I would say Dems are slightly favored in 2024 and if a Dem wins the Presidency, they will likely have a Dem House.
NC: Rs will gain 3 to 4. I wonder if they might just go 10-4 instead of 11-3, the trends in Johnston County were not terribly great (Budd only matched Trump) and that 4th district they originally proposed could backfire in an R midterm.
OH: I expect a Cincy pack, 12-3 or 11-3-1.
NY: Dems need to try to get their 22-4 map back, this would erase everything the GOP does in other states.
MN: I would be very aggressive here. This is a lean blue state that should be treated like one. Go 6-2, make MN-1 a south twin cities to Rochester Dem seat and the 8th a Duluth to St. Paul snake.
WI: If Dems win the Supreme Court, the state legislative maps and abortion bans are out. I would also go for a 4-4 map with western Dane in WI-3 and part of Milwaukee in the 1st.
There are also so many more opportunities for team blue. Fitzpatrick or Bacon not running would lead to flips, CA-27, 41, 45 in a presidential with better candidates can flip. NJ-7 also might be a problem if Trump is on the ballot, Kean will have to be the person he's been as a State Senator, not in primaries. Not to mention OR-5, AZ-1,6 (assuming 2022 GOP wins).
The Dems really can’t argue against the WI House map. It’s pretty evenhanded but geography is just awful for Dems in the state. You’d need a hideous gerrymander to get a 4-4 Dem map.
I doubt MN Dems do a redraw there.
If Republicans try for something worse than 9-5 in NC and 11-4 in OH, Dems absolutely need to reopen NY. They won’t have a choice.