2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[Mr.Phips]

I dunno, I'd still be worried about losing that district if I'm Ami Bera, given his rather corrupt track record and the tendency of affluent historically Republican suburbs to go back to their roots, as seen in Orange County last year.

Bera can probably take a hit of a point or two and still be OK even in 2022.  Anymore than that becomes quite problematic.

[Mr.Phips]

From what we now know, how many Trump districts do y'all think are in the map? 5? 7? 9?

Started putting it into VRA. Issa goes from Trump+8 to Biden+6, Young Kim goes from Biden+10 to Biden+8, Steel goes from Biden+2 to Trump+0. So in OC/SD, Issa flips to Biden but Steel (by like 700 votes) flips to Trump.

What happens to Garcia, Porter, and Levin?

[Mr.Phips]

Do we think 42-10 is the most likely outcome here?

GOP wins:
*The Issa seat
*The Calvert seat
*The Obernolte seat
*The McCarthy seat
*The McClintock seat
*The LaMalfa seat
*The open CA-5 bordering the bluer seat that Harder's gonna run in
*The new competitive seat where Steel is running (CA-45)
*The new competitive seat where Kim is running (CA-40)
*And the blue seat that Valadao holds but routinely over-performs in by a lot

While Dems hold all the safe blue seats, take down Garcia in his now even bluer seat, and the Biden +lowdoubledigit seats where Porter, Harder, Levin will run

For a net outcome of R-1, D+0

I’m guessing 41-11 with Garcia surviving.