New Jersey 2008

[Mr.Phips]

No

Bush received a decent sized 9/11 bounce in NJ, which is over and done with as far as the GOP is concerned.

Jersey is known for polling quite a bit more GOP than they actually vote.

Giuliani would make it closer than the others, but his views on Iraq (and its very unlikely it won't be a major issue in 08) will hurt him.

This is true.  A lot of polls in 2004 showed the state nearly tied between Bush and Kerry and ended up going to Kerry by seven.  Some polls also showed Tom Kean tied or even ahead of Bob Menendez in 2006 and Menendez won by nine points.

[Mr.Phips]

Hah...New York's Upstate isnt that conservative...


Could Giuliani feasibly win over South Jersey (the winnable parts)...Burlington Co...etc...enough to win him New Jersey if the North remains the same?

Guiliani would probably win those counties.  He best shot at winning is winning Bergen and capturing 40% in Essex or Hudson and breaking 60 in Sussex

But he wouldn't. Giuliani would win Bergen and Somerset, but he'd lose Burlington and maybe even Ocean and all of South Jersey while only running 1% or so ahead of Bush 2004 in North Jersey. Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, these are not counties that will vote as strongly for Giuliani's weird liberal-authoritarian social policies as they did for Bush, and nor will Atlantic, Cumberland, Cape May. He'd do best in the wealthy areas, but strength in Somerset, Morris and Bergen can't make up for losses elsewhere.

Would he likely lose LoBiondo's district?