In what states does current growth and demographic changes favor Republicans?

[Mr.Phips]

Florida, Florida, Florida. Think about all those counties in the Central and Southwest Florida that are magnets for conservative retirees. That's why the state has become so difficult for Democrats, although I think it's still within reach if they get their s**t together.

Really it seems like the only good news in FL for Dems is what has happened in Orlando, and in Duval County though the Jacknsonville area as a whole is still a net for Rs because of St. Johns county. I would say in particular the Southwest coast of Florida has seen some pretty insane influxes of retirees with the counties staying pretty R politically.

We’re at the point in FL where double digit wins in Duval and Seminole probably wouldn’t be enough for Dems to win statewide given the trends and growth elsewhere.

[Mr.Phips]

If Des Moines were to go full Madison, would Iowa be colelatgive again, even if Demc continue to slide in rurals? Issue is it isn’t as much college-based but still just food for thought

No, people tend to overestimate how much one area can move the margin—this only works if its share of the overall population is similar to Metro Atlanta or the Twin Cities.

Even if you apply the most generous, preposterous scenario and shift each of Polk, Dallas and Story's margins 35% to the left without even touching the rest of the state, Trump still outright wins. Altogether, those three counties only cast about 20% of the state's votes, and it would take like half a century for it to even reach 1/3. Bliowa is impossible if rurals continue swinging right

Yes, this only works in select cases.  This is also why NC still hasn't flipped.

Applying the RGV trend to Clark County, NV though...

Probably more likely to see a Miami Dade type trend there where it’s only voting low to mid single digits for Dems.