Swann V. Altmire + PA U.S House predictions

[Mr.Phips]

All incumbents likely have the edge with the exception of Chris Carney in PA-10.  He has a chance as the incumbent, but he will need to work very hard to be reelected.

[Mr.Phips]

PA-18 is about as GOP-leaning as PA-04 and I think Melissa Hart was a superior incumbent.  With a decent opponent, Murphy would have been history.  I think the race only leans his way.

They both have huge Dem registration advantages.  I good challenger could give Murphy a real race.

[Mr.Phips]

Looks like Lynn Swann might run against Altmire. Swann is a charismatic, attractive minority candidate who is still popular  in this part of Pennsylvania with those who remember him from his playing days with the Steelers.  Does Swann's interest signify that Melissa Hart is bowing out of a rematch?

Is Altmire the right type (culturally conservative, fiscally moderate) Democrat to hold this district? I think Rep. Altmire is a lot like Ron Klink, who was a perfect fit for this working class district. I wouldn't be surprised if Altmire's political career mimicked that of Jim Gerlach, a tempting target that remains elusive and dashes his opponents hearts every two years.

For the record, here are my current views of the PA House Races that could be competitive:

PA-04: Leans Democratic

PA-06: Slightly Leans GOP. I hope Republicans don't view Mr. 51% as having an impregnable advantage. For all the GOPers who think he's invincible, they should take note of Anne Northup. For all the Democrats who think he'll be knocked off in '08, look no further than another Republican woman in a swing district, Heather Wilson.

PA-07: Likely Democratic. Curt Weldon easily held this seat for 20 years until he was unceremoniously dumped by political neophyte Joe Sestak. Admiral Sestak's impressive showing is evidence of his likely staying power. He'll also benefit from the collapse of the GOP machine in Delaware County which parallels the GOP's downfall in Nassau County, NY.

PA-08: Slightly Leans Democratic. This and IA-02 were the only races I was actually disappointed the Democrat won. Rep. Patrick Murphy has deftly purveyed his military experience into a high-profile role as the de facto spokesman fro the House Democrats on Iraq. I actually think the Democratic members of the "Near Miss Club" such as Linda Stender, Larry Kissell, Dan Maffei, Darcy Burner, Tessa Hafen, Mary Jo Kilroy and more have a better chance of winning than the GOP incumbents like Jim Ryun and Mike Fitzpatrick who are seeking revenge. If Barack Obama is the Democratic standbearer and the war in Iraq is still the paramount issues, expect Murphy to win.

PA-10: Pure Toss-Up.  Only in the perverse world of computer generated gerrymandered congressional districts can disgraced Rep. Don Sherwood  win 47% in the terrific Democratic year of 2006 despite allegations that committed the reprehensible and inexplicable act of choking his mistress. Jake has pointed out that this district has a 50% solid GOP registration edge. If Chris Carney can continue to distance himself from Nancy Pelosi and the ultra-liberal Democratic House leadership, he'll have a chance of holding this conservative and fiercely partisan district.  Jason Altmire must follow the path of Ron Klink, Jim Gerlach needs to eat lunch with the likes of Heather Wilson and Robin Hayes and Chris Carney must channel the political magic of Tim Holden.

PA-15: Leans GOP. Don't listen to the DCCC --  Charlie Dent is not vulnerable. Charlie Dent is a member of the dying breed of socially moderate Republican in the mold of Mark Kirk and Mike Castle. When they retire, like their fellow part outcasts the Dixiecrats, they will be replaced by someone from the other party. Unless the Democrats nab a strong recruit and the Republican malaise continues, expect Dent to continue his promising career though 2008.

PA-18: Likely GOP The Rep. Tim Murphy scandal is simply too complicated for average voters to grasp. I'm convinced the only scandals voters understand are sex scandals (Clinton and Foley) or corruption (DeLay and Ney). Murphy's district is solildy red and will insulate him from any polititical fallout.

Im sorry Phil, but Pat Murphy is not going to lose as an incumbent.  He has raised a ton of money(nearly $400,000 already) and all he would have to do to beat Fitzpartick is tie him to the very right wing Republican leadership and remind voters of how he was always there when Bush needed him.

[Mr.Phips]

Im sorry Phil, but Pat Murphy is not going to lose as an incumbent.  He has raised a ton of money(nearly $400,000 already) and all he would have to do to beat Fitzpartick is tie him to the very right wing Republican leadership and remind voters of how he was always there when Bush needed him.

I agree at this point but things can change. Fitz did an excellent job pointing out his independence last time around. He wasn't "always there when Bush needed him."

Maybe he wasn't, but you can be sure that Democrats and Murphy will use this arguement for all that its worth.

[Mr.Phips]

Has Mark Schweiker sworn off elected office? He could be a strong challenger.

Schweiker is making tons of money now, too.

By the way, I believe Mr. Phips pointed out that Murphy now has about $400,000 from fundraising. An article published today has Fitz at around $640,000.

Can I see the article?  That amount does not seem anywhere near correct.  Even Jeb Bradley, who wants to win back NH-01, has only raised $7,000 so far.

[Mr.Phips]

Has Mark Schweiker sworn off elected office? He could be a strong challenger.

Schweiker is making tons of money now, too.

By the way, I believe Mr. Phips pointed out that Murphy now has about $400,000 from fundraising. An article published today has Fitz at around $640,000.

Can I see the article?  That amount does not seem anywhere near correct.  Even Jeb Bradley, who wants to win back NH-01, has only raised $7,000 so far.

My mistake! I misread the article. It said that at this point last year that's how much Fitz had on hand (which is double what Murphy has now). Tell me if you'd still like to see the article.

Id still enjoy looking at it.

[Mr.Phips]

Hart told Roll Call that Swann possibly being in the race won't stop her from running. Many of us have known that Hart would be back but I think this is proof that she's in to anyone foolish enough to dispute a comeback.

She is still thinking about.  It is assumed that she is looking at the national landscape, which does not look at all good for Republicans.

[Mr.Phips]

I say this, with all partisan politics aside, Altmire is a bafoon and an idiot... I know those words mean pretty much the same thing, but I figured I would just hammer in the point... who only one that district because of a pro-Democratic climate and the fact that Hart didn't believe she was vulnerable until the last month of the race (according to the polls, she really wasn't, but she should have been more careful regardless).  Almost any big name GOPer who runs for that seat wins it back, IMO.  If Swann ran, he would win, albeit not by an huge margin, but he would still win.  Hart would probably take it back with 8% to spare, at least.

I would not be so sure.  This is historically a very Democratic district with a huge 55%-32% Dem registration advantage.  Even George W. Bush, when Republicans turned out every possible voter and then some, only managed to get 53% in 2004. 

[Mr.Phips]

This is historically a very Democratic district

Yes, but the boundaries were gerrymandered in 2002 to make Hart safer; it now includes pretty much all of the northern third of Allegheny county (very white collar, very Republican) while losing some working class towns from Westmoreland county, with the effect of shifting the district from being a working class and fundamentally Democratic district (albeit one with affluent and Republican pockets here and there) to a socially polarised marginal.

The 2002 gerrymander did very little to change the party percentages is the district.  The only Republican portion of the district is the Allegheny county portion.  All Altmire has to do is win all of the counties and stay above 38% in Allegheny and he wins with about 55% of the vote.

[Mr.Phips]

She is still thinking about.  It is assumed that she is looking at the national landscape, which does not look at all good for Republicans.

Mr. Phips, it is pretty clear that she is running. She wouldn't make these statements otherwise. Plus, I have pretty good sources which, I can assure you, are much better than your's. I can only say so much though and hopefully you will respect - not mock - me for that.

Well if she is running, she better have raised at least $150,000 by now which is half of what Altmire raised in the first quarter.

[Mr.Phips]

Carney has not distanced himself from Pelosi and Co. in any way so far. There are editorials every other day in every Northeast PA paper about Carney being a liberal, voting to raise taxes, opposing the war, voting for stem cell research, etc. This time next year, the mood will be apparent, but it's still too early to judge.

I would bet you a million dollars that eight out of every ten of those editorials is an NRCC plant.