff about a month after the regular elections. Later runoffs have different dynamics than regular Election Day races.
