Generic Ballot Observations

[Mr.Phips]

Youth turnout for the dems is going to be odious in 2022, worse than 2010 and 2014 probably (as % of the vote)

Biden was never the candidate of the youth, and he really hasn't delivered much for them.

Youth turnout was pretty much rock bottom in 2010/2014.  Hard to get much worse than that.

[Mr.Phips]

This says it all in the Morning Consult poll

Among Independents: 34% approve, 59% disapprove
Among Independents: 30% Democrat, 29% Republican

The generic ballot at this point is more ridiculously misleading than it has been in any other election.

In November 2018, Trump's approval was -9, and Dems led in the generic ballot by 7-8 points. Now, Biden's approval is -12, and R's only lead by... 1? Ok Jan. For whatever reason, these people just do not want to say they'd rather vote Republican, unlike in 2017-2018 when they were perfectly comfortable saying they'd vote Democrat. I can understand with how much dems and the media are going in with their shaming and social desirability campaign, but it's fairly obvious to those of us who've seen this movie before that these people will break overwhelmingly one way. It's just a shame because the misleading polling is going to be used by political hacks to craft a false narrative.

Is it possible people really dislike Biden's presidency but aren't ready to hand the keys back to the Republicans?

Of course. I'm one of these people.

As am I.

[Mr.Phips]

This says it all in the Morning Consult poll

Among Independents: 34% approve, 59% disapprove
Among Independents: 30% Democrat, 29% Republican

The generic ballot at this point is more ridiculously misleading than it has been in any other election.

In November 2018, Trump's approval was -9, and Dems led in the generic ballot by 7-8 points. Now, Biden's approval is -12, and R's only lead by... 1? Ok Jan. For whatever reason, these people just do not want to say they'd rather vote Republican, unlike in 2017-2018 when they were perfectly comfortable saying they'd vote Democrat. I can understand with how much dems and the media are going in with their shaming and social desirability campaign, but it's fairly obvious to those of us who've seen this movie before that these people will break overwhelmingly one way. It's just a shame because the misleading polling is going to be used by political hacks to craft a false narrative.

Is it possible people really dislike Biden's presidency but aren't ready to hand the keys back to the Republicans?

Of course. I'm one of these people.

As am I.

The people who are undecided about 2022 are not partisan Democrats like yourselves who are upset with Biden's lack of accomplishments (they are closer to the #VoteBlueNoMatterWho types because "Trumpism is an existential threat"), they are independents who have nuanced priorities and perspectives, who care about economic issues (not "voting rights" - a partisan Dem issue), people who voted for Biden but have soured greatly on him. Barely anybody on this forum fits that description, but the best fit would be Cathrina (who, is still far more favorable of Dems than the average voter).

This is an accurate description of me. I'm not someone who is bonded to either political party, and I tend to vote for the individual, the person who I view as most competent or as most effective at doing the job (although I do have some biases against some politicians). I am concerned about the economy and about pandemic restrictions, and those are the primary issues for me. And as you note, I disapprove of Biden now and can't stand Harris or many of the other people in his Administration.

So you are actually going to vote Republican?