Illinois Redistricting Megathread

[Mr.Phips]

For reference, this is how you do a Dem Gerry of Illinois that leave every incumbent who matters with a seat that will be 100% safe for all 10 years. If you think Madigan is above drawing tentacles, I suggest you check out the legislative level maps for Illinois. For the record, I'm just experimenting with the orientation of IL14/16 between these maps, which is why they differ.



Keep current IL03

IL01: 67.5/28 Clinton, D+21.1 CPVI. 48% AA. South Side Base in District.
IL02: 70/26 Clinton, D+22.6 CPVI. 48.3% AA. South Cook suburb Base in District.
IL03: 57.5/37 Clinton, D+8.6 CPVI. Base in LaGrange and SW suburbs in District. Strongest White ethnic precincts removed from district.
IL04: 74/21 Clinton, D+23.6 CPVI. 64.7% Hispanic. SW Hispanic base in district and expands from 2010.
Il05: 63/30 Clinton, D+11.9 CPVI. North Side base dominates district.
IL06: 55.5/37 Clinton, D+5.9 CPVI. Downers Grove and DuPage dominate the seat.
IL07: 81.5/14.5 Clinton, D+33 CPVI. 48.3% AA. Western Chicago AA Base in seat.
IL08: 63/30.5 Clinton, D+13.6 CPVI. Schaumburg suburban base in seat.
IL09: 69/25 Clinton, D+18.6 CPVI. Evanstown base and Northern suburbs control seat.
IL10: 60/33 Clinton, D+8.75 CPVI. Democratic Lake townships control the seat.
IL11: 57.5/35 Clinton, D+7.85 CPVI. Naperville/Aurora/Bolingbrook base remains in Seat.
IL12: 71/23.5 Trump, R+21.3 CPVI. Bost’s home of Murphysboro outside seat. Davis’s home in Christian county in said seat. Miller’s home in Oakland county outside seat.
IL13: 46.7/46.5 Clinton, D+1.15 CPVI. BDL’s base of Springfield in Seat. Main GOP opponent familiar with the district outside the seat.
IL14: 49.5/43 Clinton, D+1.9 CPVI. Underwood home of Naperville in seat. Suburban base remains in seat.
IL15: 57/36 Trump, R+11.6 CPVI. Kinzinger drawn out of seat. LaHood now in unfamiliar seat.
IL16: 51.5/40.5 Clinton, D+5.1 CPVI. Base in Quad cities remains in seat. Seat reinforced from GOP trends with D-trending Bloomington and Champaign.
IL17: 66/27.5 Trump, R+18.8 CPVI. Lahood drawn out of the forgottonia based seat. Miller in a new unfamiliar seat.




Destroy current IL03

IL01: 71/24 Clinton, D+24.6 CPVI. 48.5% AA. South Side Base in District. Destroys SW White ethnics.
IL02: 71/25 Clinton, D+23.1 CPVI. 48% AA. South Cook suburb Base in District. Destroys SW White ethnics.
IL03: 69/26 Clinton, D+19.7 CPVI. 60.8% Hispanic. SW Hispanic base dominates district, with most whites of the GOP persuasion. Newman home in LaGrange removed from seat.
IL04: 68.5/25 Clinton, D+18.3 CPVI. 39.5% Hispanic. Hispanics are a large minority in this new, open seat. GOP parts of DuPage carved up using the district.
Il05: 64.5/28.5 Clinton, D+13.4 CPVI. North Side base dominates district.
IL06: 56/36 Clinton, D+5.95 CPVI. Downers Grove and DuPage dominate the seat, though with a new Aurora addition.
IL07: 82/13 Clinton, D+33.35 CPVI. 48% AA. Western Chicago AA Base in seat.
IL08: 56/38 Clinton, D+7 CPVI. Schaumburg suburban base in seat.
IL09: 67/27 Clinton, D+16.95 CPVI. Evanstown base and Northern suburbs control seat.
IL10: 58/35 Clinton, D+7.2 CPVI. Democratic Lake townships control the seat.
IL11: 57/36 Clinton, D+7.9 CPVI. Naperville/Aurora/Bolingbrook base remains in Seat. Takes in Newman’s home in exchange for Aurora.
IL12: 71/23.5 Trump, R+21.4 CPVI. Bost’s home of Murphysboro outside seat. Davis’s home in Christian county in said seat. Miller’s home in Oakland county outside seat.
IL13: 46.7/46.5 Clinton, D+1.2 CPVI. BDL’s base of Springfield in Seat. Main GOP opponent familiar with the district outside the seat.
IL14: 49/43 Clinton, D+1 CPVI. Underwood home of Naperville in seat. Suburban base remains in seat.
IL15: 59/34 Trump, R+12.9 CPVI. Kinzinger drawn out of seat. LaHood now in unfamiliar seat.
IL16: 50/42 Clinton, D+4.7 CPVI. Base in Quad cities remains in seat. Seat reinforced from GOP trends with D-trending Champaign.
IL17: 66.5/27 Trump, R+18.5 CPVI. Lahood drawn out of the forgottonia based seat. and Miller in a new unfamiliar seat.

Yep.  This is basically what they need to do. 

[Mr.Phips]

Yep.  This is basically what they need to do.  

Kinda hope they don't actually.   I want to see those long tentacle districts become extinct.    You don't see them in newer maps anymore.    I hope public pressure will be enough to discourage them from drawing that stuff.

Well have to see what Republicans do in Florida, Georgia, Indiana, and North Carolina.

[Mr.Phips]

Torie there are decent chances for cleaner IL maps depending if IL D's redistrict the state supreme court. Even if they redistrict they can't split Cook county and at a downballot level suburban D voters might still vote for an R judge.

Dems can easily redraw the 2nd district so that it takes Will county from the 3rd and gives the 3rd the redder counties Western half of Northern Illinois.  That would be a pretty tough district for a Republican to get 60% in (which is needed for retention).

[Mr.Phips]

Torie there are decent chances for cleaner IL maps depending if IL D's redistrict the state supreme court. Even if they redistrict they can't split Cook county and at a downballot level suburban D voters might still vote for an R judge.

Dems can easily redraw the 2nd district so that it takes Will county from the 3rd and gives the 3rd the redder counties Western half of Northern Illinois.  That would be a pretty tough district for a Republican to get 60% in (which is needed for retention).

Easier said than done, Kilbride was the first judge to ever fail retention. I don't really think Suburban D upballot voters are going to kick out a non controversial judge as there wouldn't even be a D on ballot for them to vote for.

If Dems properly ran a non retention campaign like Republicans did against Kilbride, they would have a decent chance.

[Mr.Phips]

Torie there are decent chances for cleaner IL maps depending if IL D's redistrict the state supreme court. Even if they redistrict they can't split Cook county and at a downballot level suburban D voters might still vote for an R judge.

Dems can easily redraw the 2nd district so that it takes Will county from the 3rd and gives the 3rd the redder counties Western half of Northern Illinois.  That would be a pretty tough district for a Republican to get 60% in (which is needed for retention).

Easier said than done, Kilbride was the first judge to ever fail retention. I don't really think Suburban D upballot voters are going to kick out a non controversial judge as there wouldn't even be a D on ballot for them to vote for.

If Dems properly ran a non retention campaign like Republicans did against Kilbride, they would have a decent chance.

Of course, can't deny that although IIRC Kilbride was involved with some corruption regarding Madigan which might have been what took him down.

Also northern Illinois rural areas are not ancestrally D unlike Southern IL but that area is too red by now.

Another option would be to redraw the Kilbride district by taking in more of the Chicago suburbs and giving rural areas to the 2nd district.  That way Dems would have a decent chance at retaining the 3rd district without having to try and kick out an incumbent.

[Mr.Phips]

I just barely could get three districts with 50%+ AA CVAP.   There's also no real need for the earmuffs district anymore since a Hispanic majority can easily be made on the south side part of the Hispanic area.

I think the IL Dems should just leave Davenport to a GOP sink and make a Champaign-Bloomington-Peoria district instead and put Rockford with McHenry county to make something close to two swing seats.  Bustos can take her pick which one she wants to run in.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/e648cf3f-49fa-48fd-b08f-4f7b409fb813





11 safe D, 4 safe R, and two tossups (13 and 16)

With current trends the tossups probably end up with the Democrats at some point or another.  In 2022 Bustos would win one  I imagine the GOP would get the other,  down the road both would be dem.

Dems can’t afford to not have 13 safe seats in Illinois given what is going to happen in other states.

[Mr.Phips]

Democrats better find a way out of this and fast

Don’t they have the votes to amend the state constitution?

If not, one way out of this would be to use population estimates (and try to stay within the allowable deviation) to draw the districts.

[Mr.Phips]

Democrats better find a way out of this and fast

Don’t they have the votes to amend the state constitution?

If not, one way out of this would be to use population estimates (and try to stay within the allowable deviation) to draw the districts.

They have supermajorities in both chambers, so theoretically yes, they could amend the state constitution.

Doesn't that require a ballot measure in the end (Fair tax) anyway this is mostly moot.

It’s moot for the congressional lines, but may not be for the legislative ones.

[Mr.Phips]

Good news! The Illinois State Legislature has solved the Census problem by using alternative data.

The census delay is causing havoc for several states, with some shifting map deadlines or election dates, or even suing the Census Bureau in an effort to get data earlier. But the Illinois Constitution’s deadline could not be changed in time to affect the mapmaking process this year.

The state constitution does not really hamper legislators from moving forward despite the census delays, however, because it does not require the use of federal census data in drawing maps, stating only that redistricting occur “following each federal decennial census year.”

That leaves an opening for Democrats to use other sources of population data, including estimates from the federal census’ American Community Survey or private vendor data, to draw map lines.

“It’s pretty clear that you can use estimates and I think if you were to look at case law from other states, you can see that,” said state Rep. Jay Hoffman, a member of both Democratic House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch’s leadership team and the House remap panel.

“You have to lay the groundwork that the estimates are accurate and I would venture to guess that the technology that exists today makes it much more sophisticated and accurate whether using the actual census tract or estimates in maps in the past that have been found constitutional,” said Hoffman, of downstate Swansea.

Hoffman said Democrats have yet to decide what data sources they’ll use for moving forward.

Source

They must have seen my suggestion lol.

[Mr.Phips]

The GOP won the state-legislative coinflip after 1990 and, dutifully, drew a map favorable to the GOP. The Democrats appealed the the Supreme Court who ordered a number of districts redrawn. Some of those districts were struck down as "non-compact."  A significant number of the state's current legislative seats are less compact that the ones struck down in the 90's. If the GOP gains control of the IL Supreme Court they need only follow precedent to strike them down.

Thankfully the Democrats could redraw the State Supreme Court districts before the 2022 election.

Issue though is counties can't be split and Cook is the first 3 districts as mandated by the state constitution which would require an amendment to change. You can still draw 2 Collar county districts but at the judicial level the collars are still relatively speaking swingy. It would improve their chances still but I wouldn't call it a slamdunk.  There is a decent excuse to redistrict as the districts have pretty varying population for the non Cook districts.

You can easily draw a district that doesn’t include Cook county that went for Biden by nearly 20 points.   That’s probably too Dem for Republican to win even in a good year.

[Mr.Phips]

Illinois will be redistricting their Supreme Court districts:

https://twitter.com/joelebert29/status/1397261473181835272?s=20

They’re no dummies.

[Mr.Phips]

I feel like vomiting.

How do you think Dems feel when looking at the NC maps Republicans look likely to draw?

[Mr.Phips]

hideous looking map IL Dems

IL Dems: You don't even know what hideous means

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1449731716910878730

Interestingly though this map is more waveproof than the proposed map lol. I have a feeling the proposed map will be tweaked to shore up at least IL-03 and IL-14 and hopefully IL-17 a little.

Yeah Dems definitely want all three of those districts to be Biden + 10 or better.

[Mr.Phips]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1449811279447740421

Bye Newman
Hello ramirez rosa

She could potentially get through a primary if multiple Hispanic Dems were to run.

[Mr.Phips]

I'd be pretty unhappy if I were Bill Foster. His new district was really close in the GOV and AG races from 2018, and that was a Dem midterm. It will probably trend D as it is exurban, but in a GOP-friendly midterm I feel like it could flip.

Meanwhile, sophomore Lauren Underwood gets a district that is 100% safe.

If a Dem is in trouble in a Biden + 16 district, he shouldn’t be in congress.