2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama

[Mr.Phips]

I just drew a nice AL map that has two 50%+ BCVAP CD's that does not even look particularly ugly. The best scenario for the news this afternoon is for MN to retain an 8th seat I think. AL retaining a 7th CD will most likely mean a second minority performing CD, by the time SCOTUS does its thing at least, assuming it does not reverse Gingles.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/457311a7-6b54-4fd1-a906-4102125c7082

I still don’t understand why the Obama DOJ didn’t push for a 2nd VRA district here.

[Mr.Phips]

If the Republican caucus on the Supreme Court decides to throw out Section 2, I wonder how many African-American representatives will be left in the Deep South. Alabama, Mississippi, maybe South Carolina could go to all white-community choices (who are mostly going to be white, but you occasionally get a Tim Scott who is the candidate of the white community’s choice). There’s a limit to what Georgia can do in Atlanta, and I guess Memphis is too large and wrongly positioned to make sure only white voters get representation there.

Sc literally has a left trending Trump +8 and Trump +9 district. The state is Trump +11.  MS could risk it but I highly doubt they go for it as no one will take Jackson or the Delta. The SE  district is too dense to really crack.
AL is probably the closest to possible but I doubt they go for it.

You’d probably get an insurrection of the state capital in any of these states if representation was actually taken away like this. 

[Mr.Phips]

Biden+7 is not black performing?

I would guess not in midterms due to massive AA turnout dropoff.

Whose fault is it if they choose not to turn out?  The idea that you need to bend over backwards to create an AA percentage as high as possible due to them having lower turnout has always maddened me.  Turnout is a choice that voters themselves control.  A 51% AA district should be enough.

[Mr.Phips]

Politics have went utterly insane.  Somehow maps that were fine when Democrats drew them are now racial gerrymandering.  And the solution to that is more racial gerrymandering?   

Because the Democrats don't want to reach the median voter in the 2nd or the 5th districts? 

If you knew history instead of just "EVERYONE HATES REPUBLICANS" logic you'd know that when VRA districts started being enforced in the 1992 elections that it disproportionately effected Southern Democrats who drew districts to keep White Democrats in office. The 7th district used to elected a White Democrat named Claude Harris Jr. and before that it was *gasps* Richard Shelby when he was still a Democrat.

Democrats trying to reach the median voter in the 5th or the old 2nd is pointless when they can push for a Black majority district that should have existed years ago. The Black population of Alabama is 26% which means that 1.8% of the congressional seats should be Black majority and with rounding that equals 2 seats.

And the 2010 Map was completely fine (and identical demographics wise) to the legislature drawn map.  It was even approved by noted White Supremacist Eric Holder.

Progressives using Lawfare because they can't win the 2nd and 5th instead of you know running moderates. 

The 2010 map was unacceptable too, but the Obama Administration did a poor job at challenging maps that were racial gerrymanders. There should have been two Black majority districts a long time ago.

What is "Lawfare"? Conservatives stay making up new words to complain about things. A moderate Democrat isn't going to win either of those districts. But the lawsuit was about Black representation, not partisanship. Why can't Republicans run a moderate in the new 2nd district?

Yep the Obama DOJ should have refused to preclear the 2011 AL and LA maps and especially the GA map that basically eliminated the black opportunity GA-12.

[Mr.Phips]

There was some discussion about the DOJ forcing a second Black district in Alabama in 2010, but they decided to allow just one because of the concern that pushing too hard on these issues could lead to a court case overturning preclearance (which happened anyway). In any case it was a discussed issue at the time.

What’s the point of having preclearance in the first place if you aren’t going to use it?